Guest guest Posted July 2, 2008 Report Share Posted July 2, 2008 RESEARCH I DID MANY YEARS AGO I'm trying to analyze data that WHO puts out... here is some on Measles in a town in Peru ***** During the outbreak, 150 of the 553 Espindola residents developed clinical cases of measles. Adults accounted for 44.0% of cases, and were frequently identified as primary cases. The attack rate among all susceptible people was 45.5% and was highest (61.2%) for the 1620 year age group. Among adults, significant risk factors for developing measles included being aged 1620 years (relative risk [RR]=3.06, 95% CI = 2.08, 4.49) and being male (RR= 1.73, 95% CI = 1.11, 2.71). Among serologically confirmed cases, 60.7% developed diarrhoea and 32.1% pneumonia. The overall case-fatality rate was 3.3%, but reached 19.1% in the 023-month age group. Failure to reach children through either routine immunization or national campaigns made this community vulnerable to the severe and extensive impact of measles virus importation. **** Now 150 residents got measles 44% adults = 66 people by my calculation Overall case fatality 3.3% = 4.95 people by my calculation Then they say 19.1% case fatality in 0-23 month age group They never told then number of cases in that group Non adults must have been 84 - but how many of those were 0-24 months Approximately 5 people died in total - they leave out essential information It had to be under 5 for sure This is why I don't believe their information as it is never filled with facts that you can work with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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