The flu truth (The Age, Australia)

[Guest guest]

The flu truth May 5, 2011

The flu season is back and once again the flu vaccine probably won't get the

kind of appreciation it deserves.

There are a few reasons why people don't bother to get the seasonal flu shot.

Perhaps the main one is that most people don't think the flu is that big a deal.

For most healthy young people it isn't, but even so we can still have too

relaxed a view of the flu. That little sniffle that makes you feel a bit scuzzy

for a couple of days isn't the flu — the flu is the one that really poleaxes you

and keeps you in bed for days on end.

It also has a habit of killing people. Cheng, an associate professor of

infectious diseases and epidemiology at Monash University, says that the flu and

flu-related pneumonia are known to kill at least several hundred Australians

each year. The real number is likely to run into the thousands. (It's difficult

to make a good estimate because patients can have recovered from the flu virus

before they're admitted to hospital with pneumonia).

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Professor Cheng says that the elderly or those with health problems are most at

risk. ''For the group that have chronic illnesses — if you're diabetic, if

you're obese, if you're pregnant, if you have heart failure or lung disease —

there's no real debate that the benefit is in getting vaccinated,'' he says.

The flu poses less danger to young, healthy people but Professor Cheng

recommends that those who have contact with the sick and elderly get the shot so

they don't pass the virus on. This is particularly important given that only

about 50 to 70 per cent of people vaccinated are completely protected — sick or

elderly people who have had their flu shot can still be vulnerable. (The

American infectious diseases doctor Mark Crislip has a good post about flu

vaccine efficacy here).

When it comes to vaccinating children against the flu, many parents will be

feeling wary after last year, when a brand of flu vaccine made by CSL caused

febrile convulsions in perhaps 20 or so children (out of as many as 270,000

vaccinated). Those CSL brand vaccines are not being used this year.

Professor Cheng says it's entirely up to parents whether or not to vaccinate

children against the flu. He points out, though, that children are more likely

to suffer febrile convulsions from the flu than from the vaccine — 10 to 20 per

cent of children who end up in hospitalis with the flu suffer such convulsions.

And flu can kill children too. In 2007, a particularly bad year, seven

Australian children died from the flu.

In the end, what you do will depend on your assessment of the risk. And

assessing risk is something that humans are notoriously bad at. Most of us

probably don't know anyone who has been killed in a car accident in recent years

but we all still wear seat belts — which is great. And since the flu toll is

probably higher than the road toll, mightn't it make sense to wear a seat belt

against the flu?...

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/blogs/sceptic-science/the-flu-truth-20110504-1e\

7ts.html