Vaccination

March 20, 2000

There are more than one type of vaccine for cancer in the works. I have

been following the one on prostate cancer. More info on it at

http://psa-rising.com/medicalpike/vaccinehopkins.htm

luis e mundo <lmund-@...> wrote:

original article:cures for cancer/?start=6549

> Not too long ago I watched in the news about an experimental

vaccination.

> This vaccination consists of a their own patients cells plus a

subtstance

> which I can remember the name of. Does anybody know any info. on this?

> This is being experimented here in the U.S. and Europe.

>

> Thanks

March 20, 2000

writes:

> There are more than one type of vaccine for cancer in the works. I have

> been following the one on prostate cancer. More info on it at

> http://psa-rising.com/medicalpike/vaccinehopkins.htm

,

Yes, such vaccines will work, and they will be eventually approved. In

fact this is the one type of vaccine that will be approved. This is for two

reasons: it is autologous which means that it is individualized for each

patient, and it is very much a supposed " value added " vaccine. The doc was

lying or stupid when he said that he was astounded that it raised every

portion of the immune system. This is easy to do. They were also lying

when they said there are no side effects. When you makes vaccines like this

there is a strong tendency to create an autoimmune response against other

healthy organs such as the pancreas and the thyroid. Such vaccines will be

for the wealthy and those with good insurance. The side effects will be

ignored by the FDA as the side effects will be another " value added " for the

pharmaceutical and medical industries.

What will not be approved are vaccines which are simply constructed

using the synthetic equivalent of cancer " markers " . They have been around

for many years and they work. Virginia Livingston had one of the first

successful ones (anti hCG) and she was producing these in the 50's. The

cancer establishment treated her with incredible hostility. Dr. Georg

Springer had one 30 years ago that worked, and it kept working. He was on

the cover of Life magazine in 1992. One of the docs who worked with him

said that his big disappointment is life was that no one asked him about

making these vaccines. Right now there is a doc in Tulsa who made an AIDS

vaccine that worked on individual cases. The FDA stopped the formal study

right before it began. AIDS is a one billion dollar a year industry and

they are not about to let a small doc in a private practice destroy this

industry.

Cancer is not that difficult an ailment to successfully treat. No one

wants a cure but the patients and their families. Most docs are so

brainwashed by the drug companies and so much in fear of doing something

that would jeopardize their licenses that they choose not to see what should

be obvious. Your doctor does not want to kill you. He wants to help you

but he also justs wants to get along. Most clinicians have little time to

keep up with what is really going on in either research or in alternative

medicine. Medicine, medical products, medical research, medical services

are a one trillion dollar a year business for the US. It is America's

biggest business. The purpose of the FDA is to protect this business. This

is why US customs often tries to confiscate US made pharmaceuticals that are

sold cheaply in Mexico. Of course the FDA always present their actions as

being in the best interest of consumers.

You cannot have your cake and eat it too. There are many inexpensive

successful treatments for almost every form of cancer and most chronic

diseases, but the trade off would be that the bottom would drop out of the

US economy. The only way the government would allow a cancer cure is if

another gun-to-the-head chronic disease could take up the economic slack.

March 21, 2000

You all are soo naive.. You think they'll ever " officially " release a cure

for Aids or Cancer? Ruin a 10 trillion dollar a year business? Get real.

-

Re: vaccination

> writes:

> > There are more than one type of vaccine for cancer in the works. I have

> > been following the one on prostate cancer. More info on it at

> > http://psa-rising.com/medicalpike/vaccinehopkins.htm

>

> ,

> Yes, such vaccines will work, and they will be eventually approved.

In

> fact this is the one type of vaccine that will be approved. This is for

two

> reasons: it is autologous which means that it is individualized for each

> patient, and it is very much a supposed " value added " vaccine. The doc

was

> lying or stupid when he said that he was astounded that it raised every

> portion of the immune system. This is easy to do. They were also lying

> when they said there are no side effects. When you makes vaccines like

this

> there is a strong tendency to create an autoimmune response against other

> healthy organs such as the pancreas and the thyroid. Such vaccines will

be

> for the wealthy and those with good insurance. The side effects will be

> ignored by the FDA as the side effects will be another " value added " for

the

> pharmaceutical and medical industries.

> What will not be approved are vaccines which are simply constructed

> using the synthetic equivalent of cancer " markers " . They have been around

> for many years and they work. Virginia Livingston had one of the first

> successful ones (anti hCG) and she was producing these in the 50's. The

> cancer establishment treated her with incredible hostility. Dr. Georg

> Springer had one 30 years ago that worked, and it kept working. He was on

> the cover of Life magazine in 1992. One of the docs who worked with him

> said that his big disappointment is life was that no one asked him about

> making these vaccines. Right now there is a doc in Tulsa who made an AIDS

> vaccine that worked on individual cases. The FDA stopped the formal study

> right before it began. AIDS is a one billion dollar a year industry and

> they are not about to let a small doc in a private practice destroy this

> industry.

> Cancer is not that difficult an ailment to successfully treat. No

one

> wants a cure but the patients and their families. Most docs are so

> brainwashed by the drug companies and so much in fear of doing something

> that would jeopardize their licenses that they choose not to see what

should

> be obvious. Your doctor does not want to kill you. He wants to help you

> but he also justs wants to get along. Most clinicians have little time to

> keep up with what is really going on in either research or in alternative

> medicine. Medicine, medical products, medical research, medical services

> are a one trillion dollar a year business for the US. It is America's

> biggest business. The purpose of the FDA is to protect this business.

This

> is why US customs often tries to confiscate US made pharmaceuticals that

are

> sold cheaply in Mexico. Of course the FDA always present their actions as

> being in the best interest of consumers.

> You cannot have your cake and eat it too. There are many inexpensive

> successful treatments for almost every form of cancer and most chronic

> diseases, but the trade off would be that the bottom would drop out of the

> US economy. The only way the government would allow a cancer cure is if

> another gun-to-the-head chronic disease could take up the economic slack.

>

> ------------------------------------------------------------------------

> Visit http://cures for cancer.evangelist.net for cancer info or to unsubscribe

>

> ------------------------------------------------------------------------

> You have a voice mail message waiting for you at iHello.com:

> 1/2377/7/_/378/_/953564221/

>

> -- Create a poll/survey for your group!

> -- vote?listname=cures for cancer & m=1

>

March 21, 2000

Has any one seen the documentary on " Phage " It's a penicillin cure in

Germany that 20 times stronger than our penicillin. They say if you take this

cure for serveral months to years that some forms of cancer and aids go into

remissions! PSMassages@...

March 22, 2000

From I can see, I believe you are right.

Takes a lot of money to grease such a wonderfully organized business, and in

the US, business it really is.

No doubt there are some really great doctors, but then they only have the

tools given to them by the medical industry.

And we know the rest.

.

March 24, 2000

,

i agree with you totally!! cancer is BIG business, one they are not ready to

let got of! not in my lifetime anyway

virginia

April 19, 2000

THERE'S MORE TO VACCINATION THAN THE SHOT

by Sharon Kimmelman

Most people give more time and consideration to buying a car than to the

vaccines their children are given. Although volumes of books, medical

journals, U.S. Congressional Record testimonies, and international health

statistics spanning more than a hundred years question, challenge, discredit

and condemn the practice of vaccination as an unproven pseudo-scientific

theory, it remains in widespread use. The cry for a hearing of the facts is

rising once again, as the highly financed massive campaign is stepping up

its mandatory drugging; it is misleading the public with unsubstantiated

claims of safety, efficacy and necessity of vaccination. One need not be a

licensed " expert " to approach and comprehend this subject. An open mind, a

focused commitment to good health, and common sense will do.

As Ethly Hume explains in her classic book Bechamp or Pasteur(1923),

" The whole theory [of vaccination] is rooted in a belief in the immunity

conferred by a non-fatal attack of a disease. The idea arises from the habit

of regarding disease as an entity, a definite thing, instead of a disordered

condition due to complex causes; the germ theory of disease, in particular,

being the unconscious offspring of the ancient Eastern faith in specific

demons, each possessed of his own special weapon of malignity. Thus the

smallpox inoculation introduced into England from Turkey by Lady

Wortley Montague in the eighteenth century [1717] and its substitute of

cowpox inoculation were based on the ancient Indian rite of subjecting

people to an artificially induced attack of smallpox to propitiate

Sheetula-Mata, the goddess of that torment. "

The modern version substitutes " germs " for " demons. " An organized

destruction of natural health care escalated around 1850, when chemist Louis

Pasteur grossly misinterpreted the brilliant and revolutionary work of Prof.

Antoine Bechamp (chemist, physician, naturalist, and biologist) on the

essential role of " germs " in life processes. We literally have been

suffering under that delusion ever since.

Vaccines Are Not Harmless

Vaccines are immunosuppressive. They are produced from and contain cells

from sickened animals (calf lymph, monkey kidney, chick embryo, etc.), human

fetus tissue, viruses, heavy metals (mercury, aluminum), antibiotics and a

host of chemical propellants and solutions (formaldehyde, exc.). These

substances are acknowledged poisons. Injecting foreign matter into the blood

stream results in a wide range of diseases of the blood, brain, nerves and

skin (cancer, leukemia, MS, arthritis, immune deficiency) and death. Does

putting these toxic substances into a pure and healthy newborn and

continuing to administer booster shots throughout childhood (and now

adulthood) prevent disease? The immune system is simply doing its job when

it expels material from the body (rash, diarrhea, nausea, fever, etc.). What

are we really preventing when we quell the cough, break the fever, drug or

suppress the symptoms? Are we promoting perhaps the sharp rise in

degenerative disease (leukemia, arthritis, and cancer) among children three

to twelve years old?

A Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (July 1985) table shows a long list

of adverse reactions to DPT vaccination occurring within 48 hours. One in

two doses resulted in pain, one in three redness, two in five swelling.

Although some symptoms of vaccine damage appear as mild, local reactions

(up to 50%), this does nor deny internal system damage. High-pitched

screaming and inconsolable crying (encephalitis or brain inflammation)

occurs in one percent of doses. Since every child gets five doses, this

occurs to one in twenty babies. The DPT vaccination is given to 67,000 U.S.

children each

week. Does this relate to the steady rise in children with hyperactivity and

brain dysfunction? Some babies fall into a coma for the two-day observation

period. So, it, other damage and death which follow are not acknowledged as

" vaccine related, " noted on the child's medical record, nor reported to

the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), which compiles and reports statistics

like incidence of adverse reaction to vaccines.

The patient vaccine information insert for the DPT

(Diphtheria/Pertussis/Tetanus) triple vaccine reads: " Sudden infant death

syndrome has been reported following administration of DPT. The significance

is unclear...85% of SIDS cases occur in the period 1 through 6 months of

age, with the peak incidence at age 2 to 4 months. " The vaccine is given at

2, 4 and 6 months. It is clear that death in infants from vaccination is

being called many things including SIDS to obscure the actual cause(s).

We've spoken with hundreds of parents: Not one was ever shown this patient

insert by a doctor.

What happened to the threat of swine flu? As of 1978, more than 3000

lawsuits for deaths and paralysis resulting from the swine flu vaccine

injections were filed against the U.S. government totaling 51.5 billion in

compensation. The vaccine was withdrawn. How did the disease disappear?

Perhaps it never existed?

Vaccines Are Not Effective

" Immunity " is a grand medical delusion. Immune function, though, like all

other body processes, responds to and is the direct result of changing

beneficial and detrimental health practices and factors. There is no magic

pill or potion which will lock us into a state of " protection " in spite of

our actions. We are biologically accountable for our behavior. Technology

cannot trick nature without serious repercussions.

