RE: Global warming ... ??? OT

[Guest guest]

Yes, the story broke from and newspaper called the Independent. It is

really troubling. Even Canada is getting concerned.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/science/01/12/europe.climate.reut/index.html

Unfortunately it is now only available for sale on their web site since it

is now old news

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/americas/02/05/canada.environment.reut/index.h

tml

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/science/01/12/europe.climate.reut/index.html

Global warming ... ???

OK, a lot of folks here don't believe in it, at least according to a recent

thread, but at leas some folks at the Pentagon do and it made Fortune

Magazine. Read it online ... it's a great article. ...

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/technology/articles/0,15114,582584-1,00.html

When scientists' work on abrupt climate change popped onto his radar

screen, Marshall tapped another eminent visionary, Schwartz, to write

a report on the national-security implications of the threat. Schwartz

formerly headed planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group and has since consulted

with organizations ranging from the CIA to DreamWorks-he helped create

futuristic scenarios for Spielberg's film Minority Report. Schwartz

and co-author Doug Randall at the Monitor Group's Global Business Network, a

scenario-planning think tank in Emeryville, Calif., contacted top climate

experts and pushed them to talk about what-ifs that they usually shy away

from-at least in public.

The result is an unclassified report, completed late last year, that the

Pentagon has agreed to share with FORTUNE. It doesn't pretend to be a

forecast. Rather, it sketches a dramatic but plausible scenario to help

planners think about coping strategies. Here is an abridged version:

A total shutdown of the ocean conveyor might lead to a big chill like the

Younger Dryas, when icebergs appeared as far south as the coast of Portugal.

Or the conveyor might only temporarily slow down, potentially causing an era

like the " Little Ice Age, " a time of hard winters, violent storms, and

droughts between 1300 and 1850. That period's weather extremes caused

horrific famines, but it was mild compared with the Younger Dryas.

For planning purposes, it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of

abrupt change. A century of cold, dry, windy weather across the Northern

Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8,200 years ago fits the bill-its severity

fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age. The event is

thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising

temperatures not unlike today's global warming. Suppose it recurred,

beginning in 2010. Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020:

At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather

variation-allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a " blip " of little importance

and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty. But by

2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening. The average

temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of

North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe. (By

comparison, the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last

ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today.) Massive droughts have

begun in key agricultural regions. The average annual rainfall has dropped

by nearly 30% in northern Europe, and its climate has become more like

Siberia's.

Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on

its way to collapse. A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break

through levees in the Netherlands, making coastal cities such as the Hague

unlivable. In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River

area are breached, disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from

north to south.