Threat of civil war looms in Yemen

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Threat of civil war looms in Yemen

PATRICK MARTIN

SANAA— From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

Published Monday, Feb. 28, 2011 7:46PM EST

Last updated Monday, Feb. 28, 2011 11:00PM EST

It was never supposed to come to this.

Just a few short weeks ago, Ali Abdullah Saleh, President of Yemen since Jimmy

was president of the United States, was basking in the power that comes

from heavy patronage of the country's influential tribes, along with military

support from the United States and several billion dollars of no-questions-asked

financing from Saudi Arabia.

Like Hosni Mubarak, Mr. Saleh even had a son, Ahmed Ali Saleh, positioned to

succeed his father in office.

Now, the almost-65-year-old is fighting to avoid the same political end as Mr.

Mubarak amid very real prospects of civil war, raising fears in the United

States and other Western countries that grow increasingly concerned about Yemen

becoming a staging ground for terrorism.

All because a pesky bunch of mostly young protesters have sought to emulate

protest groups in Tunisia and Egypt and trigger the ouster of Mr. Saleh.

The protesters, whose demonstrations in several cities have grown impressively

in size over the past 10 days, want free and fair elections, as Yemen once had,

an end to rampant corruption and, most of all, the exit of Mr. Saleh and his

family from the country.

Recognizing that the tsunami of protests across the Arab world gave these

demands new urgency, Mr. Saleh offered concession after concession. Two weeks

ago he announced he would not run in the 2013 election – the protesters were

unimpressed. Last week he offered a dialogue with the protesters – " a trick, "

the protesters called it. Monday he proposed that opposition parties join his

cabinet in a unity government – " Only when he [Mr. Saleh] is gone " was the

response.

What's a beleaguered President to do?

His early answer can be found just two kilometres down the road from the

protesters' camp outside the gates of Sanaa University.

There in the central Tahrir Square, named after the one in Cairo, is another

camp of demonstrators, but these are in favour of Mr. Saleh and his regime.

They've been there since the regime quickly set up large tents in the square

more than a week ago, pre-empting the anti-Saleh protesters' plan to occupy

Tahrir. Many are impoverished villagers and tribal members who come and stay

because of the free food and allegedly because of a small daily stipend. Most

carry menacing-looking clubs and a seeming willingness to use them.

To be fair, there are thousands of others, genuine supporters of the President,

who come to the square too, mostly after work and on Fridays.

Thousands of them and thousands of protesters down the road are expected to turn

out Tuesday for another " Day of Rage. "

Organizers on both sides fear there may be clashes.

But counterprotests and thugs may not be enough to save Mr. Saleh's presidency.

The President has said all along that the well-meaning students who started the

whole thing are being used, taken over, by other forces.

In that, he may have a point. A week ago, the young protesters were joined by a

number of opposition political parties, chief among them the Islah Party, a

group that includes a range of Islamists, as well as tribal, business and other

figures.

Then, on Saturday, some prominent tribal leaders, including the head of the

powerful Hashid tribal confederation, announced they were standing with the

protesters.

Both tribes and political parties could overwhelm the original protest groups,

if either chooses to do so. (Although neither of these groups are the ones Mr.

Saleh has been telling people are behind the protests. He says that southern

secessionists and al-Qaeda terrorists are the real powers behind the movement.)

" I am worried, I admit it, " acknowledged Adel as-Surabi, the 29-year-old medical

student who is the self-appointed spokesman for the revolution. Both the Islah

Party and the Hashid tribal group have the numbers and clout to " take us over, "

he said.

But he's taking the high road, for now. Both those and other opposition parties

are invited to join in Tuesday's big rally.

Beyond the protest, Mr. as-Surabi is worried about what will happen if their

little revolution actually succeeds. " I hope it won't mean civil war, " he said.

Abdul Ghani al-Iryani knows a lot about the political intrigues of Yemen: His

grandfather was president of Yemen in the 1960s and '70s. " I think we are close

to a civil war, " he said bluntly. " If the parties miscalculate, that's exactly

what's going to happen. "

The parties to which he refers are Mr. Saleh and his family, and the Hashid

tribal confederation/Islah Party group.

When the Hashid leader, Husayn al-Ahmar, announced Saturday he was joining the

protesters, he did so in the ancestral town of Amran north of Sanaa with more

than 10,000 armed tribesmen behind him, daring the government forces looking on

to try to stop them.

" It was a declaration of war, " said Mr. al-Iryani, a political analyst, noting

that Mr. al-Ahmar's brother, Hamid, a wealthy political leader in the Islah

Party, appears to be shaping a powerful new force.

As for Mr. Saleh, the President's statement on the weekend that he would defend

his regime " with every drop of blood " clearly " shows that he's not looking for a

graceful exit, " Mr. al-Iryani said.