NY Times reporter weighs 1918 flu pandemic

[Guest guest]

New York Times reporter weighs repeat of 1918 flu pandemic

By: Gross, Staff Writer 09/15/2006

First of series of talks begin at Princeton Public Library

Imagine quarantined airports, overwhelmed hospitals and widespread

power outages.

Picture eerily quiet workplaces — empty of employees who sit at

home for fear of falling ill.

Envision grocery stores looted of supplies as an influenza

pandemic spreads from country to country and city to city.

This scenario, author and New York Times science and medical

writer Kolata said, is outlined in a 300-plus page report

written by the federal government that depicts the fallout of a

possible influenza pandemic.

Ms. Kolata, a Princeton Borough resident and former Board of

Education member, made her presentation at the Princeton Public

Library on Wednesday evening.

The scene depicted in the report, she said, resembles what

happened during the influenza pandemic of 1918.

But it cannot be determined yet if history will repeat itself, she

pointed out.

Flu, Ms. Kolata said, can be " nature's weapon of mass

destruction, " although it " is hardly the only biological threat the

government worries about. "

Wednesday's presentation, which questioned if an actual pandemic

could occur from the notorious avian flu that has surfaced in Asia,

was part of a three-part series hosted by the library and the

Princeton Regional Health Commission titled, " Pandemic Influenza

Threat: Understand and Prepare. "

Ms. Kolata, the first of three speakers, said it is still too

early to tell whether the United States could be threatened by the

virus.

Just as anthrax anxiety and smallpox scares frightened some

Americans after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the avian flu threat

could be as easily misrepresented, Ms. Kolata said. Only time will

tell, she added.

" A question for a reporter — as it was then, as it is now —

is, 'How scared should you be?' " Ms. Kolata said.

Prior to Ms. Kolata's presentation, Henry, Princeton's

health officer, told the library's packed Community Room that the

Princeton Regional Health Commission and the library worked on the

program last fall when the influenza threat began to emerge in the

media.

The program, he added, is aimed to present information on

individual and community preparedness.

" The goal is not to scare anyone, but to educate Princetonians and

the public, " Mr. Henry noted.

Ms. Kolata has written several books, including " Flu: The Story of

the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus

that Caused It. " She has received numerous awards for her coverage of

science and health issues and previously wrote for Science magazine.

During her presentation, Ms. Kolata contrasted and compared the

1918 influenza pandemic that is estimated to have killed millions to

the current bird flu.

Although the influenza virus that devastated the world in 1918

shares several characteristics with the current avian flu — both, for

example, originated in birds — Ms. Kolata said they are not entirely

similar. Currently, she added, there is no predicting whether the

current strand of bird flu, H5N1, will evolve into a pandemic.

" I would worry when scientists say it's been spreading from person

to person rapidly anywhere in the world, " she said.

To round out the discussion on the influenza threat, the library

will host presentations Wednesday and Sept. 28, both at 7:30 p.m.

Wednesday's presentation will be given by H. Kahn, an

associate research scholar at Princeton University's Woodrow

School of Public and International Affairs' Program in Science and

Global Security. Dr. Kahn, who is also a member of the health

commission, will discuss viruses, the origins of pandemics and how

influenza spreads.

On Sept. 28, the library will hold a panel discussion on how the

community could prepare for a possible pandemic.

Prospective panelists include Mr. Henry; Dr. Bonwell, head of

infection control at University Medical Center at Princeton; Grayson

Barber, a Princeton attorney; and Ted Cashel, emergency response

specialist for the Homeland Security Branch of the New Jersey State

Police.

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