Re: THE BIG HEALTH ISSUE OF 2005???

[Guest guest]

Hi folks:

More on this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4215659.stm

Rodney.

--- In , " Rodney " <perspect1111@y...>

wrote:

>

> Hi folks:

>

> This may turn out to be REALLY important in 2005 or 2006. The

> precautions that brought SARS under control (isolation of cases)

are

> unlikely to be adequate ( " would not be effective " ) to control a

bird

> flu epidemic.

>

> In Asia the fatality rate of bird flu in humans has been greater

than

> 70%. It becomes transmissible within two days of infection (unlike

> SARS), well before symptoms appear:

>

> " Future flu epidemic 'controllable' through rapid vaccination

>

> If a flu pandemic similar to the deadly one that spread in 1918

> occurs, it may be possible to keep the pandemic in check through

> vaccinations, a new study suggests. The infamous 1918 pandemic

killed

> up to 40 million people worldwide, but the virus strain was not

> unusually contagious compared with other infectious diseases such

as

> measles, according to a new analysis by researchers at the Harvard

> School of Public Health (HSPH). However, the 1918 flu was quite

> lethal once contracted, believed to be 10 times more lethal than

> other pandemic strains.

>

> Epidemiologists analyzed historical epidemic data in 45 U.S. cities

> and found that the transmissibility of the 1918 strain as measured

by

> the number of people infected by a single case was only about 2 to

4,

> making the strain about as transmissible as the recent SARS

> coronavirus. Because people with influenza can transmit the

infection

> before the appearance of symptoms, strategies for transmission

> reduction, including vaccination, would need to be implemented more

> rapidly than measures for the control of the recent SARS outbreak.

> Isolation methods alone, such as those used for controlling SARS,

> would not be effective.

>

> The analysis, " Transmissibility of 1918 Pandemic Influenza, " by

> Mills, doctoral student in the HSPH Department of

> Epidemiology, and faculty co-authors appears in the Dec. 16 issue

of

> Nature.

>

> World Health Organization officials have warned that we are closer

> now to another pandemic than in any other recent time because of

the

> persistent bird flu epidemic in East Asia that threatens to jump to

> humans.

>

> " Our study suggests that if you could vaccinate a reasonable number

> of people before exposure, a future flu epidemic could be

> controlled, " said Mills. " But flu takes just a couple of days to

> become contagious in a person, unlike the almost weeklong latency

> period we experienced with SARS. Isolation would be only partially

> effective. Rapid vaccination is essential. "

>

> " Before this study, estimates were all over the map on the

> transmissibility of pandemic flu, " said co-author Marc Lipsitch,

> associate professor of epidemiology at HSPH. " Some thought it was

so

> transmissible that vaccines would be unlikely to stop it. This

study

> is optimistic, except we don't have the vaccine. It is now even

more

> important to put resources into the development of vaccine

> technology, manufacture and distribution systems to make possible a

> rapid response to the next outbreak of an entirely new flu strain. "

>

> " This year we found out how bad our system is currently with the

> contamination of flu vaccine at one manufacturer and the consequent

> shortage, " said Lipsitch. " We are lucky this is happening in a year

> when the flu is not so terrible. We need to have our manufacturing

> system functional quickly. " "

>

> Rodney.