Re: Does the NFL Combine Predict Performance?

[Guest guest]

> From a practical standpoint, the results of the study should

> encourage NFL team personnel to reevaluate the usefulness of the

> combine's physical tests and exercises as predictors of player

> performance. This study should encourage team personnel to consider

> the weighting and importance of various combine measures and the

> potential benefits of overhauling the combine process, with the goal

> of creating a more valid system for predicting player success

Greetings,

One of my all time best friends is stan NFL LINE MEN hall of

fame. We used to watch combine films of up coming BRONCO draftees for

the NFL draft -- he was def line and strength coach. He was a genius

among geniuses when it came to exercise and evaluating talent.

One day he said -- all of these test scores are next to useless the

only thing that counts is one to one on the spot watching the player

in actual games. I remember linebacker Randy Gradishar, during his

last years -- all great -- could hardly muster, after many leg

injures, a 5.3 -- not 4.3 -- forty and coach Reeves was begging him, a

linebacker at that, for one more year. I even helped with pre-season

player evaluations and heard Tom , not a great tester, but

really good player ask " AND WHERES THE MEASURE FOR HEART " Even when

test scores are dramatic it has little bearing on actual ability --

the only way to recognize is through the eyes of a well experienced

person during actual -- not practice, much less combine -- conditions.

One Sunday I was bemoaning the fact of having to sit in the end zone

of a Bronco's game until, as I watched through my binocs, Terrel

pick his running lanes BEFORE they opened. There would be this massive

pile of people pursuing laterally, then a lane would open and

was in the middle of it. You have to remember T was admittedly

" not that fast " and when asked how he did such things would just smile

and shrug his shoulders. Well I know how -- innate talent -- some have

it -- 99.99999% dont. And T was essentially a blocking back in

college and picked 5-6th in the draft!!!

In 15 years of coaching jr an sr high football I know of only one

player, Mike Santiago, who had this talent as an 8th and 9th grader --

through high school. Great wrestler, basketball player and a 20' +

long jumper in the 9 th grade, at 130 lbs 160 Sr and full ride to U

of New Mexico -- great olympic weight lifting skills. A real 1 time

show and tell athlete!

> " predictors of player performance " -- PERFORMANCE

Jerry Telle

Lakewood CO USA

[Guest guest]

,

Actually with 32 teams grading and ranking 300+ prospective players, it's not

surprising that the whole 'interview' process is imperfect. Plus the more you

learn about the content of the NFL Scouting Combine, the more you discover that

it's based on tradition and mythology more so than science. Here's an article

that gives an overview of what it involves:

http://www.training-conditioning.com/2008/12/prepping_for_the_pros.html

The study you mentioned is one of at least three that have addressed this issue

in recent years (abstracts are pasted below). It's interesting that Kuzmits &

only examined 3 positions, as it would have been useful to know what

trends they might have found at others. The studies by McGee & Burkett and

Sierer et al. examined all positions and found several performance tests with

predictive ability.

Having said that - there's much more to the Combine than running and jumping;

and there's no doubt it could be improved. However trying to get coaches and GMs

out of the " this is how we've always done it " mindset is no small challenge.

Many still seem to be unclear on the concept of evidence-based practice.

Regards,

Plisk

Excelsior Sports •Shelton CT

www.excelsiorsports.com

Prepare To Be A Champion!

----------

Kuzmits F.E., A.J. The NFL combine: does it predict performance

in the National Football League? J. Strength Cond. Res. 22(6): 1721-1727,

2008.

