Data error in NACO statistics

[Guest guest]

Dear all,

I need some clarifications please.

I have got the following information from NACO website that gives us about the

estimates of HIV infection, in 2003 and 2004.

If I understood the figures correctly, it shows that the estimated infection

among rural male has gone down by more than a lakh; in 2003, there were

estimated 19.22 lakh rural male infections and for 2004, the corresponding

figure is 18.03 lakh.

That is to say, there are fewer males infected in rural India in 2004 compared

to 2003. This reversal can only happen if mortality rate is higher than the

incidence rate during this period. If this is true then it is an extremely

sobering statistics and may have implications about the ART programme of the

government.

At the same time, the data shows that female infections have

increase by 1.15 lakhs.

My own sense is that there is some mistake and this cannot be true.

If it is in fact a data error, then it also indicates the danger of using these

estimates for the kind of debate that has been going on in India about estimates

Any clarification is welcome.

Mayur Trivedi

Consultant

Health Policy Research Unit

Institute of Economic Growth

North campus - Delhi University Enclave

Delhi -110007

Phone: 011-27667424 ext:206

E-mail: <mayur@...>