AIDS slows world population growth

[Guest guest]

AIDS and fewer fertile women slow world population growth rates

By Gumbel in Los Angeles

24 March 2004

The world population is likely to increase to more than 9 billion by

the middle of this century, roughly 50 per cent higher than it is

now, according to a new study by the US Census Bureau.

But the exponential growth of the past 15 years is expected to slow

significantly as some populations age and others are ravaged by Aids.

The Bureau calculated that the world is currently adding population

at a rate of 1.2 per cent per year. That means 74 million new human

beings every 12 months, and the equivalent of the population of

western Europe every five years.

There has, however, been a reversal in the rate of growth since

population hit in the 6 billion mark in June 1999. It took just 12

years for the population to jump from 5 to 6 billion - the fastest

billion ever. However, it is likely to take 14 years to reach 7

billion, a further 15 years to get to 8 billion, and another 20 years

to reach 9 billion. The overall growth rate is expected to slow to

0.42 per cent by 2050.

Already, 88 countries have fertility rates below the point where

current population levels will be maintained. By 2050, that is

projected to be true for the whole world. The primary reason for this

slowing, the Census Bureau said, is that fertile women of child-

bearing age are a shrinking proportion of the overall population.

Largely, this is the result of people living longer. In 2002, people

over the age of 65 made up 7 per cent of the world's population. By

2050, that figure is expected to leap to 17 per cent.

Among the many unknowns in these calculations, however, are two

factors. One is the availability of contraceptives, and the other is

the continuing devastating effect of Aids.

Some 20 million people are believed to have died of Aids so far, and

another 40 million are believed to be infected with the HIV virus.

Barring a major medical breakthrough, most of these people are

expected to die in the next 10 years or so. In parts of Africa, this

could bring the average life expectancy down as low as 30 by 2010, a

rate not seen in the past 100 years.

There is, however, some hope for the future, the Bureau said. " If

prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes are

dramatically scaled up, " it wrote, then the course of future child

mortality rates can be changed.

" Moreover, several countries, including Thailand, Senegal, and

Uganda, have managed to stem the tide of the pandemic. These examples

give hope that the Aids pandemic can be successfully curtailed. " On

the issue of birth control, the Bureau reported: " Though

contraceptive prevalence has risen dramatically since the 1960s,

there are at least 100 million women in the world's developing

countries today who would like to space or limit their pregnancies

but are not using contraception.

" These women are found in greater numbers in Asia than in other world

regions but make up higher proportions of the populations of Sub-

Saharan African countries than of countries in other parts of the

world. " The Bureau's figures were based on purely statistical

projections and did not factor in other imponderables such as the

possibility of major wars or the likely impact of greatly increased

populations on food supply and other environmental considerations.

They are, however, broadly in line with other population estimates by

the United Nations and from other authoritative sources. According to

the Popular Reference Bureau, a private research group, birth rates

are currently higher in India than they are in China. At current

rates, India's population is likely to rise more than 50 per cent to

1.6 billion by 2050, which would cause it to overtake China as the

world's most populous country. Those trends are, however, subject to

change.

The Census Bureau's own projections have been modified slightly as

population trends have shifted. In 1998, the Bureau forecast a world

population of 9.3 billion by 2050. Now its best estimate is 9.1

billion.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=504358