Warning over length of flu pandemic

February 6, 2008

Wednesday 6th February 2008

Any future flu pandemic could last for up to six months, a government

minister has admitted.

However, health minister Lord Darzi of Denham said the probable length

of an outbreak would give enough time for a targeted vaccine to be

produced.

He was responding to a question posed in the House of Lords by Tory

Lord Swinfen, who had asked whether there would be enough time in the

event of a pandemic to produce a vaccine.

Lord Darzi said: " It is very difficult to predict the exact timings of

a pandemic. We are not even sure whether we can get a second wave or

third wave of a pandemic.

" The first pandemic in 1918 had a second wave and third wave. The last

two in 1957 and 1968 also had a second wave.

" We are predicting in our modelling that it will be six months, which

will be enough time to create vaccinations with the strain that is

infectious in the first pandemic. "

Lord Darzi added that the government had enough stocks of the

anti-viral Tamiflu to cover 25% of the population likely to be

affected by a pandemic.

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