A Simulation Shows That Early Treatment Of Chronic Hepatitis B Infection Can Cut Deaths And Be Cost-Effective

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http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/30/2/340.abstract

A Simulation Shows That Early Treatment Of Chronic Hepatitis B Infection Can Cut

Deaths And Be Cost-Effective

E. Post1, Neetu Khurana Sodhi2, Chia-hui Peng3, Kejia Wan4 and Henry J.

Pollack5

+ Author Affiliations

1 E. Post (spost@...) is a medical student at the University

of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, in Philadelphia.

2Neetu Khurana Sodhi is a research associate in the Division of Pediatric

Infectious Diseases at the New York University (NYU) School of Medicine, in New

York City.

3Chia-hui Peng is a data manager in the Division of Pediatric Infectious

Diseases, NYU School of Medicine.

4Kejia Wan is a research coordinator in the Division of Pediatric Infectious

Diseases, NYU School of Medicine.

5Henry J. Pollack is an associate professor of pediatrics at the NYU School of

Medicine.

Abstract

Chronic hepatitis B affects between 800,000 and two million people in the United

States and causes 4,000 deaths each year. Yet the costs and benefits of

treatment have not been fully evaluated. Using a model that simulates disease

progression, we compare treatment programs for hepatitis B that start at an

early stage of the disease to treatment that begins at a late stage. Our

analysis concludes that early hepatitis B care can improve health, reduce

premature deaths, and prevent expensive complications, making it highly

cost-effective in the long term. Our results demonstrate the importance of

screening for hepatitis B among at-risk groups and then linking screening to

treatment. They also illustrate how predictive models can be used to evaluate

strategies for improving access to care.