South China Sea disputes could lead to war in Asia: think tank

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South China Sea disputes could lead to war in Asia: think tank

By Grubel | Reuters – 3 hrs ago

CANBERRA (Reuters) - Risks are growing that incidents at sea involving China

could lead to war in Asia, an Australian policy think tank warned on Tuesday.

Concentrated on the South and East China seas, the risk-taking behavior of the

Chinese military, resource needs, and greater assertiveness, raised the

possibility of armed conflict that could draw in the United States and other

powers, the Lowy Institute said in a report.

" The sea lanes of Indo-Pacific Asia are becoming more crowded, contested and

vulnerable to armed strife. Naval and air forces are being strengthened amid

shifting balances of economic strategic weight, " report authors Rory Medcalf and

Raoul Heinrichs wrote.

" China's frictions with the United States, Japan and India are likely to persist

and intensify. As the number and tempo of incidents increases, so does the

likelihood that an episode will escalate to armed confrontation, diplomatic

crisis or possibly even conflict, " the report said.

The study on major powers and maritime security in Indo-Pacific Asia was

published as China prepares to unveil its first aircraft carrier, perhaps this

week, a development has caused worries in the region about China's ongoing

military expansion.

Earlier this month, China sent its biggest civilian patrol ship to the South

China Sea. That rattled the Philippines, which makes competing claims to some

waters thought to hold vast oil and gas reserves.

On Monday, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution that deplored China's use of

force against Vietnamese and Philippine ships in South China Sea.

" DANGER ZONE "

Medcalf and Heinrichs said more maritime patrols and intrusive surveillance,

coupled with nationalism and resources disputes, all make it harder to manage

arguments over maritime sovereignty.

" All of these factors are making Asia a danger zone for incidents at sea:

close-range encounters involving vessels and aircraft from competing powers,

typically in sensitive or contested zones, " the report said.

The report detailed tensions between China and Japan, stemming from the April

2010 Chinese naval exercise near Japan's southern Okinawa islands, followed by

Japan's arrest of a Chinese fisherman, whose trawler rammed a Japanese

coastguard vessel.

Those incidents provoked a diplomatic crisis and saw China cut its exports of

crucial rare earth minerals to Japan.

Despite initial signs of warmer bilateral ties following the March tsunami and

nuclear crisis in Japan, security relations remain tense after Japan a month

earlier scrambled fighter jets when Chinese surveillance planes approached

disputed islands.

" Helicopter buzzing incidents have continued, with Japan deploring as especially

insensitive an instance that occurred in the weeks following the March

disaster, " the report said.

It said Beijing has caused concern in other Southeast Asian nations over its

" core interest " claim on the South China Sea, and in Australia about China's

possible future security behavior, while there was widespread speculation that

competition between India and China at sea was " only a matter of time. "

Medcalf and Heinrichs said new efforts were needed to build regional confidence

and to involve China in a continued military dialogue with the United States and

Japan.

They also said maritime security hotlines were needed between the U.S. and

China, and Japan and China, to allow real-time responses to any incidents.

(Reporting by Grubel; Editing by Balazs Koranyi and Magnowski)