Bahrain crisis: 'Saudi soldier and protester shot

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Bahrain crisis: 'Saudi soldier and protester shot

Tuesday 15 March 2011

Twelve days ago, Bahrain's protesters said they would ask for help from Iran if

Saudi soldiers entered the country. Will Tehran intervene? Not likely, an expert

on Iran tells Channel 4 News.

On Tuesday, more than 1,000 Saudi troops entered the tiny island state, as did

soldiers from other Gulf ation Council (GCC) states, including the United

Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Kuwait. The troops are from the Gulf countries'

Peninsula Shield Force and Bahrain authorities have themselves sent more than

100 armoured vehicles to Pearl Roundabout, the epicentre of the anti-government

protests that have thrown the nation into chaos.

Saudi and fellow Gulf troops entered Bahrain following a request from its

neighbour. Riyadh said that " any harm done to the security of a member state is

considered a harm done to the security of all GCC members. "

But Bahrain's protesters denounced the deployment of troops, with the largest

Shi'ite party, Wefaq, saying that any intervention by Gulf Arab forces is a

declaration of war and occupation.

And on 3 March, opposition leader, Hassan Mushaima, said: " If Saudi military

interfere in the internal affairs of Bahrain, in this case Iranian army has

right to interfere Bahrain affairs to support protesters.

" If Bahrain's ruling system resorting help from Saudi Arabia, in this case it is

the right of opposition groups to appeal for help from Iran. "

Iran has echoed the protesters' criticism, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin

Mehmanparast saying: " The presence of foreign troops and meddling into Bahrain's

internal affairs will only further complicate the issue. "

Hours after the statement, Bahrain's ambassador to Iran was recalled to Manama.

The presence of US-backed Saudi Arabia in Bahrain is sure to perturb Tehran, but

Arshin Dr Adib-Moghaddan from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and an

expert on Iranian foreign policy, told Channel 4 News that the island does not

have the potential to be another Vietnam, i.e. a proxy war between the US and

Iran.

" If there would be a sustained period of confrontation, and systematic killings

of the demonstrators, Iran may be dragged into the conflict. [However] I don't

think we would see Iranian boots on the ground; a major diplomatic escalation is

more likely, " said Dr Adib-Moghaddan, the author of Iran in World Politics.

" Neither Iran nor the US has an interest in a proxy war. In fact both the Obama

administration and the Iranian Foreign Ministry say the same: Bahrainis have

legitimate demands that need to be met by the monarchy. It is ironic and

indicative of a failed strategy towards Iran, that the country can not be

included in a solution to the conflict in Bahrain and elsewhere in the region

for that matter. "

Indeed, the White House has been non-committal and reserved with its comments

about GCC forces entering Bahrain; a message consistent with its remote stance

on the Arab uprisings in general.

On Tuesday, White House spokesman Tommy Vietor has said that the US does not

consider the entry of Saudi Arabian security forces into Bahrain an invasion,

but urged Bahrain to exercise restraint.

" We urge our GCC partners to show restraint and respect the rights of the people

of Bahrain, and to act in a way that supports dialogue instead of undermining

it, " Mr Vietor said.

In a separate statement later, he articultaed the White House's call for Bahrain

to find a political solution to its problems and said the use of force and

violence from any side would only worsen the situation.

" One thing is clear: there is no military solution to the problems in Bahrain. A

political solution is necessary and all sides must now work to produce a

dialogue that addresses the needs of all of Bahrain's citizens. " Both Iran and

the US are in difficult positions in Bahrain. In the case of the former, a

failure to act in Bahrain could be perceived as a display of weakness.

" Iran is likely to step up its rhetoric in accordance with events on the ground

in Bahrain. It will use a rhetoric of strength to forestall to be perceived as

weak, " said Dr Adib-Moghaddan. And among other concerns for the US, its 5th

Fleet's basing in jeopardy.

But whatever happens in Bahrain, it is unlikely to trigger a physical conflict

between Iran and the US: there is too much to lose, said Dr Adib-Moghaddan.

" With Iran, it is first gear: diplomacy, second gear: multilateral/regional

diplomacy, third gear: regional 'gunboat' diplomacy, and then the options are

exhausted. "