World bank says flu pandemic would cause major global recession

October 16, 2008

And that is with a mere 71 million deaths!

Cost of Severe Flu Pandemic Raised to $3 Trillion by World Bank

By Gale

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- A possible flu outbreak killing 71 million

people worldwide would push the global economy into a ``major global

recession'' costing more than $3 trillion, according to revised

estimates by the World Bank.

A slump in tourism, transportation and retail sales, as well as

workplace absenteeism and lower productivity caused by a ``severe''

outbreak would probably cut global gross domestic product by 4.8

percent, the Washington-based bank said in a report obtained by

Bloomberg News. Economic modeling by the bank released in June 2006,

estimated a 3.1 percent drop in GDP worth about $2 trillion.

Measures taken to avoid infection would account for most of the cost,

according to the report, which used simulations to underline the

importance of mobilizing global efforts to prepare for a pandemic

sparked by bird flu. Human cases of the H5N1 avian influenza strain

have fallen by half this year, reflecting success in controlling

poultry outbreaks.

``Even with such efforts, an eventual human pandemic at some unknown

point in the future is virtually inevitable,'' bank economists

Burns, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe and Hans Timmer wrote in the

report. ``Because such a pandemic would spread very quickly,

substantial efforts need to be put into place to develop effective

strategies and contingency plans that could be enacted at short

notice. Much more research and coordination at the global level are

required.''

The bank, which funds projects to alleviate poverty, is working with

developing countries to improve hospitals and laboratories to bolster

disease surveillance and management of avian flu.

At least 387 people in 15 countries have been infected with the H5N1

virus since 2003, according to the World Health Organization. Almost

two of every three cases were fatal. So far this year, 36 cases have

been reported, down from 74 in the first 10 months of 2007.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gale in Singapore at

j.gale@....

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