In 1950, the British Medical Society conducted exhaustive studies on the

relation of the incidence of diphtheria to the presence of antibodies. Their

conclusion: there is absolutely no relation between the two. More recently,

Dr. Wendell Belfield of San , California has stated that when primary

immune defense (leukocytes, interferon, etc.) is intact, antibodies are not

needed or produced. If vaccine toxicity destroys the first line of defense

of immune function to create antibodies, what do we gain in their pursuit?

Polio and paralysis are not synonymous. Dr. Ralph Scoby, president of the

Polio Research Institute, published (Archives of Pediatrics, 1950) a list of

170 diseases with 'polio-like symptoms and effects but with different

names. " Paralysis is the result of the diphtheria (and other) vaccination,

tonsillectomies and malnutrition (sugar ingestion). Yet the public was

rallied to accept the Salk anti-polio vaccine for a disease diagnosed

without viral confirmation, the medical standard. The result: paralysis

increased up to 600% and 17 states banned its use. Also, government agencies

knew that 350 million vaccine doses contained cancer-causing SV 40 virus,

yet refused to recall them to keep public confidence in vaccines high. If

the Salk vaccine wiped out polio, why did the Sabin oral vaccine replace

it? It was called " superior. " It is not. Taken by mouth, it is only less

lethal.

A State Communicable Disease Report for California (1971) shows that between

1955 and 1966 the reported number of polio cases dropped from 273 to 50

while viral meningitis rose from 5 to 256 cases. Another California report

lists " 0 " polio cases. An asterisk leads the reader to this statement:

" All such cases now reported as meningitis. " The media is playing Meningitis

(Hib), a " polio twin, " exactly as it played polio in the 50s.

Coincidentally, it has its own vaccine. What's the best way to wipe out a

diseased? Rename it!

Date

Viral or Aseptic Meningitis Polio

July 1955 50 273

July 1961 161 65

July 1963 151 31

Sept.1966 256 5

Vaccines Are Not Responsible for the Eradication of Disease

The Presidential Address of the British Association for the Advancement of

Science (1971) and Scientitic American (1973) presented records which

document that 90% of all " contagious " disease was eliminated as the result

of vastly improved sanitation, water systems, nutrition and living/working

conditions. Mass vaccination (and antibiotics) was introduced about a

century after that period of enormous decline (1850-1940) and yet is given

full credit for it. The U.S. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment's

report entitled " Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Medical Technologies "

states: " It has been estimated that only 10 to 20% of all procedures

currently used in medical practice have been shown to be efficacious by

controlled trial. " Of all drugs, devices and surgeries in daily use, 80-90%

are unproven. It adds that almost every surgery which was subjected to

controlled medical study has been abandoned. Vaccination (technically

surgery) remains unproven because authorities consider it unethical to not

do it. Vaccinating the entire population would destroy the evidence for

proving or disproving the theory. Dr. Leon Chaitow has reported that in

testimony given under oath, British army medical personnel were instructed

by their authorities to re-diagnose any disease which occurred (and was not

supposed to) as a result of the mandatory vaccinations. Statistics are

used to manipulate the public trust.

Vaccination Does Not Prevent Disease

World health records (England, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Philippines,

British India, etc.) document the devastating epidemics which followed mass

vaccination. The worst smallpox disaster occurred in the Philippines, after

10 years (1911-1920) of a compulsory U.S. program which administered 25

million vaccinations to its population of 10 million. The result: 170,000

cases and more than 75,000 deaths from smallpox. History past and present is

replete with similar tragedies. " Public education " by vaccine producers and

their supporters always omits self-incriminating facts.

The Times of London began three weeks of coverage with a front-page article

entitled " Smallpox Vaccine triggered AIDS viruses " (5/11/87). Newsworthy

enough, but the U.S. media reported nothing. In Africa, the greatest amount

of people with immune deficiency are located in areas where the WHO

vaccination programs are most intense. It is nor at all surprising that the

combination of poor living conditions and immune suppression via vaccination

has resulted in mass illness, call it what you will.

Good health is the result of managing multiple stress factors well:

nutrition, personal hygiene, environment, nurturing social relationships,

etc. As we build up and break down, the body builds up waste materials

(through lungs, skin pores, bowels, kidneys, tonsils, etc.). The less well

people are or the more waste products produced (from overtaxing the body's

systems), the more discomfort they may feel from these processes. When

needed, bacteria are " called " out of their natural balance to where waste

materials have accumulated, to decompose and recycle them and sanitize the

area. Wastes are there BEFORE the bacteria arrive. Bacteria are present in

great numbers in the second and third stages of disease. Bacteria do nor

cause disease. Dis-ease creates an environment favorable to the

proliferation of bacteria; it demands that they multiply. Dis-ease is not

something to be cured, it is cure.

It is " normal " for vaccinated children to live plagued with earaches and

sore throats. Even with lowered vitality their bodies seek the quickest

route out (skin, ears, tonsils) to expel toxic vaccine material and

resulting waste from the vaccines' damage. Antibiotics suppress symptoms and

drive the toxins deeper into the body, complicating elimination. Vaccines

lower immune response but the absence of medically acknowledged symptoms is

not a sign of better health. Conversely, lowered vitality, the norm in

vaccinated children, is never called a symtom. Children injured " by

dis-ease " are malnourished, force-fed, medicated, vaccinated and already

have degenerative disease. It is not the dis-ease

which is dangerous, it is the prior and continued mis-treatment which

weakens the child to such degree that a simple detoxification can threaten

his life. The view that elimination of wastes kills is what we call " The

Last Straw " Theory of Disease. It negates the essential factors which

influence health. With all the new iatrogenic (doctor-caused) diseases,

we've decided to name one, too: PFLS. Patient for Life Syndrome begins when

a healthy 8-week-old is given the first vaccination which sickens him and

initiates the cycle of vaccination, earache, antibiotic, vaccination, sore

throat, antibiotic, vaccination ...ad mortem. Each additional vaccine

further weakens the child, setting up the condition for a lifetime of

medical intervention. Is it any wonder so many of us are suffering with

allergies, asthma, skin, immune,

nerve (vision), and brain disorders?

Dr. Rosenow (Journal of Infectious Diseases, 1914) published his experiments

with bacteria in which he took strains from different disease sources and

put them in a uniform medium. Soon, there was no difference between them. He

concluded that bacteria are not different species but that they have the

capacity to transmute, to adapt to their environment. Fifty years earlier,

in " Notes on Nursing " , Florence Nightengale wrote this enlightened

statement: " There are no specific diseases. There are specific disease

conditions. "

The rubella vaccine is particularly crippling in adult women, causing

rheumatoid arthritis, chronic rubella, immune deficiency, etc. Yet the New

York state legislature just passed a law to require revaccination with

measles, mumps and rubella of all college students born after 1956. We are

now told that those vaccines which eliminated disease were " relatively

ineffective " ... Well, which is it?

Medical schools are funded by drug companies which are profit-making

businesses. Why do we expect to get unbiased information from their students

and promoters? Would you go to a butcher to find out about vegetarianism?

Even caring doctors, if they have not thought out this issue for themselves,

continue to mislead people to believe that medical theories are facts. The

medical mainstream influences with FEAR which can overshadow our logic,

intelligence and protective instinct. Vaccine proponents insinuate that

without them and their " miracles " we will perish. It takes emotional

support to withstand the indoctrination. But more parents are making an

informed choice, even with the tremendous pressure from authorities and

well-meaning friends and family. It is sad that most parents are bullied,

sweet-talked or intimidated into giving uninformed consent and getting it

done in a hurry.

Vaccination is non-emergency care. Responsible informed choice requires

taking time to find out the facts, acknowledging our feelings and getting

moral support through meeting unvaccinated children, adults and their

families. This can offer parents a fuller picture of humanity's natural

abilities to use dis-ease in attaining better health.

Editor's Note: Sharon Kimmelman is director of Vaccination Alternatives/PO

Box 346/New York, NY 10023. She is also editor of the Nioin newsletter of

the Natural Immunity Information Network. You can send email to her at

va-sk@....

June 26, 2000

In a message dated 06/26/2000 4:10:02 PM !!!First Boot!!!, dominickm@...

writes:

<< Does the Anthraz Vaccination have a scientific or medical name other than

" The Anthrax Vaccination " ? >>

Yes -- AVA -- Anthrax Vaccine Absorbed.

Major L. " Buzz " Rempfer

June 26, 2000

> Does the Anthraz Vaccination have a scientific or medical name other than

> " The Anthrax Vaccination " ?

Not that I'm aware of (although " illegal unsupervised non-consenting

clinical experimentation closely resembling Nazi war crimes " works for me).

" Vaccination " actually refers specifically to the use of intradermal

(between skin layers) live cowpox virus to induce immunity to smallpox,

since the viruses have similar envelope proteins. " Innoculation " likewise

refers to the use of live or attenuated live virus or other live organisms

in order to induce immunity. (The Sabin oral polio series is an example.)

" Immunization " generically refers to anything used to induce an immune

response to a specific set of antigens. (The Salk polio " vaccine " is an

example.) A molecule that triggers a specific immune response is termed an

" antigen. " Not all molecules can do this effectively by themselves, so

some immunizations mix antigens with substances that will nonspecifically

stimulate immune responses. These are called " adjuvants. "

In common usage, " vaccination " refers generically to any substances

administered in order to generate an immune response to a specific pathogen

(disease-causing organism). " Hay fever shots " are referred to as

" desensitization therapy. " The idea there is to induce one type of

antibody response to an allergen in order to keep the allergen from

interacting with another type of antibody that triggers an allergic

response.

I hope this obfuscates the subject satisfactorally! Medicine is an inexact

science made more inexact with its jargon, which is why it takes four years

of medical school and three years of residency before it's safe to release

us into society.

For the record, in polite company I refer to it as " The Anthrax

Immunization. " Other times, I refer to it (and those responsible for

inflicting it on us) by several less clinically appropriate, spleen-venting

epithets.

WE WILL WIN THIS!

Fisher, MD

LTC USAFR MC FS

(Inactive Reserve)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

Eastward I go only by force; but westward I go free. Thither no

business

leads me. It is hard for me to believe that I shall find fair

landscapes

or sufficient wildness and freedom behind the eastern horizon.

-- Henry Thoreau

(Walking)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----

June 26, 2000

Please also note as was posted before, the 1999 or 2000 PDR and the exclusive

on-line restricted website do not have knowledge of or a listing for either the

AVIP, BioPort, or the anthrax vaccine.

Jon

October 9, 2000

Hi, Patti,

From two of your recent posts:

> I found out that I was in a complete state of *ANERGY* (state

>of complete humoral immunity and no cellular immunity at all) before I

>started working on raising my CMI. Personally I've always had more trouble

>from the supposed " cure " than from

>the illness itself. *every* time I got the flu vaccine I got the flu. I

>got the pneumonia vaccine and got pneumonia twice after that (I've had

>pneumonia 7 times)

I suspect that the anergy is at the root of your problems with vaccines.

Without a cellular response to begin with, there will never be a humoral

(antibody) response later. Without the antibody response, you were a sitting

duck for even the weakened strains they use in vaccines.

I also suspect that you have developed some small amount of cellular

response in the past few years - i.e. in the time since you stopped getting

vaccines - and that has more to do with your not getting sinus infections

etc. than the lack of vaccinations. (Not that I am suggesting that you start

getting vaccinations again - just the opposite! - but if you do for some

reason get one you might get a more normal response to it.)

