Stemming the Obesity Epidemic: A Tantalizing Prospect

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Public Health and Public Policy

Stemming the Obesity Epidemic: A Tantalizing

Prospect

VEERMAN, J. LENNERT, JAN J. BARENDREGT, ED F.

VAN BEECK, JACOB C. SEIDELL, AND JOHAN P.

MACKENBACH.

Obesity. 2007;15:2365–2370.

Objective: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but

there are no good methods to assess the future course

of the

epidemic and the potential influence of interventions.

We

explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity

epidemic in the U.S.

Research Methods and Procedures: We modeled the pop-

ulation distribution of BMI as a log-normal curve of

which

the mean shifts upward with time due to a positive

popula-

tion energy balance. Interventions that decrease food

intake

or increase physical activity result in more favorable

trends

in BMI.

Results: The recently observed trend in average BMI

im-

plies that the average U.S. adult over-consumes by 10

kcal/d. If this trend continues unaltered, obesity

prevalence

will exceed 40% for men and 45% for women in 2015. To

stop the epidemic, it suffices to decrease caloric

consump-

tion by 10 kcal or walk an extra 2 to 3 minutes per

day,

on average.

Discussion: This leads to a paradox: little behavior

change

seems sufficient to halt the epidemic, but in practice

this

proves hard to achieve. The obesogenic environment is

the

likely culprit. Individuals trying to maintain a

healthy

weight need to be supported by environments that

stimulate

physical activity and do not encourage

over-consumption.

Research should show what measures are effective.

Jeff Novick, MS, RD, LD/N

Join The Revolution!

www.JeffNovick.com