CIA worried over AIDS in India

[Guest guest]

CIA worried over AIDS in India

CHIDANAND RAJGHATTA

TIMES NEWS NETWORK [TUESDAY, OCTOBER 01, 2002 04:09:34 PM ]

WASHINGTON: The CIA has raised a red flag on the spread of the AIDS

epidemic in five countries, including India, China and Russia, saying

it poses a potential security threat both internally and

internationally.

A US National Intelligence Council study conducted for the agency

says by 2010 the growth of AIDS infections in these five countries –-

Nigeria and Ethiopia are the other two -– will far outstrip the AIDS

spread in sub-Saharan Africa and go beyond the current worse-case

scenario.

In sheer numbers, AIDS-infected people in the five countries will

grow to an estimated 50 million to 75 million, from the current

projection of 14 million to 23 million, the 28-page declassified part

of the NIC report said.

The NIC is a panel of experts that performs strategic analysis for

the President, the CIA, the Defense and State departments, the

National Security Council and other government agencies. The leader

of the study, Dr Gordon, is a CIA official who oversees trans-

national issues for the Agency.

In a briefing at the Agency headquarters on Monday that only some

reporters were informed about, Dr Gordon said the AIDS epidemic could

harm the economic, social, political and military structure in each

of the five countries.

However, the report suggested that because the disease is relatively

new to India and China, and because there is a lag of many years

between infection and death in most individuals, those two

nations " can manage the impact of the disease through the end of the

decade. "

The epidemic " by itself will not pose a fundamental threat through

2010 to the rise of China and India as major regional players, " the

report said.

That was the only silver lining in an otherwise gloomy prognosis that

spoke of rising tensions in these countries over growing healthcare

costs, impact on military manpower, shortage of productive people and

spending priorities.

The forecast is scariest for Russia, where a shrinking population and

workforce will compound the boom in AIDS cases, possibly leading to a

half per cent drop in the annual economic growth and a diminished

military.

Nigeria and Ethiopia will be hardest hit with key government and

business elites decimated and foreign investment and economic growth

badly affected.

The council said that in arriving at the estimates, it gathered data

from governments and non-governmental organisations in the US and

outside, but it did not collaborate with the governments of the five

countries.

However, the report, titled The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS: Nigeria,

Ethiopia, Russia, India and China, was given to the governments of

each of the five countries about two months ago, Dr Gordon told

reporters.

_________________________