Yemen’s Leader Is Said to Plan Return ‘in Days’

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/07/world/middleeast/07yemen.html

Yemen's Leader Is Said to Plan Return `in Days'

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR

Published: June 6, 2011

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The health of Yemen's embattled president, Ali Abdullah

Saleh, has improved enough that he plans to return home " in a few days " after

receiving medical treatment here, the vice president and acting leader of Yemen

told American and European diplomats on Monday, according to a Yemeni official.

The vice president, Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi, took over as temporary leader

after Mr. Saleh, who has been resisting calls to step down for months, left the

country hurriedly on Saturday for Saudi Arabia after a deadly attack on his

presidential compound the day before.

According to the Yemeni official, who requested anonymity because he was not

authorized to comment, Mr. Hadi met with Western diplomats as well as members of

Yemen's ruling party on Monday in Sana, the capital, and described Mr. Saleh's

plan to return.

Mr. Saleh and his advisers are adept political players, and it is possible that

they are simply posturing to win the best deal from foreign patrons and Yemenis

who are trying to ease him out after 33 years of autocratic rule. But the

officials' contention that Mr. Saleh would return to power underscores the

difficulties Saudi and American officials face in trying to resolve the standoff

before Yemen's always poisonous politics tip the country into broader conflict,

a grim prospect for its northern neighbor and the United States. Yemen is

already home to an active branch of Al Qaeda that has tried to carry out

terrorist attacks on the United States and that seeks to overthrow the Saudi

monarchy.

On Sunday, thousands of antigovernment protesters celebrated in the streets of

Sana, setting off fireworks and slaughtering cows to mark the departure of Mr.

Saleh, despite new uncertainty about when — and even whether — he would agree to

a lasting transfer of power.

" He is awake and he is conscious; he is in charge, " said a close adviser who was

with him during Friday's attack, likely by a mortar shell or rocket, and is

being treated at the same military hospital in Riyadh.

On Sunday, Obama administration officials said that the United States was

pressing Mr. Saleh and his allies to accept a deal recently negotiated by Arab

states, including Saudi Arabia, that would allow him to leave power in exchange

for immunity. Several officials hinted that the United States might be willing

to throw in financial incentives to induce Mr. Saleh to relinquish the

presidency for good.

Some analysts said Saudi Arabia's leadership would not allow Mr. Saleh to return

to power after months of frustrating efforts to cajole him to step down amid

growing instability. And on Sunday, Western diplomats and Arab experts said they

expected that Saudi and American officials were maneuvering behind the scenes to

win agreement for a transition plan in Yemen before Mr. Saleh could return home

to undermine their efforts.

But there is one wild card in those calculations: many Saudis have long

supported Mr. Saleh because of his skill in suppressing dissent, and it was

unclear if they were prepared to unseat him so abruptly. The original transition

plan built in some time before he had to leave office to allow for an orderly

succession.

" They're really in the eye of the hurricane, and it's very hard to predict where

events will go now, " said Schmitz, a Yemen specialist at Towson

University in Baltimore.

There were worrisome signs on Sunday that Yemen's turmoil was far from over.

Although a cease-fire to end fierce fighting in the capital between government

forces and tribal rivals working with the opposition was mainly holding, mortar

fire could still be heard in at least one neighborhood. And although a Yemeni

official said some family members left Sana with Mr. Saleh on Saturday, several

sons and nephews who control the powerful military and intelligence services

remained behind.

Mr. Hadi, the vice president, has taken over as temporary leader, but analysts

say he may have trouble maintaining control, especially if some factions see the

president's absence as a chance to finally dislodge him and his family. Many of

Mr. Saleh's enemies are well armed, including a general who recently defected

with many of his troops in sympathy with the pro-democracy protesters.

Saudi leaders, who have long meddled in Yemeni politics, were largely quiet on

Sunday about their efforts to enable political change in Yemen. The silence was

a possible indication of the bad choices they were left with when the attack on

Mr. Saleh's compound instantly reshaped a leadership debate that had been raging

for months as massive street protests whittled away at the president's standing.

While the Saudis — who are dedicated to enforcing stability in the region — have

told Mr. Saleh he should go, the sudden change made it more difficult to

structure an orderly handover of power and eventual elections.

Abdullah Hamidaddin, a political scientist, said Saudi Arabia had wanted Mr.

Saleh to leave office because its leaders thought that would bring " less

bloodshed, less unpredictability. " But, he said, " they wanted it in a way that

does not create a power vacuum and an unpredictable future. "

Mr. Saleh's troubles started in January when revolts in Tunisia and Egypt ousted

longtime dictators and inspired pro-democracy protesters in Yemen. The turmoil

got markedly worse in recent weeks when the Ahmar family, the tribal rivals who

helped bankroll the demonstrations, engaged in street battles with government

forces — turning parts of Sana into virtual war zones.

Mr. Saleh blamed the Ahmars and their militia for the attack on his compound,

but the Ahmars denied involvement.

On Sunday, Yemeni officials did not want to go into details about Mr. Saleh's

wounds. But Arab news reports quoted Saudi medical officials as saying he had

had two operations to remove pieces of wood after an explosion at the

presidential compound.

Some analysts and diplomats were optimistic on Sunday that the latest Yemeni

crisis would be resolved peacefully.

They said that although the Saudi-brokered cease-fire in the capital had not

held perfectly, the relative calm was an indication that both sides saw that

neither had a clear advantage.

Still, the many rivals for power in Yemen have venomous relations that had been

held in check only with Saudi influence and Mr. Saleh's adroit political

maneuvering, which included pitting tribes against one another when convenient.

The rivalries include one between Mr. Saleh's eldest son, Ahmed, who leads the

powerful Republican Guard, and Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar, the general who recently

defected. (The general is not related to the Ahmars who have been fighting the

government.)

But protesters in Sana seemed oblivious on Sunday to the intrigue that could

derail their hopes for democratic change. In a part of the city they have named

Change Square, some families brought their children to see what one called " the

party of Saleh's departure. "

A particularly hopeful chant echoed one popular in Egypt's successful

revolution. " The people, at last, defeated the regime, " the protesters yelled.