U.N.: Bomb Iran and face Mideast 'ball of fire'

[Guest guest]

Again, there is no easy solution here. Iran knows that the US is overstretched and bogged down in Iraq. It knows that Western Europe is a toothless tiger who military is seen more as a means of reducing unemployment numbers than actual defense (with a few exceptions). They know the UN is a joke. They also think the Russian have their backs, which they may for the time being.

The other thing is that if an attack takes place, the US Navy and transport fleets in the Persian Gulf will be sitting ducks. Iran could close access to the Gulf and really hurt the Navy as well. They would be willing to take the losses in men and material to sink a couple of Navy ships because Iran knows that if they got a carrier or a cruiser or two, even just badly damaged them, that there would be a huge outcry to pull out of the Gulf.

If that happened, the ground troops would be left in a very bad situation. They would have to either pull out through Turkey, if they let us, or through Jordan and Israel. Most of their supplies would be cut off because the Gulf would be closed. That would be a complicated and bad scene. I really don't think the US has the tactics or the will to fight to force the Gulf open again or to run convoys through it anymore.

If this happened, the US would lose a tremendous amount of respect, yes there is still plenty to lose, because we would be seen as a hollow force, a great power on paper, but one with a glass jaw, only one hit knocks it out. We would have a hard time pulling out and the Middle East probably would erupt.

Now, many Europeans would probably love to see that happen. They would love it until they figured out that the US could pull back its Navy and blockade its shores and airspace and put troops on the border and end up fairly secure, but Europe doesn't have it so easy. Sure oil would be a problem for us, but if this happened, there would be such an outcry that Congress would be forced to allow drilling and other projects more effective than ethanol. We could do these things in a few years, much less than the 10 to 15 years predicted if we cut the red tape and got government out of the way. If someone areas balk about drilling, fine: no drilling off their coast, but they get a surtax on the gasoline in their area to make up for it.

Anyway, this is a very complicated situation. It is a great shame that we made the mistake of going into Iraq and taking away the only regional check against Iran's power.

In a message dated 6/21/2008 11:42:13 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time, no_reply writes:

U.N.: Bomb Iran and face Mideast 'ball of fire'Nuclear agency chief's warning follows Israeli military exercisesGas prices getting you down? Search AOL Autos for fuel-efficient used cars.

[Guest guest]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25298744

U.N.: Bomb Iran and face Mideast 'ball of fire'

Nuclear agency chief's warning follows Israeli military exercises

updated 33 minutes ago

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - The U.N. nuclear watchdog chief warned

in comments aired Saturday that any military strike on Iran could turn

the Mideast to a " ball of fire " and lead Iran to a more-aggressive

stance on its controversial nuclear program.

The comments by Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic

Energy Agency, came in an interview with an Arab television station

aired Saturday, a day after U.S. officials said they believed recent

large Israeli military exercises may have been meant to show Israel's

ability to hit Iran's nuclear sites.

" In my opinion, a military strike will be the worst... it will turn

the Middle East to a ball of fire, " ElBaradei said on Al-Arabiya

television. It also could prompt Iran to press even harder to seek a

nuclear program, and force him to resign, he said.

Iran on Saturday also criticized the Israeli exercises. The official

IRNA news agency quoted a government spokesman as saying that the

exercises demonstrate Israel " jeopardizes global peace and security. "

Israel sent warplanes and other aircraft on a major exercise in the

Eastern Mediterranean earlier this month, U.S. military officials said

Friday.

Israel's military refused to confirm or deny that the maneuvers were

practice for a strike in Iran, saying only that it regularly trains

for various missions to counter threats to the country.

But the exercise the first week of June may have been meant as a show

of force as well as a practice on skills needed to execute a

long-range strike mission, one U.S. official said, speaking on

condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the

record on the matter.

More than 100 jets

The New York Times quoted officials on Friday as saying that more than

100 Israeli F-16s and F-15s staged the maneuver, flying more than 900

miles, roughly the distance from Israel to Iran's Natanz nuclear

enrichment facility, and that the exercise included refueling tankers

and helicopters capable of rescuing downed pilots.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said he prefers that Iran's

nuclear ambitions be halted by diplomatic means, but has pointedly

declined to rule out military action.

The United States also says it is seeking a peaceful, diplomatic

resolution to the threat the West sees from Iran's nuclear program,

although U.S. officials also have refused to take the threat of

military action off the table.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice refused to comment on the

Israeli maneuvers in an interview with National Public Radio aired

Saturday but said: " We are committed to a diplomatic course. "

Russia's foreign minister warned Friday against the use of force on

Iran, saying there is no proof it is trying to build nuclear weapons

with the a program, which Tehran says is for generating power.

Caution urged

One Israeli lawmaker on Saturday urged caution, saying that the world

should first do more to toughen and broaden the sanctions against Iran

to persuade its leaders to halt the nuclear program.

Tzahi Hanegbi, chairman of the powerful Foreign Affairs and Defense

Committee in Israel's parliament, suggested steps including banning

Iranian planes, ships and sports delegations from entering Western

countries.

" There's a long way to go before diplomatic efforts are exhausted, "

Hanegbi said. " The sanctions aren't very strong, they are very

shallow, there's a lot of room for enhancing them. "

In an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel published

Wednesday, Olmert said the current international sanctions against

Iran would probably not succeed alone, saying there were " many things

that can be done economically, politically, diplomatically and

militarily. "

Asked if Israel was capable of taking military action against Iran,

Olmert said, " Israel always has to be in a position to defend itself

against any adversary and against any threat of any kind. "

Meanwhile, reaction to the Israeli exercises rippled across other

parts of the Gulf.

In Dubai, the government-owned Khaleej Times newspaper warned in an

editorial Saturday that an attack on Iran by Israel or the United

States would have " disastrous consequences for the region. "

" A nuclear Iran is in nobody's interest, but military action and armed

rehearsals will also not be tolerated, " the paper said.

Precedent for action

The U.S. and many Western nations accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear

bomb. Iran has rejected the charges saying its nuclear program is

aimed at generating electricity not a weapon.

A U.S. intelligence report released late last year concluded that Iran

has suspended its nuclear weapons program, but Israeli intelligence

believes that is incorrect and that work is continuing.

There is precedent for unilateral Israeli action. In 1981, Israeli

jets bombed Iraq's Osirak nuclear facility to end dictator Saddam

Hussein's nuclear program. And last September, Israel bombed a

facility in Syria that U.S. officials have said was a nuclear reactor

being constructed with North Korean assistance.

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