The Costs of Autism: was:Re: Re: Another point on Palin

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THE COSTS OF "AUTISM", THE COSTS OF WAR AND OTHER CALCULATIONSMany times I have read messages and other writings speaking of the "costs" of autism. I have looked fairly closely at this topic over the years and have a pretty good basis for projecting what those costs are or will be. Other posts have suggested that the costs will bankrupt the country, especially if the litigation over vaccines is successful. While the costs are staggering they are tame compared with other recent social costs, such as the war in Iraq. Also, the costs of compensation should vaccine injury litigants be successful will not add appreciably to these costs, as the cost of care will be the same wheather paid through compensation or Medicaid, assuming our society steps up and takes care of affected individuals the way it must.Recent credible estimates place the cost of the Iraq war in dollars (not including other costs) as $3Trillion. cite: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030702846.htmlWashington Post March, 2008: "But beyond this is the cost to the already sputtering U.S. economy. All told, the bill for the Iraq war is likely to top $3 trillion. And that's a conservative estimate."I have done some analysis over the years of the costs of "autism". Based on actual experience in providing care for individuals with seriously disabling conditions I have estimated the lifetime care costs for an individual with autism as an average of $10 million.That number could be higher but it is a cost spread out over the average 60 year or so expected lifetime of such an individual. To put the costs of paying compensation in perspective there have been few, if any, awards in vaccine court that exceeded $10 million and these also were "structured" awards, that is, compensation paid out for care over extended periods of time, usually not lump sums.Extrapolating these numbers my estimate is that the cost of caring for individuals with autism, whether paid out of the vaccine compensation fund, or through Medicaid or some other mechanism - (the costs could be the same-the litigation will not add appreciable amounts to the cost) will be $3Trillion assuming there are 300,000 affected individuals through age 21. Double the amount if there are 600,000 affected individuals in the more severe category. These numbers are consistent with recent CDC estimates.So the cost will be as high as $6Trillion. But that number is going to be paid over at least 60 years (I am leaving out "present value" costs that make these numbers seem even tamer).So the annual cost of the autism epidemic may be between $50Billion and $100billion annually, and it does not matter very significantly whether this cost is paid as compensation through litigation or as Medicaid or other social costs.Compare this to the current cost of the war in Iraq, which is $150billion to $300 billion per year, with no end in sight to either the costs or the escalation in costs.I have good hard backup for these numbers, and the numbers are based on conservative assumptions. I am preparing a more complete article on this topic.By the way, recently a professor from Harvard who now works for Abt Associates, consultants to the pharmaceutical industry, recently placed the cost of autism at $3.2million per individual in a book chapter and also in an article published in a public health journal. I spoke to this researcher who conceded that he grossly underestimated the cost by leaving out certain numbers and making other assumptions that are likely incorrect and result in an underestimate. If he is right, however, the costs of autism will be far lower than my projections.The cost of autism is staggering but our country can handle it if it steps up to the challenge. Other less necessary and less productive projects have cost far more.Bob KrakowExcellent point, Bob. While my older son has healed from "classic autism" to "high functioning", my youngest son is a poster example of this. His life has improved through some of the treatments that we have implemented, but he will always require a high level of life-long care. This is the case with many of our children. I have accepted this and want to be sure that he has exceptional care when I am gone. That is one of the many reasons that we need to point out the expenses that it will take for each child through their lifespan. > >>> >> >>> > ON POLITICAL CAMPAIGNING AS USUAL and THE WELFARE OF OUR KIDS> >>> >> >>> >> >>> > Since there is a great deal of information being spread out here > >>> on> >>> > this list, including these OT pieces on the fortunes of the > >>> McCain/> >>> > Palin campaign posted below, I would like to understand how and > >>> when> >>> > McCain or Palin have, in their record, taken on the pharmaceutical> >>> > industry or, since we are at it - OT - the oil industry.> >>>> >>> -snip-> >>>> >>> >> J. Krakow> >> Attorney at Law> >> 1205 lin Avenue, Suite 110> >> Garden City, NY 11530> >> > >> (fax)> >> rkrakowearthlink (DOT) net> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> > J. Krakow> > Attorney at Law> > 1205 lin Avenue, Suite 110> > Garden City, NY 11530> > > > (fax)> > rkrakowearthlink (DOT) net> >> >> >> >> >> > > > J. Krakow> Attorney at Law> 1205 lin Avenue, Suite 110> Garden City, NY 11530> > (fax)> rkrakow@...> J. KrakowAttorney at Law1205 lin Avenue, Suite 110Garden City, NY 11530 (fax)rkrakow@...