Bulgaria Claims Rose Crisis - Climate Change

[Guest guest]

Howdy Anya,

First .. lemme say that Climate Change is likely due to an increase in

Hot Air .. much of it originating from within the Beltway around

Washington, D.C. ;-)

> Don't know if I follow the climate change theory, so I'm hoping Butch

> can post after he reads this. I am intrigued by the Japanese rose

> capsules that make you smell like roses one week after you eat them.

> Very relevant to a current thread on Japanese customers for soap on

> the NP group.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/lifestyle-bulgaria-roses.html?_r=1 & oref=slo\

gin

Lemme make a few line by line comments .. but first, as I told you off

line a while back .. the previous article you referred to the group ..

on what a great crop the Bulgarians expected this year .. was PR .. PR

is what has helped to keep an ailing Bulgarian Rose industry in the

Black. They are in a bitta trouble and getting out is not going to be

as easy as was the getting in. I've been on the phone with the

Turkish folks on and off for weeks .. they just completed a trip to

Europe to negotiate/establish prices and deal with pre-production

agreements .. and there were Bulgarian producers there too. The

Turks and Bulgarians talk to each other a lot .. they do not see

themselves as being competitors fighting for a market .. they are both

producing less than the demand.

> With roughly 2 tonnes of annual production, Bulgaria is the world's

> second largest producer of rose oil after Turkey.

Bulgaria produced roughly 1,200 kilos this year .. Turkey produced

around 1,900 .. so only the second part of the above is true.

> But the villagers' race against the sun to pick the moist, pink

> flowers that produce the oil is becoming more urgent as they say

> climate change is making the valley hotter and drier.

This is supposition .. Turkey and Bulgaria had a bad year last year ..

roughly 35% less than normal .. and they produced roughly 20% less

than normal this year .. but nobody can say that the decrease in

production is due to Climate Change .. my Turkish folks say that the

up and down years have been a norm since the Oldest Old Men can remember.

It is a fact that both countries had a nice crop of Roses this year ..

but the yield of oil was low .. thus, it took more than 4 metric tons

to produce a kilo of Rose Otto. Reason it was low .. as they state

above .. it was extremely hot and the Roses were, in fact, stressed.

Because they are affected by energy costs just as we are .. and they

have to deal with inflation (worker's wages) coupled with the need

this year to use more product to produce the Rose Otto .. the 2008

established prices are higher than last year .. but they are not out

of line .. there is no gouging. Will these prices cause a lotta folks

to go to lower cost Rose oil .. like those produced in China, Russia

and such? Absolutely! But some folks will not have the luxury to do

that and the Turks and Bulgarians are certain to sell all they produce

in any case.

> Bulgaria's rose oil, with its strong aroma that sweetens perfume

from > brands such as Chanel and Dior, is considered by many in the

> cosmetics industry to be the best in the world and costs as much as

> 6,000 euros ($9,413) a kg.

Not really true .. a bit of Bulgarian PR at work again .. but I give

them credit for doing a good job. This PR does not allow them to

sell more Rose Otto .. it allows them to get higher prices from those

who are not in the know .. and there are many outfits in that category

... though few are European. As I have preached for 15 years, there is

absolutely not difference in the quality of a masterfully produced

Turkish and Bulgarian Rose Otto .. extracted from Damask Roses (

damascena) .. when produced by an experienced master distiller. The

major difference is that one must be a bit more careful when

purchasing a Bulgarian product because the Mafia is alive and well in

Bulgaria .. they are ex-KGB who were left jobless after the USSR

dissolved and the Russian Federation cut their ranks .. they then went

into other shady enterprises. Caveat Emptor is a necessity when

dealing with the Bulgarians .. or the Russians for that matter.

Will they get 6,000 Euros this year .. some will get it but the norm

for Bulgarian this year " should be " a bit less .. around 5,800 Euros

... current exchange makes that $9,226 .. the norm for Turkish this

year should be around 5,700 Euros.. or $9,067 .. these are FOB prices

for bulk buys .. they are not what y'all should expect to pay from

most dealers for a single kilo .. though I will (as usual) be able to

make some offers that can't be refused. ;-) The price difference

is NOT due to quality .. its due to volume available for sale .. plus

agreements with large buyers .. plus the fact that prices for the

Turkish product are not really Free Market prices .. they are

established by the Board of Directors of an Association that is

semioffical in that it is controlled by a political party of the

Turkish gummit. One can now .. as in the past .. count on the

Bulgarians waiting for the Turks to fix their prices . . then

establishing their prices a tad higher.

