Lilly Earnings Fall on Prozac Slump

April 15, 2002

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-health-elililly-earns.html

April 15, 2002

Eli Lilly Earnings Fall on Prozac Slump

By REUTERS

Filed at 12:02 p.m. ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY.N) on Monday said first-quarter

profits fell 22 percent as cheaper generics sliced into sales of its

antidepressant Prozac, but the drugmaker expects profits to rebound next

year on launches of new medicines.

The company said it sees fairly flat earnings for the full year 2002, though

results could hit the higher end of analysts' forecasts. For 2003, it

expects profit growth in a high-teen percentage rate, helped by

introductions of new drugs.

``Lilly numbers are right in line with expectations,'' said Banc of America

Securities analyst Len Yaffe. ``As long as they can get new products to

market in timely fashion...Lilly's future looks quite solid.''

First-quarter earnings for the Indianapolis firm fell to $629 million, or 58

cents per share, down from $807 million, or 74 cents per share and in line

with the analysts' average estimate compiled by Thomson Financial/First

Call.

This was the third consecutive quarterly earnings decline for Lilly, which

has fought to overcome loss of its U.S. patent protection for Prozac.

Lilly's revenues fell 9 percent to $2.56 billion, as Prozac revenues tumbled

70 percent to $186 million. Sales of newly approved Xigris were $22 million,

up only $1 million from the fourth quarter and below Yaffe's expectation of

$25 million.

Xigris, which treats sepsis, a deadly clotting disorder caused by blood

infections, was expected to become a blockbuster when Lilly launched it in

November.

Many doctors are not prescribing the drug due to concerns that it can cause

dangerous bleeding. But Lilly spokeswoman Terra Fox said physicians have

found the incidence of bleeding comparable to that seen in clinical trials,

which was ``only slightly higher'' than that in patients taking placebo

drugs.

Company officials said Xigris sales must accelerate in the second quarter in

order for it to achieve the $250 million projected for this year by

analysts.

Partly offsetting Prozac's evaporation of sales, revenues from Zyprexa

schizophrenia treatment jumped 29 percent to $819 million despite

competition from Pfizer Inc.'s (PFE.N) new Geodon drug. Osteoporosis

medicine Evista posted a 19 percent sales gain, and sales of cancer drug

Gemzar rose 14 percent.

Zyprexa sales topped $3 billion last year, making it the firm's best-selling

product. On Monday, however, Lilly said regulators in Japan will require a

warning on the medicine's label about hyperglycemia seen among some diabetes

patients and linked to two deaths.

It said the unusual occurrence of hyperglycemia, a condition in which the

body's level of blood sugar rises above normal levels, is already noted less

prominently on Zyprexa's label in the United States and Europe.

Lilly was up $1.43, or 2 percent, at $74.85 in morning New York Stock

Exchange trade. The stock is down 5 percent so far this year.

LOOKING AHEAD

Lilly forecast a second-quarter profit per share of 61 cents to 63 cents

before special items, in line with Wall Street expectations.

The company reiterated that it expects percentage sales growth in the low-

to mid-single digits for the full year and earnings per share of $2.70 to

$2.80 before unusual items -- assuming Xigris sales accelerate as expected.

Analysts' estimates range from $2.61 to $2.80, for an average of $2.71.

Lilly said it still targets high-teens earnings-per-share percentage growth

in 2003 before items. The First Call consensus earnings estimate is $3.18 a

share, from a range of $3.05 to $3.53.

The company hopes to overcome the Prozac slump by bringing a slew of new

medicines to market. It has one of the industry's strongest pipelines of

future medicines, a reason many analysts remain confident in the stock.

Lilly said on Monday that U.S. regulators are inspecting manufacturing

processes used to make experimental drugs duloxetine for depression,

atomoxetine for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and Cialis for

impotence.

The company said the inspections are on track and Lilly is confident it will

launch Cialis, osteoporosis treatment Forteo and duloxetine this year. But

the expected early 2003 launch of atomoxetine will be delayed until the

spring of that year because the FDA is requiring a small new trial to verify

that the drug is not addictive, Lilly said.

" All Truth passes through Three Stages: First, it is Ridiculed...

Second, it is Violently Opposed...

Third, it is Accepted as being Self-Evident. " - Arthur Schopenhauer

(1778-1860)

_________________________________________________________________

Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail.

http://www.hotmail.com

April 15, 2002