Drugs for CLL Leading to 'Crowded Field'...or Not

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Once-Tainted Thalidomide Studied As Cure For Several Ailments

Womack

Thu Dec 28, 7:00 PM ET

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Celgene's is riding high on sales from Revlimid, a follow-up to its

popular Thalomid drug. Revlimid has grown as a treatment for a blood

and bone marrow disease and multiple myeloma, a kind of cancer in

which the body overproduces plasma cells.

Positive Outlook

Optimism is growing that Revlimid and other Celgene drugs could have

uses for a variety of diseases. One of the most promising areas is

Revlimid's potential to treat chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL).

" The big driver of the company is Revlimid, " said Phil Nadeau, an

analyst with Cowen & Co.

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King, an analyst with Rodman & Renshaw, says results in a

recent study of Revlimid on CLL were better than expected.

He said Revlimid offers a more pleasant alternative to other " very

nasty " treatments.

The New Standard?

If more studies can confirm Revlimid's effectiveness, the drug could

emerge as a standard in the treatment of CLL in patients who have

relapsed or who have not responded to other treatments, King says.

The drug hasn't received full FDA approval for CLL, but doctors can

still prescribe it for " off-label " use.

King expects sales from Revlimid to treat CLL to deliver $38 million

in revenue in 2007 after positive reviews at the conference.

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Jim Reddoch, an analyst with Friedman Billings Ramsey, in a research

note predicts $30 million in sales for Revlimid in 2007.

Reddoch says the drug also could become a front-line standard. He

adds that enthusiasm among doctors is growing.

He predicts sales of $190 million for Revlimid by 2010.

" We think the drug will ultimately find a niche in front-line

elderly CLL, taking total U.S. sales closer to $500 (million), "

Reddoch wrote.

McMinn, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, wouldn't give specific

projections for next year. She does say that with enough uses, the

drug could top $500 million in annual sales.

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" When we talk to physicians ... they want to see (the drug) in

larger trials, " he said.

One problem for Celgene is competition. " CLL is a fairly crowded

field, " said , an analyst with W. Baird &

Co. " The Street might have gotten ahead of what's possible. "

says he wants to see more data and more trials on Revlimid

for CLL. But McMinn says the competitive environment is hardly

crowded. " There's been nothing new, " she said.

Celgene hopes for more drugs inspired by thalidomide.

http://news./s/ibd/20061229/bs_ibd_ibd/20061228newamer

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