Jerry

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October 9, 2000

I also go to dr Bihari. What is the 1,3 glucan and CMI response. Are you in

NY..

Carol in LI

October 9, 2000

From: Jerry [mailto:jerrycam@...]

Hi, Patti,

From two of your recent posts:

> I found out that I was in a complete state of *ANERGY* (state

>of complete humoral immunity and no cellular immunity at all) before I

>started working on raising my CMI. Personally I've always had more trouble

>from the supposed " cure " than from

>the illness itself. *every* time I got the flu vaccine I got the flu. I

>got the pneumonia vaccine and got pneumonia twice after that (I've had

>pneumonia 7 times)

I suspect that the anergy is at the root of your problems with vaccines.

[Patti] Dr. Bihari says that most of his CFS patients are anergic, so I

would think that vaccines are a problem with most PWCs.

Without the antibody response, you were a sitting

duck for even the weakened strains they use in vaccines.

[Patti] Exactly. All the abstracts I found on medline say that people with

low CMI can actually *GET* the disease (on a chronic level - as opposed to

acute) from vaccines. There are *LOTS* of people walking around in an

anergic state. I don't understand why vaccines docs still pummel people

with getting vaccines. Shouldn't they advise people with low CMI NOT to get

vaccines - instead all we hear is that if you have a damaged immune system

you are the one who should get the vaccine first! Shouldn't the advise be

exactly the opposite?

I also suspect that you have developed some small amount of cellular

response in the past few years - i.e. in the time since you stopped getting

vaccines -

[Patti] I've developed some cellular response, but **NOT** from stopping

vaccines. I stopped vaccines for 5 years and was still completely anergic.

Only by following Konlee's advice was I able to raise my CMI. It was hard

work, just one thing did not do it and it took about 6 months. Naltrexone

was the first thing I tried that even raised it a tiny bit. Olive/lemon was

somewhat helpful. When I added huge doses of b 1,3 glucan (1500mg/day) to

the Naltrexone was the only way I was able to get adequate CMI response.

Not that I am suggesting that you start

getting vaccinations again - just the opposite! - but if you do for some

reason get one you might get a more normal response to it

[Patti] No more vaccines for me (or my cat)!! No more vaccines for most of

my friends and family also.

October 9, 2000

From: Cattttttt@... [mailto:Cattttttt@...]

I also go to dr Bihari. What is the 1,3 glucan and CMI response. Are you in

NY..

[Patti] No, I'm in Colorado. I had a telephone consult with Bihari. b 1,3

glucan is an OTC supplement that is supposed to specifically raise CMI

(cell-mediated immunity). Tons of info on cell-mediated immunity vs.

humorally-mediated immunity can be found at Mark Konlee's site (

www.keephope.net <http://www.keephope.net> ) and at the mycobactera site (

http://www.galway.iol.ie/~alank/CROHNS/welcome.htm).

<http://www.galway.iol.ie/~alank/CROHNS/welcome.htm)>

Patti

--

November 6, 2005

Ridiculous. Next you will advocate that we abandon the light bulb in

favour of candles. Public health officials recommend vaccination for a

reason: it is safe and effective.

November 6, 2005

Lee wrote: Ridiculous.

Next you will advocate that we abandon the light bulb in favour

of candles. Public health officials recommend vaccination for a reason:

it is safe and effective.

***

Yeah, and chemotherapy cures cancer.

I don’t advocate throwing the baby out with the bath water, but I

certainly wouldn’t make the blanket statement that all vaccines for every

type of virus are always safe and effective.

In the case of avian flu, they’re attempting to develop a vaccine

for a virus, the mutation of which hasn’t even occurred. Avian flu is not like the polio virus at

all (see link to Jonas Salk vaccine previously posted).

Anyone who’s waiting around for the Gubmint

to develop an allegedly “safe and effective” vaccine in lieu of

building his/her own immune system and learning ways to keep it healthy is

foolish, in my opinion.

November 6, 2005

> In the case of avian flu, they're attempting to develop a vaccine for a

> virus, the mutation of which hasn't even occurred. Avian flu is not

> like the polio virus at all (see link to Jonas Salk vaccine previously

> posted).

>

> Anyone who's waiting around for the Gubmint to develop an allegedly

> " safe and effective " vaccine in lieu of building his/her own immune

> system and learning ways to keep it healthy is foolish, in my opinion.

The avian flu virus as we know it today could mutate several times

before it comes contagious to humans and pigs. Scientists are already

watching the bird flu quite closely, let me assure you, and know that

whatever AI virus we get hit with, it's going to take at least two

years to get a vaccine out to the public. We can only hope the bird

flu today takes at least three years to become a pandemic, and that we

have upgraded our reverse genetics testing for a next-generation flu

vaccine.

November 6, 2005

cginca96 wrote: We can only hope the bird flu today takes at

least three years to become a pandemic, and that we have upgraded our reverse

genetics testing for a next-generation flu

vaccine.

***

At the rate it’s spreading among birds of the world, it’s

going to be at our (human) front door a lot sooner than that.

November 6, 2005

> At the rate it's spreading among birds of the world, it's going to be at

> our (human) front door a lot sooner than that.

>

This isn't the first time birds have died of the avian flu; the avian

flu isn't new. Birds die of so many diseases anyway, be it bacterial

infections, environmental toxins, other viral infections etc that " die

off " is common among birds.

The big fear is the current virus mutating to go after humans. It

hasn't yet, and it may not for a while. SARS was much more virulent

than the current bird flu.

November 6, 2005

cginca96

wrote: The big fear is the current

virus mutating to go after humans. It hasn't yet, and it may not for a

while. SARS was much more virulent than the current bird flu.

***

According to this

article, H5N1 is far more virulent.

How deadly is

avian flu to humans?

In its current form, very. So far, about 65 people have

died from the disease, resulting in a mortality rate near 70%. By comparison,

the SARS outbreak of 2003 infected 8,098 people around the globe and killed

774, for a 9.6% death rate.

The disease can kill within a week, destroying the lungs and other organs. If

it's anything like the Spanish-flu outbreak, its main victims will be otherwise

healthy adults. The World Health Organization has warned that an avian-flu

pandemic could kill as many 150 million people worldwide,

and the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention estimates that about 25%

of the U.S. population would

fall ill.

More at: http://tinyurl.com/d74vz

November 6, 2005

--How deadly is avian flu to humans?

> In its current form, very. So far, about 65 people have died from the

> disease, resulting in a mortality rate near 70%. By comparison, the SARS

> outbreak of 2003 infected 8,098 people around the globe and killed 774,

> for a 9.6% death rate.

>

> The disease can kill within a week, destroying the lungs and other

> organs. If it's anything like the Spanish-flu outbreak, its main victims

> will be otherwise healthy adults. The World Health Organization has

> warned that an avian-flu pandemic could kill as many 150 million people

> worldwide, and the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention estimates

> that about 25% of the U.S. population would fall ill.

Until the bird flu mutates to affect humans, we have more to worry

about the human flu, and god only knows what other " new " diseases show

up globally. (Remember the Nipah virus from 2003?)

November 6, 2005

Cginca96 wrote: Until the

bird flu mutates to affect humans, we have more to worry about the human flu,

and god only knows what other " new " diseases show up globally. (Remember

the Nipah virus from 2003?)

Dengue Fever is 100% fatal!

November 6, 2005

Until the bird flu mutates to affect humans, we have

> more to worry about the human flu, and god only knows what other " new "

> diseases show up globally. (Remember the Nipah virus from 2003?)

>

> Dengue Fever is 100% fatal!

>

And then there's the Plague, Hemorrhagic (sp?) Fever, Malaria and

variants of West Nile Fever.

A fear of a " new " smallpox virus is what also worries me (besides all

the others here). The Russians never did destroy all their smallpox

viri as per the unilateral agreement we had with them back in the

1970s. And if the Russians can't account for all their nukes, who can

trust them with several vials of smallpox that can easily be smuggled

out of the country in a ballpoint pen.

November 7, 2005

Dengue fever is not 100% fatal, maybe 0.1%

I myself suffered from dengue fever once.

The danger is it may be mistaken for any pandemic flu that may come.

Dengue fever is a disease caused by the dengue virus which can be

transmitted

to humans by the bite of an infected mosquito. The incubation period of

dengue

fever normally ranges from between 3 to 14 days.

Dengue haemorrhagic fever is a more severe form of dengue and can be

fatal if

unrecognised or not treated.

Death can occur in a small minority of persons especially if the

infection is

not recognized early or early treatment is not sought.

Coy wrote:

> Cginca96 wrote: Until the bird flu mutates to affect humans, we have

> more to worry about the human flu, and god only knows what other " new "

> diseases show up globally. (Remember the Nipah virus from 2003?)

>

> Dengue Fever is 100% fatal!

>

November 8, 2005

Avian Flu - What we need to know

The Avian Flu, what is it, what is known and what is being done about it?

Read more at Red Nova.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 28, 2005 at 10:39 AM in Vaccines | Permalink | Comments (3)

That's the spirit!

"In a two-week term the bird flu topic in Russia will be completely closed and forgotten", such a consoling declaration was made by Russia's Agriculture Minister Aleksey Gordeyev in a meeting with media in the Republic of Chuvashia Friday.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 28, 2005 at 10:30 AM in Russia | Permalink | Comments (2)

Bird flu fears and Trojan viruses

Virus writers, forever in search of opportunities to distribute their malicious code, are exploiting interest in the avian flu by circulating an e-mail with an attachment that contains information about the bird flu epidemic -- and a Trojan horse tucked inside.

[...] The Naiva.A Trojan horse masquerades as a Word document with subject lines such as "Outbreak in North America" and "What is avian influenza (bird flu)?"

The Trojan horse uses two Word macros to run and install a second threat on the computer. The first macro enables the Trojan horse to modify, create and delete files. The second macro installs Ranky.FY on computers. Ranky.FY allows hackers to gain remote control of infected computers.

Panda Software urges users to set their macro security level at medium to receive a warning when a macro is run, or on high to stop macros from running altogether.

The Naiva-A Trojan comes on the heels of numerous spam e-mail distributions that promote the sale of Tamiflu, the drug believed to be most effective at protecting humans for the H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus.

Here is the full article, and this is the virus description at Panda Software.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 28, 2005 at 10:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 27, 2005

Roche stops Tamiflu shipments to US

Tamiflu's maker, Roche Holding AG in Switzerland, said Thursday it was temporarily suspending U.S. shipment because of increased global demand. Company officials have previously said they are limiting supplies to pharmacies to thwart hoarding.

But there are signs that is happening.

"We've seen recently some very large purchases at the wholesale level, companies or large entities who are possibly hoarding Tamiflu right now," said Darien , spokeswoman at Roche's U.S. offices in Nutley, N.J.

Prescriptions for the drug last week were nearly quadruple what they were a year before, according to Verispan, a Pennsylvania-based company that monitors pharmacy sales. Some health departments and doctors' groups are urging consumers, doctors and even school districts not to stockpile the drug.

[...] "The priority is that there is enough Tamiflu for the people who need it at the start of the influenza season," said Roche spokesman Klauser. "At the moment, there is no influenza currently circulating."

Source. Roche stated it would continue to fill government orders.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 27, 2005 at 04:41 PM in North America, Tamiflu | Permalink | Comments (2)

Indonesia to recruit students for flu monitoring

Indonesia plans to recruit about 1,000 students from four universities to boost surveillance of avian influenza as a United Nations agency asked the government to show more urgency to control the virus in the nation.

[...] The government needs to create a chain of command to help in reporting the spread and measures to tackle the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, which has killed four people in the Southeast Asian nation, said Roeder, who is heading FAO's team to stem the spread of the disease in birds in Indonesia.

