Re: Has the avian flu fizzled out?

[Guest guest]

HI Don,

There are 3 ways that H5N1 can turn into the pandemic strain and

reassortment is only one way. In Indonesia it is mutating , not

reassorting with the human flu anyways.

I think the news media is making too much out of the research and

perhaps giving people false hope.-

Don French wrote:

I think this is definitely a bit of

positive news, always welcome, especially as a new H2H cluster may

now be happening in Indonesia (http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7004409102)

.. However, this study was far from exhaustive. They only tried one of

fifty ways that genetic reassortment can happen between avian flu and

human flu.

Here is a cautionary note from one

of the articles on this study:

There are, in fact, more than 50 virus combinations out there.

"We chose to use some that had what we believed the greatest

likelihood of being a good virus that grew well and was viable and

therefore had the potential for transmission. But there are many other

combinations that we could investigate in the future," Katz said.

Also, there are new versions of H5N1 and H3N2 that need to be

tested.

The good news is that the ferret model used for this study as well

as a guinea pig model currently under development are viable research

tools.

"Overall, this work tells us we have a good research tool to

assess the ongoing genetic changes that H5N1 viruses may acquire and

that may enhance the ability to transmit efficiently," Katz said.

"We need to continue these studies, and the first study has shown that

we now have a good model for continued assessment of more recent

strains for their ability to re-assort with human strains, and that is

work that is ongoing at the moment."

But we're still far short of being out of the woods, Gerberding

warned.

"The flu is always unpredictable," she said. "We've got

strains emerging probably as we speak. Let's not use the word

'reassuring' in terms of what might happen with H5N1."

http://news./s/hsn/20060801/hl_hsn/birdflupandemicmaynotdevelop

[Guest guest]

No one really knows how many mutations the virus needs to go human to

human. You may remember that the virus in the last person in the

Indonesia cluster in May had 21 mutations. even scientists were

suprised at that, -I don't know if you know there are currently 2

clusters of suspect cases -9 people - in the same area as the May

cluster. The news came out last night. Not much in the US news about

it, but I saw it on the "ticker" on the cnn news, BBC covered it too.If

those cases come out positive, a pandemic could be right around the

corner.-I have not read all my e-mail yet, so i don't know if it was

posted here.

cginca96 wrote:

>

> HI Don,

> There are 3 ways that H5N1 can turn into the pandemic strain and

> reassortment is only one way. In Indonesia it is mutating , not

> reassorting with the human flu anyways.

> I think the news media is making too much out of the research and

> perhaps giving people false hope.-

>

Perhaps it is false hope, but at least we can say we were spared a

pandemic for this past winter. And didn't the preliminary research

say mutation could last several years before it hits humans full force?

Is our government even going to be able to AFFORD treatment? We can't

even afford the war anymore, why would we think we could afford a

medical disaster?

[Guest guest]

9 suspect bf patients in Karo, Indonesia ()

http://asia.news./060802/kyodo/d8j845jq0.html

I hope the link works:-)

Don wrote:

-I don't know if you know there are currently 2 clusters of

> suspect cases -9 people - in the same area as the May cluster. The

news

> came out last night.

I mentioned this in my earlier post, Elke, the one you replied to.

The link I provided mentions one new cluster of seven people, not two

of nine. I still can't find any mention of two new clusters. Do you

have a link?

[Guest guest]

I think this is definitely a bit of positive news, always welcome, especially as a new H2H cluster may now be happening in Indonesia (http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7004409102) . However, this study was far from exhaustive. They only tried one of fifty ways that genetic reassortment can happen between avian flu and human flu.

Here is a cautionary note from one of the articles on this study:

There are, in fact, more than 50 virus combinations out there.

"We chose to use some that had what we believed the greatest likelihood of being a good virus that grew well and was viable and therefore had the potential for transmission. But there are many other combinations that we could investigate in the future," Katz said.

Also, there are new versions of H5N1 and H3N2 that need to be tested.

The good news is that the ferret model used for this study as well as a guinea pig model currently under development are viable research tools.

"Overall, this work tells us we have a good research tool to assess the ongoing genetic changes that H5N1 viruses may acquire and that may enhance the ability to transmit efficiently," Katz said. "We need to continue these studies, and the first study has shown that we now have a good model for continued assessment of more recent strains for their ability to re-assort with human strains, and that is work that is ongoing at the moment."

But we're still far short of being out of the woods, Gerberding warned.

"The flu is always unpredictable," she said. "We've got strains emerging probably as we speak. Let's not use the word 'reassuring' in terms of what might happen with H5N1." http://news./s/hsn/20060801/hl_hsn/birdflupandemicmaynotdevelop

[Guest guest]

>

> HI Don,

> There are 3 ways that H5N1 can turn into the pandemic strain and

> reassortment is only one way. In Indonesia it is mutating , not

> reassorting with the human flu anyways.

> I think the news media is making too much out of the research and

> perhaps giving people false hope.-

>

Perhaps it is false hope, but at least we can say we were spared a

pandemic for this past winter. And didn't the preliminary research

say mutation could last several years before it hits humans full force?

Is our government even going to be able to AFFORD treatment? We can't

even afford the war anymore, why would we think we could afford a

medical disaster?

[Guest guest]

-I don't know if you know there are currently 2 clusters of

> suspect cases -9 people - in the same area as the May cluster. The

news

> came out last night.

I mentioned this in my earlier post, Elke, the one you replied to.

The link I provided mentions one new cluster of seven people, not two

of nine. I still can't find any mention of two new clusters. Do you

have a link?

[Guest guest]

Oh don't worry. If Avian Flu can't manage to become H2H on its own,

some terrorists will engineer it. It is just a matter of time.

[Guest guest]

It appears that suspect cases have proved negative.

http://news./s/afp/20060803/wl_asia_afp/healthfluindonesia

> 9 suspect bf patients in Karo, Indonesia ()

> http://asia.news./060802/kyodo/d8j845jq0.html

> I hope the link works:-)

>

> Don wrote:

>

> > -I don't know if you know there are currently 2 clusters of

> > > suspect cases -9 people - in the same area as the May cluster.

The

> > news

> > > came out last night.

> >

> > I mentioned this in my earlier post, Elke, the one you replied to.

> > The link I provided mentions one new cluster of seven people, not

two

> > of nine. I still can't find any mention of two new clusters. Do

you

> > have a link?

> >

> >

>