Pandemic will threaten coal, power supplies

[Guest guest]

Report says pandemic will threaten coal, power supplies

Roos * News Editor

Nov 20, 2008 (CIDRAP News) – A new report from the University of

Minnesota warns that an influenza pandemic could disrupt the coal

industry, thereby endangering the nation's significantly

coal-dependent electric power system and everything that depends on it.

" Despite regional differences in coal usage, a pandemic is likely to

break links in the coal supply chain, thus disrupting electrical

generation. This has the potential to severely endanger the bulk

electrical power system in most of the United States, " says the report

from the university's Center for Infectious Disease Research and

Policy (CIDRAP), publisher of CIDRAP News.

The report says that current federal preparedness plans do not address

the possibility of power supply problems resulting from reduced coal

shipments during a pandemic. A key planning gap, it says, is that

federal plans put coal industry workers among those last in line for

pandemic vaccines and antiviral drugs.

The authors, CIDRAP research assistant Kelley, MSPH, and

CIDRAP Director T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, recommend that power

plants stockpile coal to last much longer than the average 30-day

supply they have now and that the nation prepare now for disruptions

in the coal-supply chain and electrical service. They also urge that

coal industry workers be put in the highest priority group for

pandemic vaccines and antivirals.

Coal-dependent nation

In 2007, the nation's 620 coal-fired power plants supplied 48.6% of

the nation's electric power, the report says. The reliance on coal

varies by region, ranging from 74% in the Midwest to 5% on the West Coast.

Almost 40% of the nation's coal production in 2007 came from the

low-sulfur mines in Wyoming's Powder River Basin (PRB), which yielded

453.6 million tons, according to the report. With mines from

neighboring Montana included, the basin's 17 mines produced 479.5

million tons. Most of this coal is hauled by train to distant power

plants, some as far away as Georgia.

A pair of Wyoming train derailments in May 2005 suggested how an

interruption in coal from the PRB could affect the energy industry.

Two coal trains on a 103-mile line that connects the region's coal

fields with the national rail network derailed on consecutive days in

May. The line, which has three tracks, was out of service for 3 weeks.

During the shutdown, power plants burning PRB coal had to draw down

their stockpiles. " By September 2005, many power plants were down to

less than 10 days of coal in their stockpile, with some reporting only

2 days of coal on hand, " the report states. " Plant Schere, in

tte,Georgia, for example, . . . was reduced to 2 days of coal and

chose to import coal from Indonesia in an effort to rebuild its coal

stockpile. "

As a result of the incident, 25 of 27 utilities and other entities

that relied on PRB coal took coal-conservation steps, such as buying

electric power from other utilities, reducing generating time, and

buying coal from other sources. In the wake of the episode, the energy

industry was still rebuilding coal stocks through 2007, the federal

Energy Information Administration reported.

" The disruption in 2005 could've been catastrophic if we didn't have

the coal conservation strategies the report talked about, " CIDRAP's

Kelley said in an interview. " People say 2005 wasn't bad, but those

conservation strategies likely wouldn't be available in a pandemic.

That's one of the big take-homes from the report. "

Kelley and Osterholm also examined records related to the flu pandemic

of 1918 and found that it caused " serious disruptions " in coal

supplies. Their report doesn't cite evidence of effects on energy

production, but anthracite (hard coal) shipments dropped about one

sixth, there were reports of coal shortages in New York City, many

mines cut production, and some had to shut down for weeks.

Gaps in guidance documents

The authors reviewed a dozen pandemic planning guidance documents,

including those from the federal government, the World Health

Organization, and energy industry groups such as the North American

Electric Reliability Council. While one plan, that of the National

Infrastructure Advisory Council, notes the importance of coal

transportation, " none of the 12 documents prioritizes the mining of

coal, " the report says. " This absence is likely due to coal not being

listed as a critical infrastructure or key resource. "

Further, coal industry workers, depending on their age and health, are

classified with the general population, the lowest priority group, for

access to pandemic vaccines and antivirals, the report says. Critical

transportation workers, such as train engineers, rank slightly

higher—in the third tier—for a severe pandemic, but are placed in the

general population in a moderate pandemic, according to the federal

allocation plan.

The report asserts that federal pandemic plans have failed to " (1)

conceptualize the magnitude of supply chain disruptions that will

occur in a global just-in-time economy, (2) address how to prevent

pandemic-related electric power disruptions, and (3) offer guidance on

how to respond if electrical power is disrupted during a pandemic. "

The authors conclude, " Current levels of pandemic planning are likely

insufficient to sustain the coal supply chain during a pandemic; the

link between the public health response and reliable access to

coal-fueled electricity is neither understood nor addressed in current

pandemic plans in the United States. " They add that the public health

sector would have great difficulty functioning without a stable supply

of electricity during a pandemic.

