Adults Now Drive Growth of Vaccine Market

[Guest guest]

http://www.genengnews.com/articles/chitem.aspx?aid=2490

Jun 1 2008 (Vol. 28, No. 11)

Adults Now Drive Growth of Vaccine Market

Success of Merck's Gardasil Is Responsible for the Large

Increase Seen in this Sector

Bruce CarlsonFor much of the 20th century,

vaccines were a pharmaceutical success story largely associated with

children. Aggressive immunization programs eradicated polio and smallpox

in developed nations and nearly eliminated mumps, pertussis, measles, and

other diseases. While immunization of the young is still a health

priority worldwide and pediatric vaccines an important market, it is now

adults who are fueling the growth of vaccine products.

Adults are as likely as children to die from diseases that they can be

immunized against. For example, vaccines can prevent about 50% of deaths

from pneumococcal disease and 80% of deaths from influenza-related

complications in the elderly. Public-policy programs and pharmaceutical

industry marketing seem to be finally catching up with this reality.

Kalorama Information estimates that 2007 was the first year that adult

vaccine sales overtook pediatric sales, just slightly but significantly

nonetheless. Adult vaccines represented 44% of total vaccine sales in

2006. By 2007, sales attributed to adult doses rose to 50.6% of vaccine

sales. This surprising development can be attributed to robust sales of a

group of influenza vaccines and the success of one product­Merck &

Co.’s Gardasil for the HPV virus, which posted sales of $1.5 billion

in 2007.

World sales of adult vaccines exceeded $8.2 billion in 2007, increasing

51.0% over 2006 sales of $5.4 billion. Sales of adult vaccines are

projected to increase at a compound annual rate of 12.0% from 2008 to

2013 and reach $17.6 billion in 2013.

Last year’s result could be written off as a one-time occurrence

explained by the higher cost of adult vaccines (Gardasil carries an

estimated price tag of $300–$500), and indeed adult vaccines are not

expected to maintain the leadership position as competition and volume

reduce adult vaccine prices. Yet the sudden show of strength by the adult

segment portends a future where the segments will roughly equal out.

The success of Gardasil and adult influenza vaccines has not only shaken

up the market place­vaulting Merck from an estimated fourth place to a

leadership role in the vaccine market in two years­but it has also

created a tremendous opportunity for vaccine marketing. It is likely that

the pharmaceutical industry will look to new adult vaccines for the next

blockbuster drug. This may result in products in disease areas that were

not treated by vaccines in the past.

In 2007, the world market for preventive vaccines totaled $16.3 billion,

up more than 38% from $11.7 billion in 2006. The market is predicted to

increase at a compound annual rate of 13.1% during 2008. This growth rate

is unheard of in other drug categories, especially since this is expected

to be a challenging year for the pharmaceutical industry. Few other drug

categories will see as many new product introductions and such

public-policy attention.

The world vaccines market is dominated by five companies: Merck &

Co., GlaxoKline, Sanofi Pasteur, Wyeth, and Novartis.

The four largest firms, whose reported vaccine sales exceeded $2 billion

each in 2007, held a combined 91.5% of the market.

In 2007, Merck was the leading competitor with 26.2% market share,

followed closely by Sanofi Pasteur with 25.9% and GlaxoKline with

24.2%. Wyeth followed at a distance with 15.2%, while Novartis held at

5.8%. In 2007, Novartis reported strong growth in its new vaccines and

diagnostics division, with total sales of almost $1.5 billion on expanded

usage of vaccines for tick-borne encephalitis, seasonal influenza, and

pediatric immunizations.

Pediatric VaccinesWhile adult vaccine revenues have grown

more dramatically, there has been no letdown in sales of pediatric

vaccines. Increased vaccination and new products will continue to drive

growth in this category.

Global vaccination rates will continue to rise, but wide discrepancies

will remain from region to region. In 2007, almost 30 million infants

worldwide had not been vaccinated against DPT3, with 75% of those living

in India, China, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Congo, Sudan,

Bangladesh, and the Philippines.

In 2007, global sales of pediatric vaccines exceeded $8.0 billion, an

increase of 25.2% over 2006 sales of $6.3 billion. This high growth was

due in part to continued heavy gains of Wyeth’s pneumococcal vaccine,

Prevnar during the year, as well as the introduction of Merck’s, RotaTeq.

From 2007 to 2012, sales of Prevnar are expected to follow a more

moderate growth rate, although new pneumococcal vaccines will be

introduced that could stimulate further gains. This will result in an

overall market expansion of 14.2% per year from 2008 to 2013, with total

sales reaching $18.8 billion at the end of the forecast period.

--------------------------------------------------------

Sheri Nakken, former R.N., MA, Hahnemannian

Homeopath

Vaccination Information & Choice Network, Nevada City CA & Wales

UK

Vaccines -

http://www.wellwithin1.com/vaccine.htm

Vaccine Dangers & Homeopathy Online/email courses