200,000 would die and public order could break down

[Guest guest]

200,000 would die and public order could break down in flu pandemic

As many as 200,000 people would die and public order could break down if Britain

were hit by a full-scale flu pandemic, according to an official planning

document. By Beckford, Health Correspondent

The Department of Health report says that half the population could develop

symptoms of the disease, possibly " overwhelming " hospitals and doctors as well

as costing the economy £28billion, but police and the army would be unable to

help as their forces would also be depleted.

It says the outbreak of a new influenza pandemic is " one of the greatest threats

facing the UK " as it could not be stopped from spreading and vaccines would take

months to develop.

However the report also points out that the wave of swine flu that spread from

Mexico two years ago was " very mild " in comparison with previous pandemics,

although the public wrongly believed that the " worst-case scenario " was likely

to take hold.

The UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011 is the first update to

official advice since the H1N1 virus killed " significantly less than one

million " people in 2009. In Britain, 457 people died from the pandemic flu

strain between June 200 and March 2010.

By contrast, the 1918-19 " Spanish Flu " outbreak killed up to 50million while the

" Asian Flu " pandemic of 1957-58 and the " Hong Kong flu " a decade later each

killed up to 4million.

But the report says the authorities in Britain must remain prepared for another

pandemic, and based on the " reasonable worst case " assessment, " up to 50% of the

population could experience symptoms of pandemic influenza during a single

pandemic wave lasting 15 weeks, although the nature and severity of the symptoms

would vary from person to person. "

Although the number of extra deaths is " impossible to predict " , it says: " Local

authorities in conjunction with local service providers should ensure that they

have plans in place to surge their capacity to cope with an increase in burials

and cremations during a pandemic (for up to 200,000). "

It warns: " In a severe pandemic, factors such as pressures on the health

services, potential prioritisation of clinical countermeasures, measures to

control the spread of infection, possible shortages of basic necessities or

short-lived disruption to essential services could result in disturbances or

threaten breakdowns in public order. "

However there will be " reduced police availability through illness " , and the

Armed Forces " will be equally vulnerable to illness " .

The report says " it will not be possible to stop the spread or eradicate the

pandemic influenza virus… as it will spread too rapidly and too widely " .

There is " very little evidence " that wearing face masks slows the spread of the

illness, and the Government says it has " no plans " to close borders, restrict

public gatherings or shut schools because it may not help and may damage " public

morale " as well as the economy.

Although the Government has stockpiled two types of antiviral medicines that can

reduce symptoms of flu, a vaccine specific to any new strain could take " at

least four to six months " to develop.

Treatment or protective vaccines are likely to be restricted to at-risk groups,

such as young children or pregnant women, or frontline health workers.

Normal hospital services would have to be rationed " in an ethically appropriate

way " as the NHS would be " at risk of being overwhelmed " in a short pandemic.

Citizens would be told to develop a " household emergency plan " and to help

friends and neighbours who are ill, as well as more basic advice on

hand-washing.

However the study admits that it is difficult for the Government to communicate

clearly the potential risks as well as the actual situation during an outbreak.

It says: " A lesson learned from the 2009 influenza pandemic was that calling the

planning assumptions `reasonable' was not well-understood.

" Many people wrongly thought that it meant this was the likely scenario. "

Diane Abbott, Labour's shadow public health spokesman, said: " There needs to be

a pre-emptive vaccination campaign targeted at children and young people, which

could help to avert a major pandemic. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8399219/200000-would-die-and-public\

-order-could-break-down-in-flu-pandemic.html