US Navy drones: Coming to a carrier near China?

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US Navy drones: Coming to a carrier near China?

By ERIC TALMADGE, Associated Press Talmadge, Associated Press – Mon May 16,

7:31 am ET

YOKOSUKA, Japan – The U.S. is developing aircraft carrier-based drones that

could provide a crucial edge as it tries to counter China's military rise.

American officials have been tightlipped about where the unmanned armed planes

might be used, but a top Navy officer has told The Associated Press that some

would likely be deployed in Asia.

" They will play an integral role in our future operations in this region, "

predicted Vice Adm. Van Buskirk, commander of the U.S. 7th Fleet, which

covers most of the Pacific and Indian oceans.

Land-based drones are in wide use in the war in Afghanistan, but sea-based

versions will take several more years to develop. Northrop Grumman conducted a

first-ever test flight — still on land — earlier this year.

Van Buskirk didn't mention China specifically, but military analysts agree the

drones could offset some of China's recent advances, notably its work on a

" carrier-killer " missile.

" Chinese military modernization is the major long-term threat that the U.S. must

prepare for in the Asia-Pacific region, and robotic vehicles — aerial and

subsurface — are increasingly critical to countering that potential threat, "

said Cronin, a senior analyst with the Washington-based Center for New

American Security.

China is decades away from building a military as strong as America's, but it is

developing air, naval and missile capabilities that could challenge U.S.

supremacy in the Pacific — and with it, America's ability to protect important

shipping lanes and allies such as Japan and South Korea.

China maintains it does not have offensive intentions and is only protecting its

own interests: The shipping lanes are also vital to China's export-dependent

economy. There are potential flash points, though, notably Taiwan and clusters

of tiny islands that both China and other Asian nations claim as their

territory.

The U.S. Navy's pursuit of drones is a recognition of the need for new weapons

and strategies to deal not only with China but a changing military landscape

generally.

" r-based unmanned aircraft systems have tremendous potential, especially

in increasing the range and persistence of our intelligence, surveillance and

reconnaissance operations, as well as our ability to strike targets quickly, "

Van Buskirk said at the 7th Fleet's headquarters in Yokosuka, Japan.

His fleet boasts one carrier — the USS Washington — along with about 60

other ships and 40,000 sailors and Marines.

Experts say the drones could be used on any of the 11 U.S. carriers worldwide

and are not being developed exclusively as a counterbalance to China.

But China's reported progress in missile development appears to make the need

for them more urgent.

The DF 21D " carrier killer " missile is designed for launch from land with enough

accuracy to hit a moving aircraft carrier at a distance of more than 900 miles

(1,500 kilometers). Though still unproven — and some analysts say overrated — no

other country has such a weapon.

Current Navy fighter jets can only operate about 500 nautical miles (900

kilometers) from a target, leaving a carrier within range of the Chinese

missile.

Drones would have an unrefueled combat radius of 1,500 nautical miles (2,780

kilometers) and could remain airborne for 50 to 100 hours — versus the 10 hour

maximum for a pilot, according to a 2008 paper by analysts Tom Ehrhard and

Work at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Work is now

an undersecretary of the Navy.

" Introducing a new aircraft that promises to let the strike group do its work

from beyond the maximum effective firing range of the anti-ship ballistic

missile — or beyond its range entirely — represents a considerable boost in

defensive potential for the carrier strike group, " said Holmes of the U.S.

Naval War College.

Northrop Grumman has a six-year, $635.8 million contract to develop two of the

planes, with more acquisitions expected if they work. A prototype of its X-47B

took a maiden 29-minute flight in February at Air Force Base in

California. Initial testing on carriers is planned for 2013.

Other makers including Boeing and Lockheed are also in the game. General Atomics

Aeronautical Systems, Inc. — the maker of the Predator drones used in the Afghan

war — carried out wind tunnel tests in February. Spokeswoman Kasitz

said it was too early to divulge further details.

Some experts warn carrier-based drones are still untested and stress that

Chinese advances have not rendered carriers obsolete.

" Drones, if they work, are just the next tech leap. As long as there is a need

for tactical aviation launched from the sea, carriers will be useful weapons of

war, " said McDevitt, a former commandant of the National War College in

Washington, D.C., and a retired rear admiral whose commands included an aircraft

carrier battle group.

Some analysts also note that China may be reluctant to instigate any fighting

that could interfere with its trade.

Nan Li, an expert at the U.S. Naval War College's China Maritime Studies

Institute, doubts China would try to attack a U.S. carrier.

" I am a skeptic of such an interpretation of Chinese strategy, " he said. " But I

do think the X-47B may still be a useful preventive capability for worst-case

scenarios. "

The Air Force and Navy both sponsored a project to develop carrier-based drones

in the early 2000s, but the Air Force pulled out in 2005, leaving the Navy to

fund the research.

Adm. Roughhead, chief of naval operations, said last summer that the

current goal of getting a handful of unmanned bombers in action by 2018 is " too

damn slow. "

" Seriously, we've got to have a sense of urgency about getting this stuff out

there, " he told a conference. " It could fundamentally change how we think of

naval aviation. "