Long life long-term?

[Guest guest]

Hi All,

What will be the future of population life expectancy increases.

The not pdf-available below paper presents some discussion.

Mackenbach JP.

[On Hendrikje van Andel-Schipper and other remarkable developments in the life

expectancy of the Dutch population]

Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2005 Nov 12;149(46):2550-3. Dutch.

PMID: 16320664

The Netherlands was home to the oldest living individual in the world, Mrs.

Hendrikje van Andel-Schipper, until she died at the age of 115 years on 30

August

2005. She illustrated the remarkable increase in centenarians in many European

countries resulting from substantial increases in life expectancy at birth. In

2004,

life expectancy at birth in the Netherlands reached a record high of 76.9 years

for

men and 81.4 years for women. These developments raise important questions on

the

potential for further increases in life expectancy. Based on an extrapolation of

recent trends in cause-specific mortality, Netherlands Statistics predicts an

increase in life expectancy of 2 to 3 years in the half-century between 2004 and

2050. Experts are deeply divided about the prospects for further increases in

life

expectancy. Some have argued that such estimates are too optimistic because, for

example, the obesity epidemic might even reduce average life expectancy in the

future. Others consider these estimates too pessimistic because, for example,

previous estimates of limits to life expectancy have almost always been

surpassed.

Even relatively modest increases in life expectancy at birth, however, will pose

important challenges to health care, social services and pension arrangements.

Al Pater, PhD; email: old542000@...

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