predictions

[Guest guest]

Some of you may remember this guy Kurzweil as being " way out there " a la Aubrey DeGray.........

Ray Kurzweil

By far the most interesting and thought provoking presentation was by technology visionary, author, and inventor Ray Kurzweil. Timed with the launch of his new book, " The Singularity is Near, " Kurzweil's historical charts and statistic-filled presentation aimed to prove that " change is rapidly accelerating " in the world of technology. Specifically, Kurzweil believes that we are on the cusp of a massive period of exponential advancements in bio- and nano-technologies (he said the genomic code, which is only a few years old, is the " object code " of this revolution). This wave should lead to a massive increase in life expectancy rates.

Anchored by statistics that point to a " doubling in the paradigm shift rate " every decade, Kurzweil sees a future in which by 2010 tiny electronics are embedded in the body, images are directly written to our retinas, we would live in virtual reality, and language translation becomes seamless. He thinks that heart disease and cancer can be conquered within the next 10-15 years, and points to hundreds of drugs based on RNA interference approaches that are currently in testing. For example, Pfizer (PFE) is currently betting $1 billion on a drug that would block the destruction of " good cholesterol " that typically takes place in phase 4 of heart disease. By 2029, when a single $1000 computer should have 1000x the power of the human brain, Kurzweil believes that we'll have successfully reverse engineered the human brain.

Pointing to the 60% plus increase in life expectancy rates over the last century (from 48 to 78 years), Kurzweil believes that accelerating rates of bio- and nano-technology will lead to a massive increase in life expectancy in the coming decades. Towards this end, his last book, " Fantastic Voyage, " creates a diet and exercise plan designed to allow people today to live long enough until new technologies are developed in order to enable them to " live forever. "

Boiling everything down, Kurzweil basically points to the historical rates of accelerating change in other aspects of technology as proof that the same thing can and will happen in healthcare. ly, his argument is exciting, even if it is out-of-this-world at times. For proof, just look at how far computing and related technologies have advanced in such a short period of time, not to mention the accelerating take-up rates of new technologies like cell phones and the Internet. If the same type of " standing on the shoulders of giants " type of accelerating innovation happens in bio- and nano-technology, the future could indeed be very exciting for all of us.