Zvi Bar'el / Turkey's fallout with Syria overshadows the Gaza flotilla

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02:16 16.06.11

Latest update 02:16 16.06.11

Zvi Bar'el / Turkey's fallout with Syria overshadows the Gaza flotilla

The 'dear friend' Syria once was to Turkey has replaced Gaza as a threat to

Turkish foreign policy and - more importantly - to Turkey itself.

By Zvi Bar'el

The final decision on launching the Gaza flotilla may not have been made. The

difficulties are clear - they reflect the complex fallout for Turkey from the

situation in Syria.

Turkey has almost completely changed its position on Syria in light of the

regime's killings, torture and brutal repression of demonstrations. It used to

be that President Bashar Assad was a " dear friend " in the words of Turkish Prime

Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, the Turkish prime minister has now

changed his rhetoric in what may be a calculated and determined move. Erdogan

now describes Syrian policies as barbaric - and has even declared that Turkey

cannot come to Syria's aid in the U.N. Security Council if it continues with its

repression, which is sending thousands of refugees into Turkey.

Now, Syria has replaced Gaza - not just as a threat to Turkish foreign policy,

but, more importantly, as a threat to Turkey itself.

Demonstrations against Syrian repression are held every day. Only days ago the

Turkish public gave Erdogan and his party a sweeping reelection victory. And the

Turks are wondering what their government will do in the face of what the

Syrians are suffering.

Thousands of Syrians have fled to Turkey, and there are fears that many

thousands more will turn to Turkey as a refuge. It's the last thing the country

needs.

The government wants to go forward with its own internal policies, and not have

to deal with Syria's problems. Turkey also needs to take into account another

possibility: The Syrian regime might attack rebel Kurdish areas and send a

stream of Kurdish refugees fleeing into Turkey.

Erdogan, who suffered an electoral blow at the hands of Turkish Kurds, cannot

prevent Kurds in Syria from entering Turkey if they decide to flee after he

granted asylum to other Syrian citizens.

In this situation Turkey is being forced to take a consistent stand on Syria, to

continue applying pressure on Assad and to join the U.S. and European stance -

and not that of Russia and China - to force Assad to end the repression and

enact reforms. Turkey, like the U.S. and the Europeans, no longer believes there

is a possibility of reaching a compromise solution with the Syrian regime.

Ankara justifiably fears the new Gaza flotilla is likely to distract public

opinion in Turkey and the rest of the world from the Syrian question. But the

flotilla has become a marginal issue in light of the main problem of enlisting

support against the Syrian government. The Americans are applying pressure on

the Turks to stop the flotilla, but such pressure existed before the revolt in

Syria began. Meanwhile, Turkey stands fast in its demands for an Israeli apology

and compensation for what happened to the Mavi Mamara.