``I don't sense enough urgency about the situation,'' Roeder said. ``Heavy human population and all keeping poultry in the backyard situation has just provided wall-to-wall chickens for this virus to move around.''

[...] While Indonesia, the world's largest archipelago deploys 1,000 students for surveillance, neighboring Thailand will deploy 900,000 volunteers to perform house-to-house checks for signs of bird flu, local media reported Health Minister Suchai Charoenratanakul as saying Oct. 24.

Thailand will ``X-ray'' 21 provinces for signs of bird flu, Agriculture Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan said in a statement on Oct. 22. Thailand has declared a nationwide ban on the movement of poultry and ordered farmers to report cases of dead fowl, she said yesterday.

The Indonesian government and the FAO are appealing for help to fund compensation. Lack of adequate compensation discourages the reporting of outbreaks, the World Health Organization said in a report on Sept. 2. The virus has killed at least four people in Jakarta and surrounding areas.

From Bloomberg.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 27, 2005 at 10:55 AM in Indonesia | Permalink | Comments (0)

How did communities fare in the 1918 pandemic?

"Most communities were woefully unprepared for the health crisis they faced," said Higgins, who is focusing his research efforts on the ability of Pennsylvania cities to respond. "Those cities that passed muster, relatively speaking, had been building a strong medical infrastructure for decades, and had sound public health policies based more upon science than politics. I'm not sure that's the case today."

Wise words, read more here.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 27, 2005 at 09:41 AM in History | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 26, 2005

Girl dies in Hunan province

A 12-year-old girl died suffering flu-like symptoms in a village in central China where the mainland's third outbreak of bird flu in a week has been confirmed, the South China Morning Post said on Thursday.

He Yin and her 10-year-old brother fell ill about a week ago after eating a sick chicken that had died, the Post said, quoting their father, He Tieguang.

"We had dead chickens before and nobody has ever got sick because of that. So I thought it's okay," her father was quoted as saying.

So far there was no evidence linking her death to the outbreak of bird flu in the village in Hunan province and none of the adults in her family had shown any flu symptoms, the paper said. Doctors told her family she had died from fever.

The newspaper did not say when the girl died.

China has said the Hunan outbreak had been brought under control.

Farmers in the village of Wantang said many birds suddenly died about 10 days ago, the newspaper said.

Source.

Follow up: Chinese authorities now say the girl died of pneumonia, not bird flu.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 26, 2005 at 10:33 PM in China | Permalink | Comments (0)

Visitor to Thailand tests positive for H5N1

Preliminary tests conducted on a 43-year-old man who returned to the Indian Ocean French island of Reunion after a trip to Thailand indicated he may have the H5N1 bird flu virus, authorities said Wednesday. Two initial tests for the deadly H5N1 strain were conducted Monday on the man's nose and throat, after he developed a cough. "The first was doubtful, the second positive," Reunion authorities said in a statement. "There is thus a suspicion of flu of avian origin, although the symptoms are not very significant," the statement said. Bird flu is difficult to diagnose properly in preliminary tests, and false positives are not uncommon. The man was hospitalised on Reunion with a fever and strong headaches Saturday, three days after spending a week in Thailand. He was being kept under observation and being given antiviral treatments while awaiting further test results, expected before the end of the week, the statement said. It said 19 other people took the same trip to Thailand and have been questioned about their health. Among them, two have flu symptoms and were also being tested.

Source. Read Recombinomics' reaction here.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 26, 2005 at 12:44 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

H5N1 confirmed in Croatia

The European Union announced Wednesday the dangerous H5N1 strain of bird flu has been found in Croatia, the latest European nation to be hit by the virus.

"The Commission has been informed by the European Union reference laboratory in Weybridge that the virus isolated in wild birds in Croatia is indeed the H5N1 virus," said EU Commission spokesman Philip Tod.

Following the announcement of the suspected case over the weekend, the European Commission on Monday issued a precautionary ban on imports of live poultry, wild birds and feathers from that Balkan country. "That ban remains in force," said Tod.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 26, 2005 at 08:53 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

More bad news from China

China reported its third outbreak of bird flu in a week after 545 chickens and ducks died in the central province of Hunan, the World Organization for Animal Health reported on its Web site.

A Chinese Ministry of Agriculture report sent to the organization said the outbreak was found in Wantang village in Xiangtan county on Oct. 22. Local authorities immediately culled 2,487 other livestock.

The report was filed by Jia Youling, China's chief veterinarian. China's Ministry of Agriculture yesterday said an outbreak of avian influenza occurred last week in the eastern province of Anhui, near the country's biggest commercial city Shanghai.

``We'll likely see more cases this coming winter,'' Aphaluck Bhatiasevi, a World Health Organization spokeswoman, said in a phone interview in Beijing. ``It's not surprising. If there are more outbreaks, it means there is the likelihood of transmissions to humans.''

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 26, 2005 at 08:49 AM in China | Permalink | Comments (0)

Scientific American article

Read it here. It is a very good review of what we know and how prepared we are for a pandemic. No new information but still a good read.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 26, 2005 at 08:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

October 25, 2005

Bird flu found in Germany

Officials in Germany say dead birds found in the country have tested positive for bird flu.The finding comes as the EU confirmed moves to ban imports of captive live birds from other countries.

Further tests will now be carried on the infected birds in Germany see whether they were carrying the deadly H5N1 stream, which is lethal to humans.

However, officials said the geese in question had died from poisoning and not the flu.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 25, 2005 at 02:15 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

Reason Online on using the military in a flu pandemic

Read Kerry Howley's article here.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 25, 2005 at 02:01 PM in North America | Permalink | Comments (0)

Resources for flu preparedness

I sometimes get questions from readers who want to know what they can do to protect their families in the event of a flu epidemic. Various sites such as DiseaseProof (thanks to their editor Henry Abbott for the link) provide useful information on the topic. One of the best online sources that I am aware of is the fluwiki, where there are a number of very good articles/links you can browse.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 25, 2005 at 10:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (6)

China reports new outbreak

China has reported a new outbreak of bird flu in which 2,100 geese and chickens were infected, its second in less than a week, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said on Tuesday. The outbreak was detected on October 20 in Liangying village in the eastern province of Anhui, according to a Chinese Ministry of Agriculture report to the organisation. So far 550 birds have died and 44,736 have been culled.

It is the sixth outbreak in China this year and the second in less than a week, following the deaths of 2,600 birds and the culling of 91,000 at a farm in the northern Inner Mongolia region. Noureddin Mona, China representative of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, said he was informed of the latest outbreak by the agriculture ministry on Monday.

Source. Recombinomics links to the actual OIE report.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 25, 2005 at 08:55 AM in China | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fourth death confirmed as bid flu in Indonesia

Indonesia's Health Ministry said on Tuesday that tests had confirmed that a man who died in September was positive for bird flu. A total of seven people have been confirmed infected with H5N1.

The three survivors included two members of an extended family, but both had come into contact with dead chickens, Hariadi Wibisono, a senior official at the ministry, said when asked if human-to-human transmission might have occurred.

Health officials are becoming increasingly jittery as more cases of infection occur ahead of winter, when the virus seems to thrive.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 25, 2005 at 08:44 AM in Indonesia | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 24, 2005

EU considers live bird import ban

Here is the link from the Guardian. While you're on their site you may want to check out their interactive guide to avian flu.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 24, 2005 at 01:30 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saunas effective in fighting flu?

Saunas are a favourite haunt of athletes seeking out a good sweat, but officials in Finland are now recommending the steam room as a way of keeping the deadly bird flu out of the Nordic country.

The agriculture ministry has advised travellers to areas hard-hit by the disease to disinfect themselves in the high temperatures of the sauna.

"We issued a general recommendation for poultry producers to prevent the spread of the virus with the sauna," said ministry expert Sirpa Kiviruusu.

The government urged travellers returning from places in southeastern Asia, where the virus has claimed 61 lives, and Russia, where numerous poultry farms have been infected, to disinfect their clothing, shoes and luggage in a sauna.

[...] "This is very efficient way of destroying the virus, which cannot survive high temperatures. For clothes, you need 70 degrees Celsius for three hours," Kiviruusu said.

"You don't necessarily want to burn your clothes and therefore the sauna is a good way of killing the virus,? she added.

While the recommendation would be difficult to follow in many countries, in Finland, which boasts two million saunas for just over five million inhabitants, it's a piece of cake.

Thanks to Eli Senter for the link.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 24, 2005 at 11:26 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

New outbreak in Russia

The latest incident of bird flu in European Russia killed 12 hens at a private dacha, after which authorities culled 53 ducks and hens at the locality and imposed a quarantine.

The outbreak was in Tambov, 400 km (250 miles) southeast of Moscow last week, a senior regional animal health official said on Monday.

"Laboratory tests have confirmed the presence of the H5N1 strain (of bird flu) ... in some dead fowl tissue samples," the official told Reuters.

From Reuters. The same article has the latest story from Malta:

In Malta, authorities sealed a ship at Malta Freeport and put its crew in quarantine after dead birds were seen aboard.

State television said the ship was coming from Taiwan, which last week found the H5N1 virus in a container of birds smuggled from China, its first case for two years.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 24, 2005 at 09:55 AM in Russia, Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 23, 2005

Taiwan to ignore Tamiflu patent

Taiwan says it is making its own version of the best-selling antiviral drug Tamiflu, whether its original manufacturers agree or not.

The authorities say they still hope talks with the Swiss-based pharmaceutical giant Roche will bear fruit, but that the priority is to protect the public from the worst effects of bird flu.

Taiwanese health officials say they asked a local pharmaceutical company to produce a generic version of the antiviral bird flu drug.

Production of the drug on a small scale has already begun.

Officials say the company will be able to manufacture 200,000 doses of the drug within the next two months.

The drug will not be marketed commercially, but will be held by the Government in the event of any major outbreak of bird flu.

The move comes after scientists at Taiwan's National Health Research Institute successfully managed to produce small quantities of the drug in a laboratory.

From ABC. Also read Tyler's post on patent rights.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 23, 2005 at 11:04 AM in Tamiflu | Permalink | Comments (1)

Sweden finds bird flu in duck

Sweden is the latest European country to be struck by bird flu. A duck found dead east of Stockholm has tested positive for the disease. It is too early to say whether it had the lethal H5N1 strain of the virus.

Source.

Addendum: Sweden's Board of Agriculture stated that the duck was suffereing from "a mild type of the H5 avian influenza", not H5N1. Link.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 23, 2005 at 10:55 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (1)

Four more human cases suspected in Thailand

Samarn Haoherm, a 48-year-old neighbour of Bang-orn Benphad - who died of bird flu on Wednesday - was taken to Than Chao Khun Paiboon Hospital in Phanom Thuan. The three other suspected cases were reported by Paholphonyuhasaena Hospital in Kanchanaburi, with the youngest amongst them a three-year-old girl. Doctors said they were all under medical supervision and close observation.

From Red Nova, in an article that is critical of the government's handling of the situation.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 23, 2005 at 10:51 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

How far to a human H5N1?

Read Effect Measure on the genetic changes needed.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 23, 2005 at 10:42 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 22, 2005

News roundup

Britain discovered bird flu in a parrot imported from Suriname. The parrot died in quarantine. It is not yet known which strain of bird flu it was infected with, but so far H5N1 was not found in South America. H9 was detected in Colombia earlier this month.

In Eastern Europe the virus continues to spread. Croatia is the latest country to report a possible H5N1 infection. The government was preparing to cull both domestic and wild birds in the infected area.

