37,000 at risk of death if pandemic flu strikes Wales

[Guest guest]

Around 37,000 at risk of death if pandemic flu strikes

Jul 24 2008 by on, Western Mail, WalesOnline

HALF the population of Wales could fall ill and 37,000 people may die

if the nation is hit by a pandemic flu outbreak, according to Assembly

Government estimates.

Experts are preparing for a surge in admissions to hospitals and

clinics, pressures on mortuaries and demand for dignified funerals.

Arrangements are in place to obtain vaccines for the entire population

once a pandemic breaks out and the strain is identified.

Chief Medical Officer for Wales Dr Tony Jewell said: " As is the case

with influenza, the majority of care in a pandemic will be provided in

people's own homes with the support of primary and social care

services. This strategy will help to ensure that hospitals have the

capacity to deal with those patients that develop complications that

require hospital treatment and are also able to cope with the routine

emergency admissions that occur every day. "

He added: " A key part of managing a pandemic will be public support to

help reduce the spread of infection. As we move into a pandemic,

public health messages will reinforce the importance of people

adopting good routine hygiene practices such as regular hand washing

and also for the public to stay at home at the first sign of symptoms.

" The public will also be advised as to how they can access treatment

if it is needed. In the meantime, work is continuing across

organisations on business continuity plans and partnership working so

that key public services can be maintained through a pandemic or other

emergency situation.

" With the increase in numbers of people becoming ill during a pandemic

there is likely to be an increase in the number of people who will

die. The Home Office is leading work across England and Wales on

developing arrangements to manage the potential increase in the number

of deaths.

" This includes increasing business continuity of death certification

and registration, funeral services and burials and cremations, and

increasing mortuary capacity. Every effort will be made to ensure

dignity for the deceased is maintained and respected. "

The medical and scientific community is braced for any future strain

of the bird flu virus which could be passed among humans. There are

fears that even if this does not emerge, another flu pandemic will hit

Wales.

The Assembly Government described its plans in response to a Freedom

of Information request from the Western Mail.

The possibility that 50% of the population – 1,485,000 people – could

fall ill is described as a " reasonably foreseeable worst- case scenario " .

Previous pandemics have had a fatality rate of between 0.2% and 2%.

The statement reads: " With a clinical attack rate at the highest rate

of 50% a fatality rate of 0.4% would lead to 5,900 excess deaths while

one of 2.5% would lead to 37,000 excess deaths. "

There are no plans to quarantine individuals or communities.

An Assembly Government spokesman said: " [We plan] to procure more

medicines to increase preparedness in Wales in the event of a pandemic

flu outbreak, subject to approval from the Treasury. The plan includes

increasing the antiviral stockpile to deal with a worst-case scenario,

with further antivirals to cover people in the households of those

that become ill.

" The plan also includes procurement of pre-pandemic vaccines for

at-risk groups, and antibiotics to treat cases that get secondary

bacterial infections such as pneumonia. "

, chairman of BMA Cymru's GP committee, said: " The whole

of British general practice will drop stumps and deal with it... You

just roll your sleeves up and get on with it. "

He added: " It's not going to be possible to treat the majority of

these patients in hospital because, simply, there won't be room. "

A focus will be on preventing cross-contamination. Telephone advice

will be given where possible.

The Royal College of Nursing wants its members to have as much

protection before an outbreak occurs as possible as they will be on

the frontline of any pandemic.

, interim director of RCN Wales, said: " It is the case

that no-one knows if or when a pandemic will hit the UK and how

serious it could be. If a pandemic occurs, nurses will be at the

centre of plans to implement the vaccination programme, manage the use

of hospital beds.

" They will also train care support workers to administer flu

vaccinations and other nursing activities while advising on workforce

developments during the crisis. It is therefore important that they

and all healthcare workers are protected from the virus before an

outbreak occurs. "

Professor Eccles, director of the Common Cold Centre at Cardiff

University, said: " There is no doubt it will hit us at some time. It

could be something much milder than we expect; it could be a total

disaster for the world. "

The last major pandemic surfaced in Hong Kong in 1968 and spread to

the United States where it caused around 33,800 deaths.

Prof Eccles said: " A lot of people did die. I can remember school

colleagues who had fathers away in Asia who died from it. "

The Westminster Department of Health is spearheading a drive to

encourage better hygiene through its " Catch it, Bin it, Kill it "

campaign. A Welsh version, " Coughs and Sneezes Spread Diseases " is

targeted at schools.

Professor Lindsey Davies, National Director of Pandemic Influenza

Preparedness, said in a statement of support for the English publicity

drive: " Good hygiene practice (both hand and respiratory) will have a

major role to play in slowing the spread of pandemic influenza and we

hope that by getting staff and the public into good habits now, we

will be well prepared to respond when a pandemic arrives. "

Liberal Democrat health spokeswoman Randerson said: " Half the

country experiencing symptoms, and up to 37,000 deaths are sobering

figures. It shows all of us must remain vigilant about this disease. "

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health-news/2008/07/24/around-37-000-at-risk-o\

f-death-if-pandemic-flu-strikes-91466-21394029/