HIV estimate and HIV burden in India

[Guest guest]

[The author of this posting wish to remain anonymous due to obvious

reasons. Moderator]

HIV estimate and HIV burden in India

NACO has done a commendable job in doing expanded sentinel

surveillance. But estimation of the HIV burden of India is another

matter altogether.

NACO has published the method of calculation in their website. The

algorithm used makes numerous assumptions, which cannot be

substantiated. As a person who has been working closely with the

estimates committee for some time I know that nobody in India has any

idea of the true burden of HIV infections in the country.

We must have facts and values for the assumptions made. There is

absolutely no justification for saying the rural prevalence of HIV is

one eighth of urban HIV and continues like this forever. This is not

substantiated by data available with NACO. This is perhaps the most

critical assumption of all.

We in India are comfortable with assumptions and do not seek to

collect data to uncover the true state of affairs. It is possible to

replace every assumed value with the real value if further studies

are done.

We have no prevalence data on STIs or the true ratio of HIV infected

men to women. These are not impossible to gather. NACO must feel that

these things are necessary.

The HIV prevalence has been fairly steady for the last 3 years and

NACO is claiming that the epidemic is coming down without any solid

fact to back up their statement.

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[Guest guest]

[Regarding the HIV estimate and HIV burden in India] Question to ask, it seems

to me is do we have the 'solid' facts (and the method to capture that) for

stating that it is increasing accross geographical and in geographical

locations.

Something like a widow/orphan index/rate that is skewed above normality for that

community in that location.....

" Anand Chaudhuri "

E-mail:<anand.chaudhuri@...>

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