AP: 15 lakh and counting, ticking AIDS bomb explodes in state

[Guest guest]

ANDHRA PRADESH June 14, 2005

15 lakh and counting, ticking AIDS bomb explodes in state

Tuesday June 14 2005 00:00 IST

HYDERABAD: India's ticking AIDS bomb has exploded. In Andhra

Pradesh, a figure of 15,14,550 cases has been recorded by the Andhra

Pradesh State Aids Control Society (APSACS) for the year 2004.

These numbers were obtained by juxtaposing National Aids Control

Organisation (NACO) figures for sentinel surveillance with the

methodology used by biostatisticans for analysis.

This is a runaway growth of nearly 3.5 lakh between 2003 and 2004.

These figures were arrived at after the statistical anomalies in

Srikakulam and Warangal were corrected (the uncorrected figure of

2.25 percent was used by NACO).

Nationally, a bigger disaster is unfolding as the numbers fail to

reflect the reality. While Andhra Pradesh has 23 hospitals from

where figures were collated, Bihar has just 7 sites, West Bengal 9

and Uttar Pradesh 17 sites where pregnant women are tested for the

virus at government clinics under NACO supervision over a period of

three months.

So, while the numbers from Andhra Pradesh might appear shocking, the

reality across the nation might be hidden but more devastating.

Statistician M Vishnuvardhan Rao of National Institute of Nutrition,

who helped analyse the figures, said the 2 percent prevalence of HIV

among the ANC attendees (which is taken as proxy for the general

population) is neither an underestimate nor an overestimate but is a

reliable estimate as the whole State is covered.

When asked about the high variation (Rangareddy dist recorded .5 pc

prevalence while Prakasam topped 4 pc), Dr Rao said that the

variation will be high because of the vastness of the State.

" Yes, we have a real problem on our hands, " says K Damayanti the

APSACS project director at her Koti office with notices about APSACS

having no role in funding sexual health projects or releasing

advertisements are displayed prominently.

" We are talking about ANC attendees most of whom are innocent

spouses of philandering husbands. We have to factor in the number of

men who would be carrying and spreading the disease to other women, "

says Damayanti.

These figures run counter to what Union Health Minister A Ramadoss

reeled out a few days back for Bill Clinton's sake stating that

India had 5.1 million AIDS cases which showed a growth of 29,000

cases, a drop of 95 percent in new AIDS cases. If the figures from

Andhra Pradesh and the national methodology are factored in, the

worldwide doubts about India outstripping South Africa in sheer

number of AIDS cases would be true.

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