Indian Reduction in HIV Figures No Miracle

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Indian Reduction in HIV Figures No Miracle

By NEELESH MISRA, Associated Press Writer

Tue May 31, 6:21 AM ET

NEW DELHI - India, home to the second largest number of people infected with the

HIV virus, dropped a bombshell last week when it declared that new cases fell by

95 percent in just a year. As it turns out, it was not a miracle — just

mathematics.

The National AIDS Control Organization announced 28,000 new cases of HIV

infections in 2004 compared with 520,000 in 2003.

Those figures whipped up a controversy, with many health workers saying the news

was too good to be true. But others — including the World Health

Organization and anti-AIDS officials from the United Nations — said they

backed the official methodology. And, they say, it does appear that HIV cases

are stabilizing.

" The process and the results are based on sound methodology, " said Dr. Salim

Habayeb, an AIDS expert at the World Health Organization's South East Asian

office in New Delhi. " We support the numbers the

Indian government has released. "

Independent statisticians noted the confusion sprang from a change in

methodology two years ago for collecting data.

India uses sample collection centers, called " sentinel sites, " to monitor HIV

infection. The centers earlier focused only on high-risk areas, but two years

ago were expanded to cover low-risk areas as well to give a slightly higher, and

more accurate, figure.

That caused the increase from 2002 to 2003 to appear exaggerated — and last

year's increase to look tiny in comparison, said Denis Broun, the India

coordinator for the United Nations AIDS agency.

The Indian government, however, has done almost nothing to explain the change in

methodologies, activists say, infuriating AIDS workers who heard nothing except

a claim that government AIDS policies

had caused a gargantuan drop in infections.

" We feel there's something drastically wrong with the figures given. We have

absolutely no idea how they have come to these figures, " Fernandes of

Sahara, a New Delhi-based group working with HIV-positive women, said over the

weekend. " At the grassroots

level, we find things are much different. Everyday we are getting to know of new

cases. "

India has 5.13 million HIV-positive people, the second highest after South

Africa. The overall number is considered correct, Broun said.

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Greetings. HDP