Re: Walmart CEO predicts serious inflation by June

[Guest guest]

" Walmart announced a few months ago that it had its own measure of inflation and

from what I saw of it then it was more accurate than that of the government. Of

course, the government has a vested interest in hiding inflation to keep the

debt ridden consumers passive. Soon they won't be able to hide it anymore. It

will be interesting to see if, once it really kicks in, what kind of reception

those howling unionists get then, especially the public ones. I wonder also what

the people will think when public employees get cost of living adjustments, as

maybe to welfare recipients, while everyone else is getting squeezed. "

Old news to me because I am the only one in the universe who seems to read

what's happening on the commodities exchange and the futures exchange these

days. I know what people will be paying for corn, wheat, vegetable oil, meat,

fuel, lumber, coffee, metals, you name it. But people evidentally think the

stock market sections of the newspapers are boring, which is why most papers

have cut out that section.

Administrator

[Guest guest]

I've been watching the commodity prices as well. That's why I'm buying clothes now and over the coming months to try to build up a few year's supply. I'm buying things that should wear well and stand up to use. The last round of jeans I bought maybe 6 years ago had finally passed the point of being used in public. I'm also going to buy some new winter as well as summer things.

Food is going to be a problem though. I've already seen my usual load of groceries go up in price. What used to be double digit bills are already in the triple digits. I've also been stocking up on non perishables like paper goods, soap and such.

Higher lumber prices would be good for, but that would no doubt rise less than other prices. Pepsi I think it was has started making bottles make from plastic make from pine trees which is good if it catches on. If more plastics came to use that technology it would be good for me. Still, no telling if it will or not these days.

But yes it is worrisome. I'm really concerned about when commodities aren't priced in dollars anymore. That's when it will really hit the fan. I'm also wondering about all those dollars being stored at the Fed. What happens when interest rates go up and the banks start throwing money around putting it back in circulation? My guess is all that money out there chasing fewer goods will mean even more inflation.

In a message dated 3/31/2011 2:46:23 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, no_reply writes:

Old news to me because I am the only one in the universe who seems to read what's happening on the commodities exchange and the futures exchange these days. I know what people will be paying for corn, wheat, vegetable oil, meat, fuel, lumber, coffee, metals, you name it. But people evidentally think the stock market sections of the newspapers are boring, which is why most papers have cut out that section.Administrator

[Guest guest]

" Higher lumber prices would be good for, but that would no doubt rise less than

other prices. Pepsi I think it was has started making bottles make from plastic

make from pine trees which is good if it catches on. If more plastics came to

use that technology it would be good for me. Still, no telling if it will or not

these days. "

Lumber prices are not going up at a rate that beats the rate of inflation,

primarily due to the poor housing market. The good news is that smaller hardwood

trees can grow longer, yielding more lumber per tree and drawing a larger

premium once cut.

The prices of some other commodities have DOUBLED in one year's time, and the

futures exchange shows that there will be further spikes in prices throughout

the year.

Look for sugar to go up. Many soft drink companies can't afford corn syrup

thanks to the corn to fuel program, so they are replacing their corn syrup with

sugar. Aside from what this will do to our teeth, the additional problem is that

a little bit of corn syrup creates a lot of sweetness, whereas a huge amount of

sugar is needed to produce that same sweetness, so anything you buy that has

sugar in it will wind up costing a lot more thanks to so little sugar being put

on the market in the future. Meanwhile, crops that previously went to corn syrup

will now go to ethanol because Obama wants to raise the amount of ethanol in our

fuels, so corn prices will still remain high.

Administrator

[Guest guest]

My concerns exactly, that and the continued decline in newsprint and books. Other uses for timber are being developed but it seems that if the people managing those projects aren't total incompetents, then green lawyers will try to stop the projects on whatever groups they can dream up. Add government getting in the way, changing its mind and generally being a nuisance, it will be a wonder if anything gets done.

For example: a plant had set up an expansion that would make ethanol from waste wood. However, the designer screwed it up so badly that it never worked even after several years. On the other hand, a foreign company is buying a plant near my place and they will make that paper receipts are printed on. I forgot to ask today when I talked to the folks down there if that deal went through or not. It would be nice if it has of course.

Still, depending on fuel prices, the loggers might all go under and then we've all had it. By that I mean not just land owners but companies big and small and even entire counties. Of course it won't just be loggers but all farmers and there are a lot of small farmers in the region, and by small farmers I mean independents and not Big Agra. The counties depend on agriculture revenue and if those business fail, they're in trouble too.

It just a crime that we've elected incompetents over the decades that have gotten us in this mess, and a shame we haven't canceled the Fed, something that should have been done decades ago. The ones we have now are not only corrupt and ignorant, but against our very system to begin with.

