posting requesting information from NACO

[Guest guest]

Dear Mr Prasada Rao

I am reposting this querry as I feel compelled to ask you directly the

validity of the latest figures of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence

released by NACO and posted on its WEB site. The figures in question are

1998 3.5 million

1999 3.7 million

2000 3.86 million

2001 3.97 million

And based on these the claimed incidence rates are (deaths due to

HIV/AIDS have presumably not been included in these estimates)

1999-1998 0.20 million

2000-1999 0.16 million

2001-2000 0.11 million

If these numbers truely reflect the status of HIV/AIDS in India, then

we all have every reason to rejoice. The HIV/AIDS pandemic in India

has been brought under control and the incidence rate per capita is

already lower than that in the USA. (110,000 new infections in a

population of 1.03billion and 4 million total cases versus 40,000 new

infections in the USA in a population of 289 million and about 1

million HIV+ persons). This is a truely remarkable achievement. At

these levels, the focus of all International agencies should rightly

shift from India to other nations that are struggling with this

scourge.

If the data is false, then its promotion would represent the greatest

disservice to all Indians and in fact to the global fight against HIV.

It would be an example of deliberate misinformation, and would further

undermine the credibility of the government and NACO. It would also

be a missed opportunity. History will judge this period as a possible

critical turning point, and the actions of the government a deliberate

wrong turn. It is very hard for me to imagine that the country will

maintain the necessary momentum in the fight against HIV/AIDS if it

is said to be controlled already at such low rates.

Personally, I do not know how to interpret the data. Whereas the NACO

statistics show a decrease in incidence rates in the last three years,

every testing center I am familiar with is reporting an increase in

new cases of HIV/AIDS every year for the last five years. This

observation is not compatible with the NACO figures. I am sure there are

very well studied explanations and would be grateful for your insight.

I sincerely request you to clarify and validate the data. This is too

important an issue for India to be ignored.

Best regards

rajan Gupta

rajan@...

http://t8web.lanl.gov/people/rajan/AIDS-india/

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