Wales conference discusses Avian Flu

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Bird flu outbreak could kill 3,000 people a week

Jul 12 2008 by on, Western Mail, Wales Online.

A BIRD flu pandemic in Wales could result in an extra 3,000 people

dying a week, it was claimed yesterday.

The resilience co-ordinator for the Welsh Assembly Government told a

conference in Cardiff that if avian flu becomes transferable between

people, the number of weekly deaths in the country could jump from 600

to 3,600.

And Neil insisted the pandemic was inevitable, saying: " It

remains at the top of our list in that it's going to happen. We don't

know when. "

He also told the conference Wales was " lucky " to escape the floods

that devastated parts of the Midlands last year, was ill-prepared to

deal with a major shipping disaster off its coast, and could become

the focus of a terrorist attack.

" The water that landed on Gloucester should have landed on us, " said

Mr .

" All the forecasts were of terrible rain in this area. We were lucky,

they were not.

" One of the lessons we've learned is it's going to be awful. There is

no way of stopping it. The fact there are still people living in

caravan homes in Gloucestershire frightens me to death. "

Meanwhile, experts continue to brace themselves for a terrorist

attack, and an emergency co-ordination centre has been established in

the basement of the Ass- embly's 350,000 sq ft headquarters in Cathays

Park in Cardiff.

It features secure communications which will allow the military and

emergency services to stay in touch during a crisis.

Mr , speaking at the Dealing with Disasters conference, backed by

the University of Glamorgan and held at the Cardiff International

Arena, added: " I'm sure the terrorists still prefer a London

experience because it gets better publicity. But, as London gets

stronger, a terrorist will select other places. "

Describing how emergency teams would struggle to respond to a disaster

involving a cruise ship off the Welsh coast, he said: " There is no

system that exists in the United Kingdom that can rescue 5,000

passengers from a liner at sea, and I find that a little bit difficult

to deal with.

" The capacity to hold bodies and deal with bodies in an acceptable

fashion in the 21st century presents a great degree of difficulty. "

Health Minister Hart told the conference the Assembly had

grasped the potential of the flu spreading to other countries.

" In the UK, we currently assess the highest risk as an influenza-type

pandemic, like the outbreak in 1918 which killed 228,000 people in the

United Kingdom and an estimated 20 to 40 million worldwide, " she said.

" Experts agree there is a high probability of a pandemic occurring –

and that, as the Sars outbreak showed, the speed at which it could

spread has increased with globalisation.

" The avian influenza outbreak we experienced in North Wales in May of

last year provided a clear demonstration of how a disease can take

hold and spread.

" Had the strain been highly contagious to humans then it could have

spread from a small village in North Wales to the rest of the world in

just a few days.

" Had a child in that small village school in Corwen contracted a

virulent disease it would have infected children from the Swedish and

Polish schools which had visited that week.

" In the same way, the teacher who left on leave that week to the

United States would possibly have spread it there. "

An Assembly spokesman said: " The Welsh Assembly Government plans to

procure more medicines to increase preparedness in Wales in the event

of a pandemic flu outbreak, subject to approval from the Treasury.

" The plan includes increasing the antiviral stockpile to deal with a

worst-case scenario, with further antivirals to cover people in the

households of those that are ill. "

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