> *** with 4 tonnes of petals yielding 1 kg of precious oil. In the

> 1980s and 90s, when the climate was cooler and the roses more moist,

> the same yield needed closer to 2.8 tonnes, said Nedkov.

Nonsense! There has never been a kilo of Rose Otto produced from

even 3 metric tons of blossoms.

> (Antal) Adam said: his company encourages farmers in Afghanistan to

> plant roses instead of poppies, buying up the harvest to curb heroin

> trade.

I can't find anything in English on Antel Adam but I am not inclined

to believe the above .. because there is no Afghan crop to buy up and

there are no farmers in Afghanistan who have turned from Opium Poppies

to Roses .. none. I will check this Antel Adam out and get back

with y'all but for now I conclude that it is commercial spin.

One more thing .. its mostly in French that Heroin in produced .. in

mobile factories around Marsailles .. the Afghans produce only raw

Opium .. the gum.

I'm still working with Chayes .. we are going to do a project

this Fall .. along with two Turkish friends (one a direct fire village

producer and one a commercial producer) I will be in Kabul in

November. We are consolidating plans for what we will produce in

Turkey .. ship to Afghanistan and install there. Financing will be

in part from the Afghan gummit but the lion's share will be from the

Canadians. I'll update y'all on the project when I have more firm

data .. that is, after completing the formal proposal. Anya has also

been in contact with and has offered assistance in a number of

areas.

> " We blend oil from different countries. Like whisky, " said Adam. " The

> stuff from Afghanistan is very promising. "

Promising as in .. its gonna be nice when they are able to export a

gram or two. That is how much Rose Otto 's group is getting now

from each distillation .. the problem is they have the wrong kind of

equipment. They are getting some fine Hydrosol and that is what they

are using for their products .. but its not an efficient use of

resources. My plans will allow them to produce 3 or 4, maybe 5 kilos

the first year .. they will be restricted only by availability of Rose

blossoms and the road network plus, of course .. security.

Conditions in Afghanistan are now more critical than they are in Iraq

... though you'll not see it in the news because the media does not

like reporting good news .. the beginning of the end of organized

operations by Al-qaeda in Iraq has begun while conditions in

Afghanistan have worsened. Pakistan is in one way or another a

player in the Afghan arena.

> *** farmers are also struggling with soaring energy costs and labor

> migration.

True .. its hard to keep a feller down on the farm after he's seen

Western Europe. Bulgaria is now a full fledged member of the EU and

they have new opportunities for employment.

> There are not enough pickers, workers prefer to work in Germany and

> France. And small farmers can get their family to pick roses, " said

> Lissicharov.

True .. but I think they left out the word " NOT " between " can " and

" get " . Labor problems will probably persist .. population wise the

birth rate in Bulgaria is in a minus mode right now. The Bulgarian

story is not all bad .. they are doing quite well now when compared to

their days under the USSR .. but in the below link you will find this

sentence .. " At the same time, a rapidly ageing and declining

population limits the potential for further employment growth. " UNQUOTE

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/een/005/article_4326_en.htm

> For now, the Rose Valley shows a softer side to the country whose

> corruption and organized crime will be evaluated in a European

> Commission monitoring report later this month.

This report will be just another bureaucratic exercise .. the

Bulgarians will clean up their act in time but not any time soon.

> " There are at least two different societies in Bulgaria. The one

that > will be the subject of this report and the one here, " said Toon

> Streppel, a European Parliament official in Bulgaria.

Though many Americans (especially the Conspiracy Theorists) believe

this statement could also apply to the U.S.A., its only because they

have not lived (or more importantly .. had to do business) in a Third

World or Emerging Market country. Comparing them to the U.S.A. is

like comparing rapists to traffic offenders. I turned 66 a few days

ago .. if I start counting at the age I graduated from HS, then MORE

than half my adult life has been spent in such countries .. I got used

to their way of doing business .. didn't have to like it .. just had

to accept it.

> Anya's Garden http://AnyasGarden.com - perfumes, aromatics, classes,

> consultation

> Natural Perfumers Guild + blog with daily updates

>

> 1500+ member Natural Perfumery group - =

> /

Y'all keep smiling. :-)

Butch .. http://www.AV-AT.com

PS: During the last sale I had .. on Turkish Rose Absolute .. I told

folks that those who purchased would not be sorry. Fact is they were

all satisfied with the quality .. and the price. But they're gonna

be even more satisfied with the price when they see the prices for the

2008 crop.