Mayo Model - Cindy

[Guest guest]

cindy.baudoux@... wrote:

> athan, how do you calculate the Mayo Clinic thing? I have heard of the

> model, but didn't know what it consisted of.

,

You can go to my web page at:

http://www.mindspring.com/~thegeorges/mayopsc.html

and calculate it there. I gives a risk score, and estimated survivals

at 1, 2, 3 and 4 years. Using the numbers you posted, your one year

survival estimate is somewhere between 98 and 96 depending on how old

you are.

I was a little nervous putting this calculation on the web, because it

is just an estimate, and I was afraid people might take it a bit too

seriously. I put in my numbers from 8 years ago and my 4 year survival

estimate was around 60%, so by that I really should be dead (or

transplanted) by now. Actually my predicted 4 year survival is better

now than it was then!

I mainly use it to help me in descision making about transplant timing

etc. Since my 3 year survival prediction (somewhere between 70 and 80%)

is in the same basic range as the 3 year survival after transplant, I

would like to be listed now. Unfortunately, since UNOS uses the CTP

score for listing, and my score on that scale isn't as bad, I can't get

on the list....

athan

[Guest guest]

So, is there one for estimating transplant survival and estimating survival

without transplant? That would put things in better perspective.

Mayo Model -

cindy.baudoux@... wrote:

> athan, how do you calculate the Mayo Clinic thing? I have heard of

the

> model, but didn't know what it consisted of.

,

You can go to my web page at:

http://www.mindspring.com/~thegeorges/mayopsc.html

and calculate it there. I gives a risk score, and estimated survivals

at 1, 2, 3 and 4 years. Using the numbers you posted, your one year

survival estimate is somewhere between 98 and 96 depending on how old

you are.

I was a little nervous putting this calculation on the web, because it

is just an estimate, and I was afraid people might take it a bit too

seriously. I put in my numbers from 8 years ago and my 4 year survival

estimate was around 60%, so by that I really should be dead (or

transplanted) by now. Actually my predicted 4 year survival is better

now than it was then!

I mainly use it to help me in descision making about transplant timing

etc. Since my 3 year survival prediction (somewhere between 70 and 80%)

is in the same basic range as the 3 year survival after transplant, I

would like to be listed now. Unfortunately, since UNOS uses the CTP

score for listing, and my score on that scale isn't as bad, I can't get

on the list....

athan