Why Washington is at a loss over Syria

[Guest guest]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12943622

Why Washington is at a loss over Syria

1 April 2011 Last updated at 21:22 ET

The US seems to be scratching its head over how to handle anti-government

protests in Syria, which is not an ally but is a big regional player, says the

BBC's Kim Ghattas in Washington.

The White House has again condemned the use of violence against citizens

demonstrating in Syria - but this time it included a line which was absent in

its statement of 24 March.

The Obama administration on Friday said it applauded the " courage and dignity of

the Syrian people " .

The Arab revolutions have all been different but similar, and Washington's

reaction too has followed roughly the same script but with some variations.

Apart from a constant mantra of support for universal values, statements by the

White House or President Barack Obama have followed a similar crescendo pattern,

starting with condemnation of the violence by governments, followed by applause

for the protesters.

The next level has been determined by a calculation taking into account the size

of the demonstrations, the intensity of the repression and American interests.

In Egypt, there was a call for an orderly transition when the US determined it

could do without Hosni Mubarak; in Libya, there was a direct call on Muammar

Gaddafi to leave when it became clear that allowing him to stay in any way posed

even greater challenges than pushing him out.

In Bahrain, where Sunni rulers have faced off with Shia protesters, there have

been continued calls for dialogue from an administration wary of losing what it

sees as a rampart against growing Iranian influence in the region.

It's still unclear how the wind will blow when it comes to Syria, in terms of

whether the protests will continue to grow in strength and the repression become

bloodier but also whether the US will eventually call for Bashar al-Assad's

departure or issue endless calls for dialogue while trying to push for internal

reforms.

Washington seems at a loss about how to handle a potential revolution in a

country which is not an ally but which presents it with both real risks and

possible opportunities for regional US policies.

The US was probably hoping that Mr Assad would offer the demonstrators enough

concessions to appease them when he gave an address this week.

Instead, the Syrian president stared them down, vowed to fight till the end and

accused Israel and indirectly the US, of being behind the unrest.

'Syria will change'

Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy,

said the speech was a severe blow to Washington's Syria policy so far, which has

been partly based on the assumption that Syria was interested in making peace

with Israel.

Washington believes this would allow it to peel Syria away from its allies in

Tehran.

It's an analysis long supported by Senator Kerry, who last month said that

if the peace process could be moved forward, Syria would have a different set of

options than those it is sticking to now.

Syria, on the US state department list of state sponsors of terror, currently

supports radical groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, is suspected of developing a

covert nuclear programme and has in the past been accused of feeding the

violence in Iraq by supporting a network of foreign fighters.

In the event of peace talks, said Mr Kerry in a talk at the Carnegie Endowment

for International Peace, " my judgment is that Syria will move, Syria will

change, as it embraces a legitimate relationship with the United States and the

West and the economic opportunity that comes with it " .

Last week, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton indicated Washington did not

see Mr Assad in the same light as his father, Hafez, who ruthlessly crushed a

Muslim Brotherhood uprising in 1982 in the northern city of Hama, killing

thousands.

" There is a different leader in Syria now. Many of the members of Congress of

both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he's

a reformer, " she said.

Mrs Clinton did not say the administration agreed that Mr Assad was a reformer

and American officials have repeatedly expressed deep scepticism, but she did

not add any caveats to the statement, despite the fact that the Obama

administration has nothing to show for its efforts to engage the Syrian

president for the last two years.

" Assad is not a reformer, " said New Jersey Democratic Congressman Ackerman

in a scathing statement on Friday.

" Anyone who thinks so is at best fooling themselves, and at worst, serving as a

useful idiot to a murderous dictator and a proud sponsor of terrorism. "

Senators McCain, a Republican, and Joe Lieberman, an independent, this week

said a new Syria strategy was needed and " urged the administration to work with

members of the international community to make clear to President Assad that if

he continues on the path of repression and violence, it will carry serious

consequences " .

Sanctions pressure

It's likely that Mr Assad will have his own warning about serious consequences.

In the past, whenever Syria has come under pressure, Mr Assad has highlighted

the positive role his country could play in stabilising Lebanon, Iraq and the

Palestinian territories as a subtle way of hinting he also had the means to sew

chaos.

Some analysts have suggested the crisis in Syria is an opportunity for the US to

neutralise Damascus's ability to use those cards.

A Democratic aide on Capitol Hill said that if Mr Assad were to fall it might be

a positive development because it could deprive Hezbollah and Hamas of crucial

support.

Mr Tabler said Syria was not playing a positive role anyway and he dispelled the

notion that the US or the international community had no leverage over Syria.

He said sanctions currently in place on Syria could be used to pressure Mr Assad

and his inner circle into changing their calculations.

[Guest guest]

" The US seems to be scratching its head over how to handle anti-government

protests in Syria, which is not an ally but is a big regional player, says the

BBC's Kim Ghattas in Washington. "

Maybe if they handle Syria the way they are handling Libya, everything will be

fine.

Yeah, that's the ticket.

Administrator