Will March 19 'Supermoon' Trigger Natural Disasters?

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Will March 19 'Supermoon' Trigger Natural Disasters?

By Wolchover , Life's Little Mysteries Staff Writer, Space.com |

SPACE.com – Thu, 10 Mar, 2011 10:06 AM EST

On March 19, the moon will swing around Earth more closely than it has in the

past 18 years, lighting up the night sky from just 221,567 miles (356,577

kilometers) away. On top of that, it will be full. And one astrologer believes

it could inflict massive damage on the planet.

Nolle, a noted astrologer who runs the website astropro.com, has

famously termed the upcoming full moon at lunar perigee (the closest approach

during its orbit) an " extreme supermoon. "

When the moon goes super-extreme, Nolle says, chaos will ensue: Huge storms,

earthquakes, volcanoes and other natural disasters can be expected to wreak

havoc on Earth. (It should be noted that astrology is not a real science, but

merely makes connections between astronomical and mystical events.)

But do we really need to start stocking survival shelters in preparation for the

supermoon?

The question is not actually so crazy. In fact scientists have studied related

scenarios for decades. Even under normal conditions, the moon is close enough to

Earth to make its weighty presence felt: It causes the ebb and flow of the ocean

tides.

The moon's gravity can even cause small but measureable ebbs and flows in the

continents, called " land tides " or " solid Earth tides, " too. The tides are

greatest during full and new moons, when the sun and moon are aligned either on

the same or opposite sides of the Earth.

According to Vidale, a seismologist at the University of Washington in

Seattle and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, particularly

dramatic land and ocean tides do trigger earthquakes. " Both the moon and sun do

stress the Earth a tiny bit, and when we look hard we can see a very small

increase in tectonic activity when they're aligned, " Vidale told Life's Little

Mysteries, a sister site to SPACE.com.

At times of full and new moons, " you see a less-than-1-percent increase in

earthquake activity, and a slightly higher response in volcanoes. "

The effect of tides on seismic activity is greatest in subduction zones such as

the Pacific Northwest, where one tectonic plate is sliding under another.

Wilcock, another seismologist at the University of Washington,

explained: " When you have a low tide, there's less water, so the pressure on the

seafloor is smaller. That pressure is clamping the fault together, so when it's

not there, it makes it easier for the fault to slip. "

According to Wilcock, earthquake activity in subduction zones at low tides is 10

percent higher than at other times of the day, but he hasn't observed any

correlations between earthquake activity and especially low tides at new and

full moons. Vidale has observed only a very small correlation.

What about during a lunar perigee? Can we expect more earthquakes and volcanic

eruptions on March 19, when the full moon will be so close?

The moon's gravitational pull at lunarperigee, the scientists say, is not

different enough from its pull at other times to significantly change the height

of the tides and thus the likelihood of natural disasters.

" A lot of studies have been done on this kind of thing by USGS scientists and

others, " Bellini, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey, told Life's

Little Mysteries. " They haven't found anything significant at all. "

Vidale concurred. " Practically speaking, you'll never see any effect of lunar

perigee, " he said. " It's somewhere between 'It has no effect' and 'It's so small

you don't see any effect.' "

The bottom line is, the upcoming supermoon won't cause a preponderance of

earthquakes, although the idea isn't a crazy one.

" Earthquakes don't respond as much to the tides as you'd think they would. There

should actually be more of an effect, " said Vidale.

Most natural disasters have nothing to do with the moon at all. The Earth has a

lot of pent up energy, and it releases it anytime the buildup gets too great.

The supermoon probably won't push it past the tipping point, but we'll know for

sure, one way or the other, by March 20.

This story was provided by Life's Little Mysteries, a sister site of SPACE.com.