The reasons for this gap, the authors suggest, include the perception

that pandemic planning is largely a public health issue, the lack of a

meaningful model or conceptual framework for assessing

pandemic-related supply chain disruptions in today's economy, and a

lack of leadership in pandemic planning for the nation's critical

infrastructure.

Fuel left out of the picture

In an interview, Osterholm said pandemic planning in the electric

power industry has focused on the power plants and components

downstream from them, such as the transmission lines, giving little

attention to fuel supplies. In part this reflected a planning model

from Ontario, which didn't address fuel, because the power plants

there are mostly hydroelectric.

" The coal industry was almost forgotten. The fact that coal miners

were not placed in any of the top three tiers for vaccines is

indicative of that, " Osterholm said.

Utility regulatory agencies have generally ignored the issue, he

added. " This has almost been a non-issue for them; they have not made

coal stocks for a naturally occurring event like a pandemic a priority

in any way. It's not on their radar screen. "

Four recommendations

The report recommends four steps to address the vulnerability of the

coal and power industries to pandemic-related disruptions.

The first is to increase power-plant coal stockpiles so that plants

could keep going longer if coal shipments are interrupted. Currently,

stockpiles reach their annual peak as utilities prepare for peak

summer power demand. The report says this current peak should become

the year-round minimum stockpile at all coal-fired plants.

Second, coal miners and support workers should be in the highest

priority group for access to antiviral drugs, pandemic vaccine, and

other critical products and services. " The entire coal supply chain,

from mine to transport, and critical electrical-sector employees,

should be placed in tier 1 of the federal vaccine allocation plan, "

the report states.

Third, the nation should plan for disruptions in the coal supply

chain. Without careful planning, the disruptions may be similar to

what happened after the 2005 derailments: " Coal shipments are likely

to be reduced by at least 15% to 20% for periods up to 60 days, " the

report says.

Finally, the country should " anticipate and develop strategies for

responding to disruptions in electrical service. " Utilities are

prepared for outages caused by storms, but most are not prepared to

deal with fuel shortages, because they are rare and localized, the

report asserts.

Increasing stockpiles tops the list

The most urgent of the four steps is to increase power-plant coal

stockpiles, Osterholm said. With larger stockpiles, he said, " Even if

the mines go down or rail service is interrupted, we may be able to

get through extended periods of time until we can get the mines back

up and running and the trains moving. "

He added that even if miners have priority access to pandemic

vaccines, they might still have to wait months for a vaccine

well-matched to the pandemic virus. " Increasing coal stocks gives us a

better opportunity to reduce that impact, " he said.

The report says energy industry experts are aware of pandemic-related

risks, but little has been done about them, mainly because of the cost

of increasing power-plant coal stocks in current market conditions. In

the 1970s, power plants kept a 2- to3-month supply of coal on hand,

but utility commissions encouraged them to reduce that to 30 days to

save money.

" Most public utility commissions will not allow power companies to

raise their electricity rates solely for the purpose of increasing

their coal stocks, " the document states.

Also, Osterholm acknowledged that spending money to build up coal

stocks is likely to be a tough sell amid the current economic

downturn. " I realize that you can't ignore the realities of this

historic financial crisis, but if we don't address these issues, we'll

pay a very heavy price at the time of the next pandemic, " he said.

Miners union endorses report

After receiving a copy of the report, a spokesman for the United Mine

Workers of America (UMWA) strongly endorsed the recommendation that

coal miners have priority access to pandemic vaccines and antivirals.

" Without coal, more than half of the nation's lights go out and

computers go off. Without coal miners, there is no coal, " said

J. Kane, the UMWA's international secretary-treasurer. " Leaving

America's coal miners out of contingency planning for a potential

nationwide influenza pandemic makes no sense and puts America at risk.

CIDRAP's study demonstrates the clear need for miners to have priority

access to antiviral drugs, vaccines, and critical services should a

pandemic strike our nation. We wholeheartedly support that finding. "

CIDRAP News also asked the US Department of Health and Human Services

(HHS) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to comment on the

report. HHS officials did not respond in time for this article.

Feaster of DHS deferred the request to the Department of

Energy, saying DOE oversees energy security issues.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/biz-plan/news/nov2008coal.htm\

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