There also seems to be a new outbreak in Southern Russia, affecting the Chelyabinsk region.

In Thailand health officials are saying there was no human to human transmission in the case of a father and son infected with H5N1. The father was a poultry worker who died from the flu after killing and eating a sick chicken. The son likely caught the flu from the chicken as well. The son survived the flu and is now recovering.

Finally, if you're just starting to read up on bird flu, you may be interested in this Week Magazine brief summary of what we know about the H5N1 virus. Thanks to Craig Sender for that link.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 22, 2005 at 10:19 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 21, 2005

A "concerned intensivist" on hospital care during a pandemic

Berkeley sends me an article on the difficulties hospitals would have today coping with an outbreak of bird flu. The story covers Australian hospitals in Melbourne, but it is easy to see how things would not be much better in other places. The article is written by a â€œconcerned intensivistâ€ who concludes:

We are told that when the next pandemic occurs (and one will occur, if not with H5N1, then with another strain) that with the combined miracles of improved medical care, modern pharmaceuticals and the discipline of intensive care medicine will result in the carnage being much less. I'm afraid being at the coal face of intensive care medicine I can't share their optimism.

The articleâ€™s main concern is that we lack the spare capacity needed to deal with a surge in demand for medical care. Here is another article on what would happen if bird flu hit Australia today (complete with a flu-themed 1918 nursery rhyme). If youâ€™re interested in a more speculative piece you may want to read this fictitious blog account written by back in May.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 21, 2005 at 10:26 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (1)

October 20, 2005

Pandemic planning for businesses

The Ministry of Economic Development in New Zealand has two interesting papers on what businesses can do to prepare for a pandemic. The first paper covers companies operating in critical infrastructure sectors (energy, water, communications, transport and waste management), and the other deals with regular businesses. Thanks to for the pointer.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 20, 2005 at 03:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Man dies from bird flu in Thailand

Thailand reported its first human fatality from bird flu in a year as the world mobilised to battle a virulent strain of the virus still multiplying in Asia as it advances into Europe and menaces Africa. A 48-year-old Thai farmer, who slaughtered and then ate a sick chicken, was the country's 13th victim, and his death contributed to fears that the virus is defying human efforts to contain its spread.

Source. See Effect Measure for a more comprehensive list of the latest H5N1 outbreaks worldwide.

The Channel NewsAsia article quoted above also contains an update on the progress made by various companies/countries towards an H5N1 vaccine:

Belgian pharmaceutical company Solvay said it aimed to produce its first trial batches of vaccines to combat H5N1 in the second quarter of 2006. French drug-maker Sanofi-Aventis said it was conducting clinical trials for a vaccine. Dutch-Swedish group Akzo Nobel said it aimed to start tests in 2006. Hungary said a prototype H5N1 vaccine had produced antibodies in participants of a human trial.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 20, 2005 at 10:26 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 19, 2005

New prediction market in avian flu

Go to www.tradesports.com, click under Current Events, maybe this link works. The contract is for whether bird flu is found in the U.S.; more useful would be a contract on whether human-to-human transmission becomes widespread and causes many deaths. Bird flu in U.S. birds, while terrible for Perdue Chicken, is not what most people care about. It is in this country, and Western Europe, that bird flu is least likely to mutate into a form deadly for humans. Right now the market is saying 15 to 18 percent that bird flu will be confirmed in the U.S. before year's end.

Thanks to for the pointer.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 19, 2005 at 01:46 PM in North America | Permalink | Comments (1)

Bad news from China and Russia

China reported a fresh outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu on Wednesday amid new reports of the avian illness in Russia, Romania and Macedonia.

China's state news agency, Xinhua, reported Wednesday that 2,600 birds died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu in the country's northern region.

Xinhua said the birds were discovered in a breeding facility near the village of Hohhot, the capital of Inner Mongolia. The news agency didn't provide any details other than to say that the "epidemic is under control."

[...] In neighbouring Russia, agricultural officials are waiting for final confirmation of the H5N1 strain in wild ducks near Moscow. Hundreds of birds died suddenly in the country's Tula region, about 200 kilometres south of the capital.

If the tests are positive, it would be the first time the virus has shown up west of the Ural Mountains, in what is European Russia. Authorities have already killed 60,000 birds to stop the spread of the disease.

Story.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 19, 2005 at 12:59 PM in China, Russia, Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

Don't put your faith in a central Tamiflu stockpile.

Countries around the world are stockpiling Tamiflu, in anticipation of a possible avian flu pandemic. This is better than doing nothing, but Tamiflu is unlikely to protect most of us, should a pandemic arrive. Here are a few reasons why:

1. Tamiflu must be taken within the first two days of symptoms. Your chance of getting some Tamiflu that quickly, in a pandemic, will not be great (of course you could buy some on your own).

2. Tamiflu, if taken preventively, can prevent you from getting sick in the first place. But you would need two tablets each day. Only essential medical personnel, and select politicians, are likely to receive such treatments.

3. You show up at the emergency room with avian flu, and then they have to decide where you stand on the priority list. Will the hospital fear a lawsuit? How long will this take? Will it require federal or regulatory clearance?

4. Given the crush of the infected, will you be afraid to show up at the emergency room in the first place? Maybe you just have the common cold. See point #1.

5. Many Tamiflu supplies will be exhausted on false alarms, such as colds and other flus.

6. A Tamiflu stockpile is only good for a few years. If avian flu does not come soon, do you expect the stockpile to be replenished? Or would avian flu become the new "swine flu", never to be uttered by politicians again? The avian flu threat will likely be with us for at least ten years, in the form of a bird "flu reservoir" for possible mutation.

7. There is some chance that the virus will develop Tamiflu immunity over time, especially if Tamiflu is applied indiscriminately at the early stages of a pandemic.

8. Let's say the virus arrives first in California. Will Tamiflu supplies all be sent that way at first? Will they ever later be shipped back to Kansas? How much of the stockpile -- an inevitable political football -- will be available at any point in time?

Did I mention that the U.S. won't be getting any more new Tamiflu for at least two years? Right now we have only about 4.3 million courses. Yes we should buy more Tamiflu, but we must consider what else we should do as well.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 19, 2005 at 07:39 AM in Tamiflu | Permalink | Comments (4)

October 18, 2005

Jon on bird flu

Yes, the comedian; here is a link to the video.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 18, 2005 at 06:24 PM in North America | Permalink | Comments (0)

AEI discussion of vaccines

Calfee offers some policy recommendations. Here is one excerpt:

Congress should pass legislation insulating flu vaccine manufacturers from liability suits as long as they meet Food and Drug Administration standards of testing and manufacturing. The vaccine industry and the FDA need to phase out a decades-old vaccine manufacturing technology in which individual doses are grown in millions of chicken eggs and replace it with one based on cell culture similar to what is used for many other drugs. Other useful changes would permit alternatives to the traditional injections and the addition of adjuvants--active ingredients that facilitate the action of the vaccine itself. These measures could improve potency and reduce the gap between vaccine approval and mass distribution from the current six months or so to one or two months.

Comments, of course, are welcome.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 18, 2005 at 06:13 PM in Vaccines | Permalink | Comments (0)

Using chickens as flu detectors

The Romanian Ministry of Agriculture declared the two areas currently under quarantine will be repopulated with "test" chickens seven days after the cleanup efforts are finished. If the chickens live, the quarantine will be lifted.

The same article interviews Ioan Popa, the director of a chicken farm from Alba Iulia in Transilvania, who had an interesting solution for keeping wild birds away from his farm. Popa brought a pair of hawks to his farm and found them to be very effective. The idea has been used by airports for some time.

Link in Romanian.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 18, 2005 at 10:56 AM in Poultry | Permalink | Comments (0)

eBay stops web sale of Tamiflu

A spokeswoman for eBay said the auction, for Roche Holding's flu medicine, had been stopped because the sale of prescription drugs was not allowed under the e-commerce company's rules.

Europe has seen a surge in demand for Tamiflu on the Internet, following the confirmation of cases of avian flu in Turkey and Romania, and a suspected case in Greece.

Bids for a single course of treatment, comprised of 10 capsules, had reached 104 pounds ($174.61) by midday Thursday before the auction was canceled. Some 28 bids were received for the drug, which was advertised as located in Birmingham, England.

Swiss drug maker Roche urged consumers earlier this month not to buy Tamiflu over the Internet to avoid the risk of purchasing potentially counterfeit pills but instead to get advice from their doctor and pick the drug up from a reputable pharmacy.

Private prescriptions for Tamiflu cost the equivalent of 25 to 30 pounds ($44 to $53) in Europe, but national governments have purchased stockpiles of the medicine for considerably less.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 18, 2005 at 10:16 AM in Tamiflu | Permalink | Comments (1)

Indian company seeks Tamiflu license

Cipla Ltd., which said last week that it has developed a generic copy of the flu drug, plans to approach Roche Holding AG for a license shortly, Joint Managing Director Amar Lulla said.

Roche has been under growing pressure from governments and U.N. Secretary General Kofi n to license generic versions of Tamiflu, the only available drug that is effective in treating people infected with bird flu. The drug is already in short supply.

Earlier Tuesday, Roche said it plans to build a new plant in the United States to produce more Tamiflu, and senior Roche executive told the Dow Newswires separately that the company would also consider any request for a license to make the generic version.

"We would welcome any company that made such a request to produce Tamiflu under license," Reddy, who leads the company's influenza task force, told Dow .

Lulla said any possible agreement with Roche would likely set limits to where the generic version could be sold, implying the Indian company could be allowed to sell in mostly developing nations in Asia and Africa.

Source. This development could be very important for the Tamiflu property rights debate. Here's a related article from CNN.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 18, 2005 at 10:03 AM in Tamiflu | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 17, 2005

Greek island may have H5N1

Greece was on Monday carrying out further tests on a turkey detected with bird flu on an Aegean island to establish if it was infected with the deadly strain of the virus already found in Turkey and Romania.

[...] The turkey came from a small private poultry farm of about 20 turkeys on the tiny eastern Aegean island of Inousses off Chios, the Greek Ministry of Agriculture said.

â€œThe Center for Veterinary Institutes has informed us that one of nine poultry samples has tested positive to bird flu (H5) antibodies,â€ it said in a statement, adding that it was running further tests to "to verify the correctness of the analysis."

Source. Reuters has a similar report.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 17, 2005 at 09:26 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

Bird flu in Macedonia?

More than 1,000 poultry were found dead in Macedonia at the weekend, but experts played down fears that the deadly strain of bird flu had spread from nearby Turkey and Romania.

The chickens and turkeys were discovered in the villages of Germijan and Mogila, some 200 kilometres (120 miles) southwest of Skopje, the capital of the former Yugoslav republic, the Dnevnik newspaper reported.

In addition, many pigeons were found dead in Tetovo, west of Skopje, the daily said without elaborating.

Source. Thanks to le Emery for the link.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 17, 2005 at 01:04 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 16, 2005

Tamiflu and property rights

Make sure to read Tyler's excellent post on the topic.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 16, 2005 at 09:50 PM in Tamiflu | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 15, 2005

What is up with Tamiflu immunity?

Earlier we had reported possible H5N1 strains resistant to Tamiflu. It turns out this is based on just one case; here is a report. The authors suggest two bottom lines. First:

The mutation that made the girlâ€™s H5N1 virus resistant also occurs in ordinary flu viruses among Japanese children who are treated with Tamiflu. And ordinary flu with that mutation rarely if ever goes on to cause a new infection in another person, says Frederick Hayden of the University of Virginia, US, an expert in antiviral drugs. â€œBecoming resistant to this class of drugs seems to impose a fitness penalty on the virusâ€...

