Long-term overweight and obesity risk

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Hi All,

Long-term overweight and obesity risk was examined in a prospective study, which

is

pdf-available. It appears to be pessimistic.

Estimated Risks for Developing Obesity in the Framingham Heart Study

Ramachandran S. Vasan, J. Pencina, Mark Cobain, S. Freiberg, and

Ralph B. D'Agostino

Ann Intern Med. 2005 Oct 4;143(7): Editor comment

The authors estimated the short-term, long-term, and lifetime risks of 4117

Framingham participants becoming overweight or obese. People seldom progressed

from

normal weight to obesity in 4 years. In 4 years, the transition from overweight

to

obese occurred in 12% of men and 16% to 23% of women, depending on age. The

30-year

risk for a body mass index of 35 kg/m2 or greater was 11% to 13%. The risk for a

body mass index of 40 kg/m2 or greater was 2.5% to 5%.

Estimated Risks for Developing Obesity in the Framingham Heart Study

Ramachandran S. Vasan, J. Pencina, Mark Cobain, S. Freiberg, and

Ralph B. D'Agostino

Ann Intern Med. 2005 Oct 4;143(7):473-480

Background: The short- and long-term risks for developing overweight or obesity

are

unknown.

Objectives: To estimate the short-term, long-term, and lifetime risks for

developing

overweight or obesity in adults in the community.

Design: Prospective cohort study, 1971 to 2001.

Setting: Community-based study, Framingham, Massachusetts.

Participants: 4117 white participants (51.9% women) from the Framingham Heart

Study.

Measurements: The short-term (4 years) and long-term (10 to 30 years) risks for

ever

becoming overweight or more (body mass index [bMI] 25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI 30

kg/m2) for men and women at 30, 40, and 50 years of age with a normal BMI

(between

18.5 kg/m2 and 25.0 kg/m2).

Results: The observed 4-year rates of developing overweight varied from 14% to

19%

in women and 26% to 30% in men. Four-year rates of developing obesity ranged

from 5%

to 7% in women and 7% to 9% in men. The long-term (30-year) risk estimates were

similar for the 2 sexes generally; varied somewhat with age (in men, being lower

for

those 50 years of age); and, overall, exceeded 1 in 2 persons for overweight or

more, 1 in 4 individuals for obesity, and 1 in 10 people for stage II obesity

(BMI

35 kg/m2) across different age groups. The 30-year estimates correspond to the

residual lifetime risk for overweight or more or obesity for participants 50

years

of age.

Limitations: These findings may not be generalizable to other races or

ethnicities.

Conclusions: The long-term risks for overweight or more or obesity exceeded 50%

and

25%, respectively, indicating a large public health burden. These estimates

suggest

that the future burden of obesity-associated diseases may be substantial.

Al Pater, PhD; email: old542000@...

__________________________________

- PC Magazine Editors' Choice 2005

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