In a message dated 3/31/2011 4:47:15 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, no_reply writes:

Lumber prices are not going up at a rate that beats the rate of inflation, primarily due to the poor housing market. The good news is that smaller hardwood trees can grow longer, yielding more lumber per tree and drawing a larger premium once cut.

[Guest guest]

Here is where I ho to get commodity prices.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-cashprices.html?mod=mdc_cmd_cash

Take a look at what everything sold for now verses what it sold for a year ago.

Wheat is double the price. So is corn oil. If you look on the futures exchange,

you can see prices will go up by as much as 50% on many items in less that a

year's time.

Go here to see today's lumber settlements (you will have to look for it):

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-fut_agricultural-futures.html

At the very top of the chart, click on where it says " find historical data, and

you can do a comparrison about how lumber is doing now verses times in the past.

In March 31,st of last year, lumber was selling for maybe $8.00 less per 1,000

board feet. A board foot, for those who do not know, is 1 foot by 1 foot by 1

inch. A board 1 foot by 1 foot by 2 inches thick would be two board feet.

Lumber settlements from a year ago:

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-fut_agricultural-futures-20100331.h\

tml?mod=mdc_pastcalendar

Go here to see lumber futures:

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3028.html?category=Other & subcategory=Lum\

ber & contract= & catandsubcat=Other%257CLumber & contractset=Wheat%252520Comp.%252520\

-%252520cbot

While the futures look good, it is important that these prices are not final.

They are bids, not settlement contracts, and we would expect prices to be much

much higher in the summer, but they are not significantly higher. They will

settle for less, although those who have already bought may take margin calls on

existing purchases.

Lumber has taken a small spike only because of the prospect of a land war with

Libya, which requires lumber for bases and barracks. It has also spiked because

of an anticipated need for lumber for earthquake recovery, but it is still

selling for very low.

Administrator

[Guest guest]

Remember I traded commodities for a time. Some of what you see now is speculation across the board. Regular financials aren't paying so people are looking at the one of the last places they can put their money and still hope to make more. Savings accounts, CDs, etc., aren't paying jack. They used to be good. I had a CD some time back that paid for a decent meal out every month with money to spare. I had to cash it out but I wouldn't bother now since they pay around 1% or less. A lot of bonds are junk as well. So that leave commodities, and currencies.

The jump in timber price isn't so much about possible war. You frequently see temporary blips like this for many reasons. If a few mills close down for maintenance, that can drive up prices until they come back online, same if one shuts down for other temporary reasons. Bad weather can also be a factor. If it rains a lot, the ground is too soft to do logging so inventories at the mills get low and prices go up. Look at what has been happening lately: snow in the northeast and other parts of the country and heavy rains in the south. Around my place has seen about 5 or 6 inches this month, most of it in a couple of heavy rains. That soaks the soil and there are places loggers can't get to for days after because the ground is so soft. Of course if another strong hurricane blows through, timber prices will likely plunge because of the massive amount of recovered wood which will glut the market. That happened after Ivan and prices never really recovered.

It seems every time there is a little upward pressure, something has happened to put it back down. That's one reason we're hoping these new plastics and other things will gain wide acceptance because that will put a sustained upward pressure on prices.

Any war pressure is more likely on oil, gold and other metals. Those are also going to draw the speculators now. Also, those prices are rising as the dollar falls because they are still traded in dollars.

Good charts, BTW. I don't follow them as precisely as I used to but I still understand them.

In a message dated 3/31/2011 9:23:39 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, no_reply writes:

While the futures look good, it is important that these prices are not final. They are bids, not settlement contracts, and we would expect prices to be much much higher in the summer, but they are not significantly higher. They will settle for less, although those who have already bought may take margin calls on existing purchases. Lumber has taken a small spike only because of the prospect of a land war with Libya, which requires lumber for bases and barracks. It has also spiked because of an anticipated need for lumber for earthquake recovery, but it is still selling for very low.

[Guest guest]

I think properly managed forests, with appropriate harvesting, can be more

sustainable in the long term than forests which are allowed to become old growth

and deteriorate

(unless the 'greenies' would allow natural fire over large tracts as happened in

the pre-white man days. BUT i don't know if un-managed fires are feasible

nowadays, as the forests have been broken up into small patches, wood lots etc,

in many areas.)

rl

'My cat Rusty is a servant of the Living God....'adapted from a poem by

Smart

Subject: Re: Re: Walmart CEO predicts serious inflation by

June

To: FAMSecretSociety

Received: Thursday, March 31, 2011, 3:02 PM

My concerns exactly, that and the continued decline in newsprint and books.

Other uses for timber are being developed but it seems that if the people

managing those projects aren't total incompetents, then green lawyers will try

to stop the projects on whatever groups they can dream up. Add government

getting in the way, changing its mind and generally being a nuisance, it will be

a wonder if anything gets done.