Second:

The observation may, however, cast doubt on plans by some governments to put â€œessentialâ€ workers on Tamiflu prophylaxis if a pandemic breaks out. Large numbers of people on low doses of the drug for a long time could cause new kinds of resistant strains to emerge, which might not be so weak.

Effect Measure has more.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 15, 2005 at 07:17 AM in Tamiflu | Permalink | Comments (5)

October 14, 2005

The latest from Europe

In Romania the virus is spreading:

"A type H5 virus, very probably identical to that detected at Ceamurlia de Jos, has been identified in two samples from Maliuc," a village in the Danube delta in the southeast of the country, about 60 kilometres (35 miles) from the site of the first outbreak, the ministry said in a statement.

Meanwhile, after two days of emergency talks the EU has approved the new measures for fighting bird flu:

Among the precautionary measures adopted or reinforced include tighter monitoring and controls of wild migratory birds, and checks at borders to ensure no banned poultry products from Romania or Turkey enter the EU.

[...] They also called on poultry farmers to increase checks of their birds health, ensuring they report quickly to any deaths or illnesses at their farms.

[...] In Paris, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said all should be done to ensure the virus does not mutate, and added the public must be reassured as well.

I can't help but feel like the authorities are in denial and are focused on the wrong "measures". The avian flu virus cannot be contained at this stage: it will be with us for a long time. Import bans and border checks are symbolic, more than anything. And despite the statements of some politicians, we can do very little "to ensure the virus does not mutate". These are the facts. What is important is that we accept this reality and deal with it in a responsible way, by being as ready as we can for the likely emergency.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 14, 2005 at 04:47 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (2)

Worrisome news from Vietnam

The feared avian influenza virus is showing signs it can evade the drug considered the first line of defense against bird flu, researchers said on Friday.

They found so-called resistant strains in a Vietnamese girl who recovered from a bird flu infection after being treated with Tamiflu. They also found evidence she was directly infected by her brother and not by chickens, a rare case of human-to-human transmission of the virus.

Here is the very troublesome Reuters article.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 14, 2005 at 04:25 PM in Status and Severity, Vietnam | Permalink | Comments (0)

Vaccine update

"By not determining the lowest dose that is acceptably immunogenic, the vaccine companies have shown they do not understand the unforgiving arithmetic of pandemic vaccine supply," Fedson told New Scientist. "That means millions will not receive vaccine, and thousands will die. Economists call this an opportunity cost. I call it a tragedy."

Here is the full story, from The New Scientist.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 14, 2005 at 03:03 PM in Vaccines | Permalink | Comments (1)

Roche to step up production of Tamiflu

Amid fears of a global flu pandemic, production is being stepped up to stockpile the only drug that may be able to treat the illness, but the 12 months it takes to make a dose means governments may have to wait for new orders, drugmaker Roche Holding AG said.

[...] U.N. Secretary-General Kofi n said last week that usual patent rules may have to be suspended if there is an outbreak of the disease so that other companies could jump in and make the medicine.

Switzerland-based Roche, the sole manufacturer, said there was no question of relinquishing the patent, which is protected until 2016. Although the drug's effectiveness against bird flu has yet to be proven, U.N. health officials say people who have been in contact with the disease and then taken Tamiflu within 48 hours have not developed symptoms.

[...] Roche said there are 10 complex steps to make Tamiflu and it would be unrealistic to outsource all the work, because outside companies would need up to three years to set up production as well as gain the capacity and know-how.

"We are not planning on getting another company to make Tamiflu," said Klauser, dismissing reports the company was ready to discuss allowing other companies to produce the drug.

He said the company already outsources three of its 10 production steps.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 14, 2005 at 10:18 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (2)

Nine people tested for bird flu in Turkey

A Turkish hospital has kept nine people under observation and tested them for possible bird flu after the death of 40 of their pigeons in 15 days, state-run Anatolian news agency said on Friday.European Union experts held crisis talks on the spread of bird flu on Friday, a day after health officials confirmed the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus in Turkey."Acting on a tip-off, we took the family which owned the pigeons and the neighbours who made the tip-off, in all nine people, to the hospital," the agency quoted local health official Osman Ozturk as saying.He said blood tests had been taken from the two families in the western town of Turgutlu and some of the dead birds had been sent away for testing as well."There is no sign of illness in the nine people, but we have taken all the people who have been in contact with the birds under observation. The houses of the two families have also been disinfected," he said.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 14, 2005 at 09:42 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

CNN coverage

We are pleased to have this blog shown on CNN, here is the somewhat murky image:

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 14, 2005 at 09:23 AM in North America | Permalink | Comments (1)

EU to speed up vaccine approval

The commission is working with the European Medicines Agency ``to speed up the process of approving a vaccine in case of a pandemic from the moment the virus is identified to until a vaccine is produced,'' which might take six to eight months, Kyprianou said. ``We want to try to limit that to make it in weeks.''

The EMEA and the drug industry are working to come up with a program to speed the approval process of vaccines in a pandemic emergency, he said.

The agency will review the bulk of an application prior to the actual outbreak of a pandemic, the London-based regulator said in a press release late yesterday. Once the specific strain of the influenza virus is known, a health panel can approve a variation to the application within a few days, it said.

From Bloomberg.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 14, 2005 at 07:56 AM in Vaccines | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 13, 2005

Bird flu conference in London

Dr. Rob Lambkin sends me the link to a conference discussing the role of antivirals in a flu pandemic. The event will be held in January at St. Bartholomew's Hospital in London and is sponsored by Roche, the makers of Tamiflu.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 13, 2005 at 03:32 PM in Research | Permalink | Comments (0)

H5N1 confirmed in Turkey, Romania

"The virus found in Turkey is avian flu H5N1 high pathogenic virus," the EC's Health and Consumer Protection chief Markos Kyprianou told a news conference in Brussels on Thursday.

Kyprianou said the EU executive did not yet know whether the cases of avian flu discovered in Romania were of the same virulent strain but they were assuming they were, pending final tests.

He recommended "the increase of vaccination among the risk population for the seasonal flu in any event, not at least because this is part of our preparedness plan to deal with the potential or possible pandemic."

Earlier Thursday the EU banned the import of live birds, poultry meat and feathers from Romania after officials there confirmed positive tests.

[...] Romania's chief veterinarian Ion Agafitei told Reuters that scientists detected the H5N1 virus in samples taken from three ducks found in the Danube delta.

"We eventually isolated the avian flu virus in the samples taken from the three ducks," Agafitei told Reuters by telephone.

"We have so far culled 3,000 poultry and we will continue to do so at a rapid pace," said Mihai Carciumaru, the mayor of Ceamurlia de Jos in the Danube delta, where the three infected ducks were found last week.

"Today, we need to cull 15,000 more birds to contain the disease," he told Reuters. The mayor also said authorities had sealed off the village.

From CNN.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 13, 2005 at 08:13 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (2)

October 12, 2005

Washington Times article on flu preparedness

Nick Schulz has a good article in today's paper reviewing much of the information we have about the government's plans in the event of a pandemic. Among other things, the article mentions the efforts of some bloggers, quoting some of Tyler's suggestions.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 12, 2005 at 05:09 PM in North America | Permalink | Comments (0)

Send in the cavalry

That is the name of a Slate.com article on the US President's prerogatives in a pandemic. Via H5N1.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 12, 2005 at 11:16 AM in North America | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tests from Romania negative

The European Union has said it has so far found no evidence of the presence of bird flu in Romania.

A spokesman said tests on suspected cases had come back negative, and experts were hopeful that further examination would confirm this.

Romania culled thousands of birds amid fears of an outbreak of the H5N1 virus, deadly to humans, after three ducks were found dead in a remote village.

From BBC, via. Tests from Turkey are also expected later this week.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 12, 2005 at 11:10 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (1)

October 11, 2005

Nabarro on vaccine production

The Reuters interview reminds us of the main problems with bird flu vaccines: production capacity and questionable effectiveness in dealing with a mutated virus:

"We do not know what the genetic makeup of the eventual mutant virus will be, therefore we cannot be sure that existing vaccines that have been stored up will be effective," he said.

"The general view in a pandemic situation is that we need to have vaccines much more quickly than six months because of the speed at which the pandemic can take hold and start to affect the functioning of society and cause suffering."

[...] Asked by reporters if vaccine stockpiling was futile, Nabarro said: "I would not identify any preparatory activity being taken by governments at the moment as wasteful.

"What we're talking about here is very difficult choices being made by governments in a situation of uncertainty."

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 11, 2005 at 10:13 AM in Vaccines | Permalink | Comments (5)

Fifth human case confirmed in Indonesia

The World Health Organization confirmed Indonesia's fifth human case of avian influenza after a 21-year-old man in Lampung province in Sumatra tested positive for the virus.

``Initial investigation has revealed that the man had direct exposure to diseased and dying chickens in his household shortly before the onset of illness,'' the United Nations agency said on its Web site. Three of the five confirmed cases in Indonesia were fatal, WHO said.

Avian flu cases may increase in Indonesia as the wet season, which typically begins in November and runs until April, begins, WHO said on Oct. 3. Indonesia faces an epidemic unless it can contain an outbreak that has infected at least 10 people in three provinces, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said on Sept. 22.

There are 98 people across the nation currently under observation for bird flu, I Nyoman Kandun, director general of disease control and environmental sanitation at the Health Ministry, said in a phone interview today. The cases were spread over nine of Indonesia's 33 provinces, he said.

Story from Bloomberg.com, here is the WHO press release. ProMedMail adds that a 4 year old boy is also thought to have the virus.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 11, 2005 at 12:54 AM in Indonesia | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 10, 2005

Romania, Turkey update

In the evening of Friday 7 October, the Commission services were informed of a suspicion of Avian Influenza (AI) in Romania. The suspicion has arisen in a backyard flock with 53 chickens/hens and 47 ducks located in the municipality of Ceamurlia-de-Jos in the Danube Delta region, at a distance of ~ 100 Km from the border with Bulgaria). In this flock 40 ducks and 1 chicken have died, while the other poultry (mainly chickens/hens) had no clinical signs of disease. All other poultry in the farm have already been killed and carcasses destroyed. Samples have been taken from 3 ducks and 2 chickens.

The ducks blood samples have resulted positive for antibodies against AI virus, while the 2 chicken samples were negative. These findings alone do not lead to the confirmation of Avian Influenza virus infection (including Highly Pathogenic AI virus H5N1, that is the virus strain circulating in Asia), in particular because the finding of antibodies in ducks cannot be considered as a rare event and could be due to prior infection with Low Pathogenic AI, while ducks death could be due to diseases other than AI.

Samples from the dead ducks are also being tested for the detection of Avian Influenza virus (virus isolation test on embryonated eggs - Highly Pathogenic AI should kill the chicken embryos in 3-4 days) at the Romanian laboratory. After 4 days, as at Sunday 9 October, this test has not given any positive result so far, however, a â€œsecond passageâ€ in eggs is now being performed.

In relation to these findings, the Romanian authorities have undertaken strong actions, including the stamping-out of all poultry in the farm in which the ducks died and in several other backyard/family type farms in the surrounding, rigorous controls at the border of the â€œrestricted zoneâ€ established around the suspected farm, disinfection, etc. Samples from some poultry and dead wild swans have been taken on Saturday in the village concerned and its surroundings and have been sent to the laboratory in Bucharest for testing.

