Mortality, Lifespan, Etc.

[Guest guest]

Hi folks:

Here are some additional thoughts about potential human lifespan

extension in response to CR.

The data in the table below may provide another way of looking at

this. It shows the percentage of humans who die in the twelve months

immediately following their 30th, 40th, 50th, etc. birthdays:

B'day --- %

------- -- ------

30th --- 0.1%

40th --- 0.3

50th --- 0.6

60th --- 1.2

70th --- 2.9

80th --- 7.2

90th -- 18.9

100th - 38.2

Fruit flies see their mortality drop 80% when put on 40% CR for the

first time at 'age 60'. Suppose someone aged 60, who has eaten 'ad

lib' until then, starts to restrict calories by 40%. If the fruit

fly analogy applies (and it very probably does, imo) then a 60-year

old human would see their mortality risk drop from the standard 1.2%

(as in the table above) to 0.24%.

Note that this new 0.24% number is somewhat less than the mortality

rate of a 'fully fed' 40-year old. In other words, by going on CR,

their age, as measured in terms of mortality risk, is reduced by

somewhat more than 20 years. And therefore most likely their

lifespan is increased by ~20 years also.

Of course we will not have definitive data about this until sixty

years after someone recruits a sizeable number of fifty year old

humans and compares the survival curves of those on CR with those

fully fed over the ensuing 60 years. Some of us may not still be

here by then. So we have to make do with, and derive the best

understanding we can from, the data we have. This is another effort

in that direction.

Rodney.

[Guest guest]

Hi folks:

.............. and I probably should have added that, having attained

the mortality rate of a 40-year old, the individual then *might* also

thereafter age more slowly than would an ad lib 40-year old. That

is, his mortality rate might increase more slowly than the 40-year

old's. If so, then the benefit would increase beyond twenty years,

and correspond more closely to the percentage life extension seen in

the animal studies, including, it seems, those in monkeys.

Rodney.

--- In , " Rodney " <perspect1111@...>

wrote:

>

> Hi folks:

>

> Here are some additional thoughts about potential human lifespan

> extension in response to CR.

>

> The data in the table below may provide another way of looking at

> this. It shows the percentage of humans who die in the twelve

months

> immediately following their 30th, 40th, 50th, etc. birthdays:

>

> B'day --- %

> ------- -- ------

> 30th --- 0.1%

> 40th --- 0.3

> 50th --- 0.6

> 60th --- 1.2

> 70th --- 2.9

> 80th --- 7.2

> 90th -- 18.9

> 100th - 38.2

>

> Fruit flies see their mortality drop 80% when put on 40% CR for the

> first time at 'age 60'. Suppose someone aged 60, who has eaten 'ad

> lib' until then, starts to restrict calories by 40%. If the fruit

> fly analogy applies (and it very probably does, imo) then a 60-year

> old human would see their mortality risk drop from the standard

1.2%

> (as in the table above) to 0.24%.

>

> Note that this new 0.24% number is somewhat less than the mortality

> rate of a 'fully fed' 40-year old. In other words, by going on CR,

> their age, as measured in terms of mortality risk, is reduced by

> somewhat more than 20 years. And therefore most likely their

> lifespan is increased by ~20 years also.

>

> Of course we will not have definitive data about this until sixty

> years after someone recruits a sizeable number of fifty year old

> humans and compares the survival curves of those on CR with those

> fully fed over the ensuing 60 years. Some of us may not still be

> here by then. So we have to make do with, and derive the best

> understanding we can from, the data we have. This is another

effort

> in that direction.

>

> Rodney.

>