Mathematical Modeling Of Migratory Birds, Domestic Poultry And

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Mathematical Modeling Of Migratory Birds, Domestic Poultry And Bird Flu

The persistence and recurrence of H5N1 avian influenza in endemic regions can

largely be blamed on movement and infection by migratory birds. Trade in

poultry, poultry products and caged birds, and movement of wild birds also

account for H5N1 prevalence in these areas. Several recent outbreaks of avian

influenza have suggested strong evidence of migratory birds playing a role in

transmitting the virus over long distances.

In a paper published last week in the SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics,

authors Lydia Bourouiba, A. Gourley, Rongsong Liu, and Jianhong Wu

analyze the interaction between non-migratory poultry and migratory birds in

order to investigate the role of the latter in the spread of H5N1.

Although avian influenza rarely infects humans, occasional cases of human

infection have been observed since the late nineties. Moreover, it is a huge

problem in the poultry industry since infected flocks can cause a drain on

resources and threaten food supply. It can also result in significant reduction

in wild bird populations, which is of great ecological concern.

" How the interaction of a migratory bird species with domestic poultry

contributes to the spread and persistence of the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus is

a question of profound importance to the control of avian influenza spread, and

to the effort of mitigating the impact of the disease on the domestic poultry

industry, " says corresponding author Gourley, researcher in the

Department of Mathematics at the University of Surrey. " Answering this question

requires a truly interdisciplinary approach involving collaborations from

different fields. Mathematical modeling can play a significant role in solving

such a complex problem in which experiments are difficult and surveillance data

is limited. " ...

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/221501.php