That information is from the latest European Union press release. The same statement contains an update on the Turkish situation:

On Sunday 9 October the European Commissionâ€™s services have been informed of an outbreak of AI in an open-air turkey farm with 1800 turkeys, 1700 of which died after that the first clinical signs were detected on 1 October. All remaining birds in the farm have been killed and all carcasses destroyed. Disinfection has been applied. The origin of the outbreak is unknown. The farm is located in the Region of Balikesir, in the north-western part of Anatolia.

Laboratory tests (HI, ELISA and virus isolation on embryonated eggs) have resulted positive for the avian influenza virus but the exact strain is not yet known, nor is it known if the strain is of high or low pathogenic avian influenza.

The European Commissionâ€™s services and the Community Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza have immediately offered assistance and laboratory support to the Turkish veterinary authorities. The Turkish will probably sent appropriate samples to the CRL, Weybridge, probably today 10 October. Final virus characterisation will be available within 24/48 hours from arrival of samples in the laboratory.

In view of the positive results of the first laboratory tests for the isolation of avian influenza virus, the European Commission will today adopt a decision by emergency procedure to ban all imports of live birds and feathers from Turkey. Imports from Turkey of all other poultry products, with the exception of heat treated meat which kills the AI virus, are already banned.

More coverage in the Washington Post or Reuters. Recombinomics reports a possible human infection in Turkey, so far not confirmed in other sources.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 10, 2005 at 10:04 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (2)

October 08, 2005

The latest from Romania

Local authorities said Saturday they had enforced quarantine measures across the southeastern Tulcea region and that the village of Ceamurlia de Jos, where the three infected ducks had been found, had been sealed off.

The ducks are thought to have been infected by migrating birds bringing the virus from Russia.

The area contains a large nature reserve, and is a key stopping point for migratory birds.

Some 500 chickens suspected of having contacted the virus were destroyed Saturday, and authorities asked local farmers to report any birds showing signs of the disease, promising compensation for any losses.

More than 700 residents of the delta were given general anti-flu vaccines on Saturday and some 3,000 people will have received the jabs by Sunday, he said.

"Romania does not have a specific vaccine for avian flu. However this anti-flu vaccine is important as it helps to enhance immunity," health ministry spokeswoman Oana Grigore told AFP.

"The risk of a disaster is remote if the population is vaccinated against influenza," Nicolaescu told news media.

A free of charge nationwide flu vaccination campaign began a week ago and some 500,000 doses have been stockpiled, according to the ministry.

"In all we need nearly 1.5 million doses. So we will be making an international appeal for donations in the next few days," Nicolaescu said, adding that Romania also planned to stock up on anti-viral drug Tamiflu.

Source. I find some of the statements in the article strange. I am particularly skeptical about the claim that regular flu vaccines would be effective at against bird flu. I also do not understand why 1.5 million doses are considered enough, for a population of 23 million (Bucharest alone has about 2 million people).

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 08, 2005 at 09:54 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (4)

Turkey reports bird flu outbreak

Bird flu has been discovered in Turkey for the first time since the recent outbreak of the disease in Asia, according to Turkey's Farm Minister Mehdi Eker.

On CNN Turk, the minister said that 2,000 turkeys had died of the disease on a farm in Balikesir province near the Aegean Sea in western Turkey.

He said: "Yesterday, unfortunately, we experienced a case of bird flu. But everything is under control, every precautionary measure has been taken to prevent it spreading."

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 08, 2005 at 09:44 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

NY Times on Bush's avian flu plan

The tone is critical, mostly because responsibilities are not clearly assigned in the a pandemic situation:

"The real shortcoming of the plan is that it doesn't say who's in charge," said a top health official who provided the plan to The Times. "We don't want to have a FEMA-like response, where it's not clear who's running what."

We also get some insight as to the mechanism of vaccine distribution:

A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage distribution for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, National Guard and other national security groups were left out.

Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, the police, firefighters and government leaders are next.

Here is the link.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 08, 2005 at 10:49 AM in North America | Permalink | Comments (8)

Bird flu detected in Romania

Romania reported its first case of avian flu on Friday, but said it had not yet established whether the virus found in domestic birds in the Danube delta was harmful to humans.

The Danube delta is Europe's largest wetlands and a major migratory area for wild birds coming from Russia, Scandinavia, Poland and Germany.

"We discovered today three cases of domestic birds which were tested positive for the avian flu in the village of Ceamurlia de Jos in the Danube delta," Agriculture Minister Gheorghe Flutur told reporters.

"There were three ducks in the yard of a peasant family."

Flutur said tests would be carried out to determine whether the flu was the deadly H5N1 strain or a less dangerous one.

"We will send the samples to Great Britain for a thorough analysis," he said.

[...] The Romanian minister said he had imposed quarantine for three kilometres (two miles) around the site and all domestic birds would be culled to prevent the disease from spreading in the environmentally sensitive delta.

Flutur also said hunting was banned across the delta and that health authorities had dispatched medical teams to start testing for possible human cases in the area, just a few km from the Black Sea.

The head of the country's veterinarian watchdog, Ion Agafitei, said final results of the tests were expected in a couple of days, adding: "We may find a less risky strain or a more dangerous one."

From Reuters, via Dan Spencer. I was in the Danube Delta for ten days a couple of summers ago. It is a beautiful place with a great variety of birds and vegetation. It will be very hard to keep a close watch on bird flu in the area, and any quarantine talk is plain silly.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 08, 2005 at 12:27 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 07, 2005

Bird flu conference starts in DC

Delegates from 80 countries met to mull the potentially catastrophic toll of a human pandemic spawned by bird flu Friday, as US officials confided that the only hope of containing an outbreak relied on transparency from sometimes secretive Asian governments. The US-led conference opened as President W. Bush prepared to meet makers of vaccines and treatments as part of an increasingly visible White House push on bird flu, which experts fear could kill millions if it mutates into a virus passed between humans.

So far the emphasis seems to have been sharing information more efficiently, read more here.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 07, 2005 at 10:36 AM in North America, Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 06, 2005

H5N1 wear

You can apparently buy it here. Thanks to is Ustinov for the link.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 06, 2005 at 03:27 PM in Economic Effects | Permalink | Comments (1)

Mike Leavitt on the US plans for fighting bird flu

"The good news is, we do have a vaccine," Leavitt [sD: the US Health and Human Services Secretary] said on CBS's The Early Show. But he cautioned that officials do not currently have an ability to mass produce it or get it to people quickly.

"It's enough of a possibility that it demands our attention," he said. "We have to be prepared all the time ... for that type of problem and we need to improve."

Outlining the pandemic plan in an interview Wednesday with The Associated Press, Leavitt said U.S. health officials would rush overseas to wherever a bird flu outbreak occurred and work with local officials to try to contain it.

"If you can get there fast enough and apply good public health techniques of isolating and quarantining and medicating and vaccinating the people in that area, you can ... squelch it or you can delay it," Leavitt said in an interview with The Associated Press.

[...] Role-playing different outbreak possibilities over the past few months led federal health officials to broaden their focus on how to detect a bird-flu mutation in another country and quickly send overseas help.

If that fails, the pandemic plans' first draft last year called for closing schools, restricting travel and other old-fashioned quarantine steps, depending on how fast the super-strain was spreading and its virulence. Those steps are getting renewed attention after President Bush's comments Tuesday that troops might have to be dispatched to enforce a mass quarantine.

Typically, state and local authorities deal with quarantine decisions â€” isolating the sick and closing large gatherings where diseases might spread.

"They have to be prepared, and frankly they're not," Leavitt said.

Read the entire story at the USA Today.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 06, 2005 at 10:30 AM in North America | Permalink | Comments (0)

Smuggling exotic birds

Read one account from the CDC on how a pair of crested hawk-eagles was smuggled from Thailand into Belgium in 2004. Thanks to Sasha for the link.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 06, 2005 at 10:02 AM in Poultry, Transmission | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 05, 2005

Indonesian update

A 23-year-old Indonesian man who kept birds has died from avian influenza, officials there said today, marking the seventh death they attribute to the H5N1 virus.

[...] Case counts vary. Wibowo's death represents the 8th case of avian flu in Indonesia and the 6th death, based on CIDRAP's analysis of news reports. The WHO currently recognizes 4 cases, with 3 deaths.

Indonesian officials today raised the number of suspected human cases from 60 to 85, AFP reported. However, only 3 Indonesians' deaths have been confirmed by WHO labs. Tests for three others are pending.

Read the entire story here. A week ago the number of suspected human cases in Indonesia was 57.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 05, 2005 at 11:06 PM in Indonesia, Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (1)

The 1918 pandemic was avian flu

Two teams of federal and university scientists announced today that they had resurrected the 1918 influenza virus, the cause of one of history's most deadly epidemics, and had found that unlike the viruses that caused more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the 1918 virus was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

The work, being published in the journals Nature and Science, involved getting the complete genetic sequence of the 1918 virus, using techniques of molecular biology to synthesize it, and then using it to infect mice and human lung cells in a specially equipped, secure lab at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

The findings, the scientists say, reveal a small number of genetic changes that may explain why the virus was so lethal. The work also confirms the legitimacy of worries about the bird flu viruses that are now emerging in Asia.

The new studies find that today's bird flu viruses share some of the crucial genetic changes that occurred in the 1918 flu. The scientists suspect that with the 1918 flu, changes in just 25 to 30 out of about 4,400 amino acids in the viral proteins turned the virus into a killer. The bird flus, known as H5N1 viruses, have a few, but not all of those changes.

Here is the full story, which contains many other points of interest. Today I started writing my piece on what we should do about avian flu.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 05, 2005 at 05:32 PM in History | Permalink | Comments (3)

October 04, 2005

A Bush plan for avian flu

President Bush said today that he was working to prepare the United States for a possibly deadly outbreak of avian flu. He said he had weighed whether to quarantine parts of the country and also whether to employ the military for the difficult task of enforcing such a quarantine.

"It's one thing to shut down your airplanes, it's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu," he said. Doing so, Mr. Bush said, might even involve using "a military that's able to plan and move."

The president had already raised, in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the delicate question of giving the military a larger role in responding to domestic disasters. His comment today appeared to presage a concerted push to change laws that limit military activities in domestic affairs.

Mr. Bush said he knew that some governors, all of them commanders of their states' National Guards, resented being told by Washington how to use their Guard forces.

"But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate," Mr. Bush said. One such circumstance, he suggested, would be an avian flu outbreak. He said a president needed every available tool "to be able to deal with something this significant."

Here is the full story. Here is the text of his remarks, with commentary from Glenn Reynolds.

I am hoping to write a longer piece on what we should do, but frankly Bush's idea had not crossed my mind. For a start, quarantines don't usually work, especially in a large, diverse, and mobile country. The Army would if anything spread the flu. A list of better ideas would include well-functioning public health care systems at the micro-level, early warning protocols, and good decentralized, robust plans for communication and possibly vaccine or drug distribution. Might the postal service be more important than the Army here? How about the police department, and the training of people in the local emergency room?

Stockpiling Tamiflu is worthwhile in expected value terms, but many strains of avian flu are developing resistance; we should not put all our eggs in this basket. We also should stockpile high-quality masks and antibiotics for secondary infections (often more dangerous than the flu itself), and more importantly have a good plan for distribution and dealing with extraordinary excess demand and possibly panic. Let's not ignore obvious questions like: "if the emergency room is jammed with contagious flu patients, where will other (non-flu) emergencies go?"

A good plan should also make us less vulnerable to terrorist attacks, storms, and other large-scale disasters. Robustness and some degree of redundancy are key. You can't centrally plan every facet of disaster response in advance; you need good institutions which are capable of improvising on the fly. In the meantime, let's have betting markets in whether a pandemic is headed our way; that would provide useful information.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 04, 2005 at 08:33 PM in North America | Permalink | Comments (4)

Bird flu awareness week

This is the latest initiative from the flu wiki. Here is the link to the program's home page, where you can read its mission statement and browse through a variety of information on bird flu. Spread the word!

