As Egypt boils, the fallout could echo for U.S., Mideast

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Posted on Monday, 01.31.11

As Egypt boils, the fallout could echo for U.S., Mideast

With large protests planned for Tuesday, the Egyptian political crisis has

far-reaching impact for the United States in the Middle East.

BY WARREN P. STROBEL

McClatchy News Service

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. faces its most precarious moment in the Middle East in

years, with the dangers to U.S. interests growing as a tense standoff drags on

between tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters and Egyptian President

Hosni Mubarak's embattled regime.

President Barack Obama and his aides are hoping for what they call an ``orderly

transition,'' with a smooth exit for Mubarak and a hand-over of power to a

transitional government that organizes new, fair elections.

The massive protests planned for Tuesday could in theory lead to this scenario

for the most populous Arab country. The grimmer scenario is a lengthy crisis

that debilitates Egypt further and ends in a military coup, anarchy or general

chaos.

``I think there's a lot to be scared about . . . more to be scared about than to

be thrilled about,'' said retired U.S. diplomat Mack, now with the Middle

East Institute. If things go badly wrong, ``you could have Somalia on the

Mediterranean.''

``The longer the situation wends on, the more dangerous it becomes for American

foreign policy,'' said J. Carpenter, who was a State Department official

dealing with Muslim democracy issues under former President W. Bush.

The State Department Monday sent former ambassador Wisner to Cairo to urge

Mubarak's government to embrace political overhauls.

``At this point, we clearly recognize what happens in Egypt will have broad

ramifications'' in the Middle East, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told

McClatchy. But what those ramifications will be aren't clear, he said, because

``we don't know the end of the story.''

Speaking privately, because of diplomatic sensitivities, a senior U.S. official

acknowledged that Washington's efforts to revive the stalled Arab-Israeli peace

process could be hurt. ``Some of the participants are probably going to be

distracted for a bit,'' he said.

U.S. STANDING

The Egyptian crisis comes atop a host of other developments that have challenged

U.S. standing in the region. Iran has expanded its influence, and its proxy,

Hezbollah, has chosen Lebanon's next prime minister. Iraq teeters between

stability and renewed violence.

But Egypt and its military have long been a major lever of U.S. influence in the

Muslim Middle East. The country has been a key counterterrorism ally, quietly

supported a tough position on Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program, and even

assisted with U.S. military deployments to support the 2003 invasion of Iraq,

despite opposing the war itself.

While a fundamentalist takeover in Cairo seems unlikely, ``there's a possibility

that whatever new government emerges in Egypt will distance itself somewhat from

the United States'' and from Israel, said Michele Dunne, a senior associate at

the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Dunne was one of several academics who met with White House officials Monday

morning to discuss Egypt policy.

Obama finds himself in the painful position of trying to align the United States

with Egyptians' demands for democratic overhauls, while trying to encourage

Mubarak to leave -- without actually saying so.

``The history of the 20th Century is littered with cases where we got out in

front'' of popular protests, said a senior U.S. diplomat, explaining the White

House's caution. ``The Hungarian uprising is probably the most notorious

result,'' said the diplomat, who wasn't authorized to speak publicly. The U.S.

encouraged a 1956 anti-communist revolt in Hungary, but was powerless to stop

the Soviet army from crushing it.

The ``ideal scenario,'' Dunne said, is one in which the U.S. assists the

transition to democracy for both Tunisia -- whose autocratic leader was ousted

two weeks ago, sparking the latest unrest -- and for Egypt.

Washington could also use the opportunity to pressure other allies in the region

-- such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan -- to embrace the political overhauls they've

resisted, she said.

Dunne said she and her colleagues counseled White House advisors that ``they

don't want to be out in front of events . . . [but] they also should be very

careful not to be saying anything that suggests the United States is propping up

Mubarak.''

TURNING POINT

A turning point in the crisis could come early Tuesday, with opposition leaders

promising to bring one million people into the streets of Egypt's cities.

While the upheaval in Egypt itself was a surprise, even after the ouster of

longtime Tunisian leader Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, few experts expect other

leaders to fall like dominoes.

And if the confrontation in Cairo devolves into chaos, strongman leaders in

countries such as Algeria, Libya, Sudan and Syria are even less likely to

embrace a political opening, said Mack, the former U.S. diplomat who served in

Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon and elsewhere.

``I don't think it's a `Berlin Wall' moment for the rest of the region,

regardless of what happens,'' said Carpenter, referring to the toppling of

Eastern European governments following the 1989 opening of the Berlin Wall.

The region's monarchies, such as those in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morocco, may

be in a stronger position than republics like Libya and Syria, whose legitimacy

``rests on a more narrow basis,'' he said.