a mathematical model to describe AS?

[Guest guest]

read something interesting in mays new scientist.

have thought about it and added my own thoughts, would be interested in bills and claudias comments.

if you consider a brain to be a machine that constantly makes predicitions about the world and constantly updates this knowledge based on what it senses.

the brain represents decisions of the outside world based on probabilities.

i was first interested in this when i read the definition to listening as it applies to music.....

i forget the acrtual definition but it goes something like " inputing what we have heard, with what we are hearing and anticipating what we are going to hear"

the brain will , based on experience, attribute what we hear, or see.....to past experience based on probabilities.

the brain as an inferential data collector or agent will anticipate what it will receive based on experience.

if a bayesian model is adapted to the the brain a lot becomes very predictable.

a brief insight of bayesian statistics is thus:

if i throw a ball at a target i can calculate that i may hit the target of interest about 1 in 20 throws. if, however i then throw the ball at an object with my eyes open i may hit it 10 in 20 times.

it is a model of prediction based on changing conditions.

part 2:

neuron A predixts that beuron B will respond to a stimulus in a certain way, if the prediciton is wrong the Neuron A will alter the steength of its connection with neuron B to minimize this prediction error.

so this can describe how normal brains work, but it is also similar in my opinion to how AS brains work with some differences.

When i experince something, i memorise that experience, we all do.

when i experience somethign again i expect it to be the same. i dont anticipate change, i expect sameness. based on past experience, i will ANTICIPATE the same thing to happen. my ability to change the conditional is reduced. therefore the bayesian approach

may work for non AS when they throw a ball at a target with their eyes closed or open, distracted by noise, sounds, smells ets, non-AS can predict what may happen gicen many different variable and conditions, i cant, unless i have experienced all these different variables and conditions as a distinct experience, on its own.

but if neuron A tell neuron B..." this will happen" and when it doesnt happen non AS neron A may then decide to tell another neuron, in my brain, neuron A will keep telling neuron B the same message, the same steength again and again, there is a reduced capacity for lateral pathways to develop unless this pathway has been previously experienced.

so the other way to lookign at this is, if i have experienced something before the connection and anticipation of an outcome will be quicker in my brain as my brain doesnt hedge its bets and send of half strength singals to neoron B in anticipation of change. it will be the whole strength signal to the one neuron based on past experience....if i have done somethign before i am usually good at it, the more i do it, the better i get. leads onto the chain theory of AS linear thought.

problem with this is:

unless i have experienced it before, i wont know what to do. i wont anticiapte another outcome i appear closed minded.

Do AS think in bayesian terms with a conditional factor the same?

and based on this are we then able to very quickly anticipate the outcomes for many different outcomes based on the same condition, where non AS can anticiapte the outcome for one event based on different conditions?

are we fixed bayes thinkers?

example.......throw a ball at a target with eyes closed.

the condition is eyes closed.

so i will throw and learn that if i keep my eyes closed i will hit it in time, i can alter my angle of approach anticipate the stegth of throw required, perhaps consider richochet and rebound shots in my throws etc etc. where a non AS may just throw and hope.

now consider the eyes closed and a windy day scenario.

i will now adjust for the wind as well as other variables described, thinjk about it and throw.

a non AS will still throw and hope.

the point being , if a non As has not experienced somethign before, their approach will be similar, whereas for AS their approach will be worse as the conditions, unexperienced conditions will not have been encountered, anticipated or rote learned, there are now too many variables.

AS crashes, non AS gets same result.

keep variable constans, the AS will have a stronger linerar neuronal connection and will, in time be better than non AS.

does anyone know what the hell i am saying?

36 m diagnosed AS

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