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 04, 2005 at 09:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

US agency steps up preparation efforts

"What this is reflecting is a very intense commitment and effort by the government to be prepared for a flu pandemic," said Dr. S. Fauci, director for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda.

"I think you will see over the next couple months an even greater effort," he said.

The health research institute last week tapped MedImmune Inc., a Gaithersburg biotechnology company, to develop and test nasal-spray vaccines for influenza, including the H5N1 virus strain, which has caused the bird-flu epidemic in Asia.

MedImmune already markets a nasal-spray flu vaccine. Terms of its agreement with the institute were not disclosed.

The institute, part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), two weeks earlier awarded a $2.9 million grant to Vical Inc. of San Diego to develop a DNA-based vaccine to guard against naturally emerging forms of bird flu.

HHS also has invested in a bird-flu vaccine with a $100 million contract award last month to Sanofi Pasteur, the Swiftwater, Pa., vaccine business of French drug company Sanofi-Aventis Group. Sanofi Pasteur will make a vaccine that will protect against the H5N1 virus strain.

Dr. Fauci's institute since March has been testing another vaccine Sanofi Pasteur made from an inactive strain of avian influenza. Preliminary tests in August showed promise.

HHS last month bought 84,300 doses of zanamivir, an antiviral drug marketed as Relenza that treats bird flu, from British drug company GlaxoKline for $2.8 million.

Full story in the Washington Times.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 04, 2005 at 09:33 AM in North America | Permalink | Comments (0)

October 03, 2005

Randall on the Finnish vaccination campaign

Very good commentary from Future Pundit on the announced intention of the Finnish government to buy vaccines for the entire population. Randall starts an interesting debate, here's an excerpt:

I can think of two arguments for why a preliminary vaccine might help. I'd really like to know if either or both arguments have any scientific merit: A) Partial immunity from a premature vaccine would reduce the lethality of an eventual pandemic infection and/or Vaccination by a premature H5N1 vaccine would reduce the size or number of a later vaccine dose using a more exact antigen target made to match an eventual pandemic strain (assuming such a strain will arise).

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 03, 2005 at 11:37 AM in Vaccines | Permalink | Comments (1)

Another casualty in Indonesia

An elderly man suspected of contracting bird flu has died in hospital in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, after suffering from breathing difficulties.The 68-year-old man died on Sunday after being treated for two days for symptoms including high temperatures and coughing.However, the results of tests to determine whether he had bird flu will not be known until Tuesday.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 03, 2005 at 09:45 AM in Indonesia | Permalink | Comments (0)

Ampligen receives increased attention in Japan

Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc (AMEX: HEB) has signed a research agreement with the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, in Tokyo, Japan. The collaboration, by Hideki Hasegawa, M.D., Ph.D., Chief of the Laboratory of Infectious Disease Pathology, will assess Hemispherx' experimental therapeutic Ampligen® as an adjuvant to the Institution's nasal flu vaccine.

In a recent published study in the Journal of Virology (March 2005, p. 2910-2919), Dr. Hasegawa and colleagues found that double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), such as Ampligen®, increases the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine by more than 300% and Ampligen® may also convey cross-protection ability against variant viruses (mutated strains of influenza virus).

[...] In antimicrobial (antibacterial) therapy, which is the best studied clinical model, synergistic drug combinations may result in curative conditions/outcomes, often not observed when the single drugs are given alone. In the case of avian influenza where global drug supplies are presumptively in very limited supply relative to potential needs, therapeutic synergistic combinations could not only affect the disease outcome, but also the number of individuals able to access therapies.

By providing a new mechanism of inhibition of avian flu, (i.e. immunologic/host defensive immune cascades), Ampligen®, an experimental therapeutic, may also afford a new time interval to help combat the influenza virus. At present, a narrow window of opportunity (approximately 48 hours) exists for effective utilization of Tamilflu after exposure to influenza.

Read the entire story here.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 03, 2005 at 09:36 AM in Vaccines | Permalink | Comments (0)

CDC locks up flu data

Amid growing concerns that avian influenza will develop into a deadly pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is under fire by some in the scientific community for hoarding data crucial for vaccine development. The allegations come as CDC has issued new and controversial rules on what data, documents and other information it will â€” and will not â€” share with the public.

Open government advocates are critical of the CDC's "Information Security" manual, the 34-page document that gives officials 19 categories to shield data from public scrutiny without obtaining a "secret" classification.

Read the entire story in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Effect Measure covers the topic in two posts here and here.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 03, 2005 at 09:30 AM in North America | Permalink | Comments (2)

October 02, 2005

Coverage from Australia

Berkeley sends me the link to this story. The article focuses on bird flu preparedness in Australia, but much of the discussion is relevant to other countries as well. Here are some thoughts on quarantine:

Dr Graeme Laver, tells Sunday: "Quarantine won't work. You can imagine a guy in Bangkok, catching bird flu, getting on to a plane to Sydney. There's no symptoms at all. He's streaming out virus all over the plane. Nobody knows he's sick. He doesn't know he's sick. Everyone gets infected. They get off the plane in Sydney and it spreads the virus throughout Australia. You can't quarantine this thing. You can try, but we can't do it."

Posted by Silviu Dochia on October 02, 2005 at 10:12 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 30, 2005

Tamiflu resistance

Here is a CNN report:

Experts in Hong Kong said on Friday that the human H5N1 strain which surfaced in northern Vietnam this year had proved to be resistant to Tamiflu, a powerful antiviral drug which goes by the generic name, oseltamivir.

They urged drug manufacturers to make more effective versions of Relenza, another antiviral that is also known to be effective in battling the much feared H5N1. Relenza is inhaled.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on September 30, 2005 at 06:06 PM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (0)

Estimating the casualties from a pandemic

One of the big stories in yesterday's media was the grim statement made by the top UN official on the number of casualties we could expect from a flu pandemic:

Dr Nabarro of the World Health Organisation called on governments to take immediate steps to address the threat at a news conference following his appointment as the new UN co-ordinator to lead a global drive to counter a human flu pandemic.

[...] In a new pandemic, Nabarro said, "the range of deaths could be anything between five and 150 million".

"I believe the work we're doing over the next few months on prevention and preparedness will make the difference between, for example, whether the next pandemic leads us in the direction of 150 (million) or in the direction of five (million)," he said.

Today the WHO tried to distance itself from Nabarro's forecasts, defending a much lower figure, but warning that any estimates are not going to be precise:

"There is obvious confusion, and I think that has to be straightened out. I don't think you will hear Dr. Nabarro say the same sort of thing again," WHO influenza spokesman Dick told a news briefing.

The WHO, the U.N. health agency, conceded that all forecasts were guesswork and said Nabarro's comments had merely reflected widely diverging expert opinion.

"But we think that this is the most reasoned position," he added, referring to its long-standing forecast of 2-7.4 million, which comes from a study by the U.S.-based Centers for Disease Control (CDC), a WHO collaborating center.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on September 30, 2005 at 10:16 AM in Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (5)

NEJM article on avian flu

The latest New England Journal of Medicine contains a great article on what we know about avian influenza. It covers a wide range of issues, from transmission to clinical features and detection/treatment. Hat tip to Crawford Kilian.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on September 30, 2005 at 09:37 AM in Research | Permalink | Comments (1)

September 29, 2005

Bill Frist warns again about avian flu

Here is the Op-Ed. There is nothing here new to readers of this blog, but it is good to see a mainstream politician paying attention to the problem. Here is my favorite paragraph:

Right now, our national stockpiles of anti-viral drugs sit at dangerously low levels â€” about 2 percent of what we would need in a serious outbreak â€” and no existing vaccine can provide perfect protection against the avian flu virus. Vaccine and drug production in the United States, furthermore, couldn't make up this difference quickly enough were a serious outbreak to occur. While HHS has drafted a Pandemic Influenza Response and Preparedness Plan, it remains incomplete.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on September 29, 2005 at 09:54 PM in North America | Permalink | Comments (4)

The latest numbers from Indonesia

The Jakarta Post writes:

At least 63 people have been infected with or are suspected to have contracted bird flu in Indonesia this year, a health official said Thursday.

"For the whole of Indonesia, a total of 63 people have been suspected of infection or diagnosed as infected with bird flu since the first human infection case was found," said the official.

Of the 63, six have died but further tests are still being carried out on the latest fatality to confirm that the victim died of the virus.

Some of those infected with the virus have not shown any symptoms and others have made a full recovery, officials said.

These numbers are not yet confirmed by international agencies. It now seems that many of the Jakarta cases can be traced to the Ragunan Zoo, where by some accounts as many as 115 people may have been infected.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on September 29, 2005 at 11:28 AM in Indonesia, Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (1)

Finland to vaccinate entire population against bird flu

In response to a recommendation by the World Health Organization, according to which the avian influenza pandemic threat is real, Finland is preparing to vaccinate its entire population against the disease.

In the second supplementary budget for 2005, released by the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday, it was proposed that a total of EUR 20.8 million be allocated to finance the acquisition of 5.2 million bird flu vaccine doses.

Link.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on September 29, 2005 at 11:13 AM in Vaccines | Permalink | Comments (1)

September 28, 2005

Number of suspects up to 57 in Indonesia

At least 57 people were being treated on Wednesday for suspected bird flu in Indonesia, where the disease has already claimed six lives, officials said.

OF the total, 20 patients were under observation at Jakartaâ€™s Sulianti Saroso hospital for infectious diseases, a doctor there, Ilham Patu, said.

The latest suspected case, a 23-year-old man from the capital, was admitted late Tuesday.

Blood and muccus samples from the patients were being tested locally with any positive results indicating bird flu being sent to World Health Organization laboratories in Hong Kong for confirmation.

Source.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on September 28, 2005 at 09:05 AM in Indonesia, Status and Severity | Permalink | Comments (1)

September 27, 2005

Bird flu and Indonesian restaurants

People in Indonesia substituted away from chicken in recent weeks, with restaurants now offering more seafood and soy-based products. The biggest effect seems to be felt by small restaurants, while large fast food chains such as KFC are less affected. Read one account here.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on September 27, 2005 at 11:05 AM in Economic Effects, Indonesia | Permalink | Comments (1)

New test for bird flu

Scientists in Singapore said on Tuesday they have developed a test kit which can detect bird flu infections in poultry within four hours -- a tool which could help health officials control the spread of the deadly virus.

In the absence of a vaccine, early identification of the virus is especially important, and current tests used by laboratories take two to three days and sometimes up to a week.

From Reuters.

Posted by Silviu Dochia on September 27, 2005 at 10:08 AM in Research | Permalink | Comments (1)

Resources

CDC - Influenza (Flu) |Avian Flu WHO| Avian influenza Government Travel information CDC - Avian Influenza (Flu) | Key Facts CDC - Influenza (Flu) | Overview What's New: Weekly CDC Report Poultry link WHO Update : Search Results Current Bird Flu News: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - Avian influenza Singapore Government Bird Flu website BBC NEWS | Health | Q & A: Avian flu Technorati: Avian flu European News Briefs Avian flu podcasts CIDRAP - Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy ProMedmail Avian influenza disease and control strategies - Intervet NewsNow: Bird Flu

Disease outbreaks CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Flu Clinic Notes from the world of wildlife disease Bird Flu Today Flu Wiki - Main - HomePage Global Pandemic News iFlu.org WSJ News Tracker

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