Mathematical Model Suggests New Approach to Aids

[Guest guest]

SciDev.Net

(London)

NEWS

27 November 2008

Posted to the web 28 November 2008

Scientists have proposed a radical new strategy to halt the HIV/AIDS

epidemic, but its implementation could have human rights

implications, say commentators.

Under the approach, published in The Lancet, people in the worst hit

areas - Sub-Saharan Africa for example - would be tested for HIV

annually and those found positive would be immediately put on

antiretroviral (ARV) drugs.

The move could slash the number of new infections because AIDS drugs

lower the levels of virus in the body, making transmission much less

likely. The authors estimate it could cut infection rates to less

than one percent within 50 years. Deaths could fall to 1 per 1,000

people a year by 2016.

But putting people onto ARVs immediately is controversial, due to the

drugs' toxicity and side effects. Currently people are not put onto

ARVs until they need them, and changing this practice raises the

ethical issue of harming individual patients for public good.

The authors of The Lancet paper say that their strategy is a

mathematical model for discussion, but that it offers a new option

when other avenues, such as vaccines and microbicides, against HIV

are failing.

Such a strategy would require substantial initial investment, but the

lowering of transmission rates would result in far less expenditure

on prevention, care and treatment, they say.

[Guest guest]

SciDev.Net

(London)

NEWS

27 November 2008

Posted to the web 28 November 2008

Scientists have proposed a radical new strategy to halt the HIV/AIDS

epidemic, but its implementation could have human rights

implications, say commentators.

Under the approach, published in The Lancet, people in the worst hit

areas - Sub-Saharan Africa for example - would be tested for HIV

annually and those found positive would be immediately put on

antiretroviral (ARV) drugs.

The move could slash the number of new infections because AIDS drugs

lower the levels of virus in the body, making transmission much less

likely. The authors estimate it could cut infection rates to less

than one percent within 50 years. Deaths could fall to 1 per 1,000

people a year by 2016.

But putting people onto ARVs immediately is controversial, due to the

drugs' toxicity and side effects. Currently people are not put onto

ARVs until they need them, and changing this practice raises the

ethical issue of harming individual patients for public good.

The authors of The Lancet paper say that their strategy is a

mathematical model for discussion, but that it offers a new option

when other avenues, such as vaccines and microbicides, against HIV

are failing.

Such a strategy would require substantial initial investment, but the

lowering of transmission rates would result in far less expenditure

on prevention, care and treatment, they say.