 

For example: a plant had set up an expansion that would make ethanol from

waste wood. However, the designer screwed it up so badly that it never worked

even after several years. On the other hand, a foreign company is buying a plant

near my place and they will make that paper receipts are printed on. I forgot to

ask today when I talked to the folks down there if that deal went through or

not. It would be nice if it has of course.

 

Still, depending on fuel prices, the loggers might all go under and then

we've all had it. By that I mean not just land owners but companies big and

small and even entire counties. Of course it won't just be loggers but all

farmers and there are a lot of small farmers in the region, and by small farmers

I mean independents and not Big Agra. The counties depend on agriculture revenue

and if those business fail, they're in trouble too.

 

It just a crime that we've elected incompetents over the decades that have

gotten us in this mess, and a shame we haven't canceled the Fed, something that

should have been done decades ago. The ones we have now are not only corrupt and

ignorant, but against our very system to begin with.

 

 

[Guest guest]

Properly managed forests tend to be much healthier than wild forests. This is because forests get thinned out where wild forests can grow so densely that the trees crowd each other and are more susceptible to disease and insects. I remember reading accounts by early settlers who said there were places where trees grew so closely together that a person couldn't walk between them. I've seen a few places like that on abandoned or wild lands, and I'm not counting undergrowth and such but actual adult trees.

Fires can be good, but have to be very carefully done. Now and then one will get out of hand if done when the winds are too high or conditions are too dry. Again, with managed lands there is usually a road network that allows firefighter to get in to the fires better.

The problem is that states and the federal government have been buying up a lot of land. In Alabama this project is called "Forever Wild." That probably sells well with the big city greens, more parks for them never to visit, but in practice it is bad. These lands are put out of production which means lost jobs and revenue to counties that often are reliant on the timber industry and farming. I think that one of these projects is around 100,000 acres and they want to make it bigger. Compare that 100,000 acres to the size of cities and counties and you can see how much land is going away. Or you can look at certain maps and see the green park areas marked out on the maps to see how much there is. This is also bad because these lands won't be managed which means higher risk of fire, disease, etc. which could lead to disaster.

Tin foil hat time. Some of these projects in Alabama are following the maps found in UN Agenda 21, AKA the Treaty of Rio, signed by president Bush I. This treaty aims to put 50% of the US off limits to human activity completely and restrict usage in most of the rest. People would be relocated into a few extremely dense coastal regions, all of which are in seismic hazard zones or hurricane threat zones (which is incredibly stupid because if interior cities are destroyed as the plan states, then they will have nowhere to run when a big hurricane comes). If this is what is happening, then I may be under direct threat one day of having my land stolen from my under UN auspices, or maybe just the state of Alabama. Either way, my productive enterprise that has been in my family for 170 years or so would be stolen on the whim of dirt worshippers. Mind you, I don't think anyone here, at least not regular posters, are dirt worshippers. Its possible to be an environmentalist without being one of the loons like those who created the treaty of Rio. (Naturally the Bush clan doesn't care what happens to the US because they have a vast ranch in Paraguay which owns significant water rights. Look it up its not a conspiracy theory.)

I think properly managed forests, with appropriate harvesting, can be more sustainable in the long term than forests which are allowed to become old growth and deteriorate (unless the 'greenies' would allow natural fire over large tracts as happened in the pre-white man days. BUT i don't know if un-managed fires are feasible nowadays, as the forests have been broken up into small patches, wood lots etc, in many areas.)rl

[Guest guest]

" Its possible to be an environmentalist without being one of the loons like

those who created the treaty of Rio. "

From my user name, people can tell that I am an environmentalist. As it happens,

I agree with 's concept of managed forests and sustainability. I also

agree with his opinion about ethanol to fuel.

I disagree with his views on the cause of global warming but agree that much of

the warming we are experiencing is due to natural solar activity and natural

earthly cycles.

Right now, there is a major crisis going on in Japan with the nuclear reactors,

and environmentalists are using this as an opportunity to convince legislators

to axe future nuclear energy endeavors. I think this is wrong. We need MORE

nuclear energy. While it is not cheap to create the reactors, the vast amount of

energy produced is worth it when you compare the amount of toxic waste that

comes from it.

You have to mine the ingredients, and you have to use energy to create the heavy

water for collant, but the amount of fuel and material expended in these

endeavors is far less than literally crumbling mountains to pieces (as they have

done in some states) to get at coal, the cost of transportation, and the amount

of carbon being blown into the atmosphere when the coal is burned up. The same

can be said of heating oil and natural gas.

People have to think sensibly about the future, and a true environmentalist is

one that works to find the best compromise between what society needs to survive

and what the environment needs to survive.

Administrator