http://www.nsca-jscr.org/pt/re/jscr/abstract.00124278-200811000-00001.htm

The authors investigate the correlation between National Football

League (NFL) combine test results and NFL success for players drafted

at three different offensive positions (quarterback, running back, and

wide receiver) during a recent 6-year period, 1999-2004. The combine

consists of series of drills, exercises, interviews, aptitude tests,

and physical exams designed to assess the skills of promising college

football players and to predict their performance in the NFL. Combine

measures examined in this study include 10-, 20-, and 40-yard dashes,

bench press, vertical jump, broad jump, 20- and 60-yard shuttles,

three-cone drill, and the Wonderlic Personnel Test. Performance

criteria include 10 variables: draft order; 3 years each of salary

received and games played; and position-specific data. Using

correlation analysis, we find no consistent statistical relationship

between combine tests and professional football performance, with the

notable exception of sprint tests for running backs. We put forth

possible explanations for the general lack of statistical relations

detected, and, consequently, we question the overall usefulness of the

combine. We also offer suggestions for improving the prediction of

success in the NFL, primarily the use of more rigorous psychological

tests and the examination of collegiate performance as a job sample

test. Finally, from a practical standpoint, the results of the study

should encourage NFL team personnel to reevaluate the usefulness of the

combine's physical tests and exercises as predictors of player

performance. This study should encourage team personnel to consider the

weighting and importance of various combine measures and the potential

benefits of overhauling the combine process, with the goal of creating

a more valid system for predicting player success.

McGee K.J., Burkett L.N.The National Football League combine: a reliable

predictor of draft status?J. Strength Cond. Res.17(1): 6-11, 2003.

http://www.nsca-jscr.org/pt/re/jscr/abstract.00124278-200302000-00002.htm

The performance of 326 collegiate football players attending the 2000

National Football League combine was studied to determine whether draft

status could be predicted from performance measurements. The combine

measured height and weight along with 9 performance tests: 225-lb bench

press test, 10-yd dash, 20-yd dash, 40-yd dash, 20-yd proagility

shuttle, 60-yd shuttle, 3-cone drill, broad jump, and vertical jump.

Prediction equations were generated for 7 position categories with

varying degrees of accuracy-running backs (RBs), r2 = 1.00; wide

receivers (WRs), r2 = 1.00; offensive linemen, r2 = 0.70; defensive

linemen, r2 = 0.59; defensive backs (DBs), r2 = 1..00; linebackers, r2 =

0.22; and quarterbacks, r2 = 0.84. The successes of the prediction

equations are related to the ability of the individual tests to assess

the necessary skills for each position. This study concludes that the

combine can be used to accurately predict draft status of RBs, WRs, and

DBs. The equations can also be used as a good to fair estimate for

other positions.

Sierer S.P., Battaglini C.L., Mihalik J.P., Shields E.W., Tomasini N.T. The

National Football League combine: performance differences between drafted and

nondrafted players entering the 2004 and 2005 drafts. J. Strength Cond.

Res.22(1): 6-12, 2008.

http://www.nsca-jscr.org/pt/re/jscr/abstract.00124278-200801000-00003.htm

The purpose of this study was to examine performance differences

between drafted and nondrafted athletes (N = 321) during the 2004 and

2005 National Football League (NFL) Combines. We categorized players

into one of 3 groups: Skill, Big skill, and Linemen. Skill players (SP)

consisted of wide receivers, cornerbacks, free safeties, strong

safeties, and running backs. Big skill players (BSP) included

fullbacks, linebackers, tight ends, and defensive ends. Linemen (LM)

consisted of centers, offensive guards, offensive tackles, and

defensive tackles. We analyzed player height and mass, as well as

performance on the following combine drills: 40-yard dash, 225-lb bench

press test, vertical jump, broad jump, pro-agility shuttle, and the

3-cone drill. Student t-tests compared performance on each of these

measures between drafted and nondrafted players. Statistical

significance was found between drafted and nondrafted SP for the

40-yard dash (P < 0.001), vertical jump (P = 0.003), pro-agility

shuttle (P < 0.001), and 3-cone drill (P < 0.001). Drafted and

nondrafted BSP performed differently on the 40-yard dash (P = 0.002)

and 3-cone drill (P = 0.005). Finally, drafted LM performed

significantly better than nondrafted LM on the 40-yard dash (P =

0.016), 225-lb bench press (P = 0.003), and 3-cone drill (P = 0.005).

Certified strength and conditioning specialists will be able to utilize

the significant findings to help better prepare athletes as they ready

themselves for the NFL Combine.