Calif. Reports: Autism Epidemic Continues As Rate & Age of Increase Declines

[Guest guest]

Good news- even with record numbers- the overall rate of increase steadily decreases! AND many new cases are older children identified at school age. This means fewer cases in very young children despite major efforts to improve screening and diagnose early. Maybe this really is the beginning of the end of this epidemic.

Cheers!

Cherri Cary

According to data just released by the California Department of Developmental Services (DDS), during the 3rd. Quarter of 2006 (August through September), California added 841 new cases of autism to it's developmental services system, a number that represents the second highest quarterly reported number of new cases in the system's 37 year history.

In 1987 there were 2,778 cases in the system, by the end of 2002 the number had increased to 20,377, and today there are 31,853 persons with autism in the system.

Over 84% of all persons with autism in California's system are between the age of 3 and 21.

88% of the autism population currently live at home.

INCREASING RATE SLOWS DRAMATICALLY

In 1999, DDS released it's now famous and historic autism caseload report that documented a 273% increase in the number of new cases of autism entering California's developmental services system from 1987 through 1998.

In 2003, DDS followed up with an updated report that documented a 97% increase in the autism caseload over the 48 month period from December 1998 through December 2002.

ACCORDING TO DDS, DURING THE MOST RECENT 45 MONTH REPORTING PERIOD FROM JANUARY 2003 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2006, THERE HAS BEEN A 50% INCREASE IN THE AUTISM CASELOAD. THE RATE OF INCREASE HAS DECLINED BY NEARLY HALF OVER THE PREVIOUS LIKE REPORTING PERIOD. THE RATE OF INCREASE HAS SLOWED BY CLOSE TO HALF FROM 97% TO 50% DURING THE PAST 45 MONTHS.

LESS YOUNGER, MORE OLDER CHILDREN ENTERING SYSTEM

During the four year reporting period between October 2002 and October 2006 there has been a large increase in the 10-21 year old population in the system, while the younger, 3-9 year old cohort reflects the substantial, declining rate of increase as noted above. The largest increase has been in the 14-17 year olds (127%), while the smallest increase has been in the 22 year olds and older (35%). SEE CHART BELOW.

Reasons for this phenomenon could include the lessening burden of mercury in vaccines slowing the numbers of new young children entering the system, a tightening of eligibility criteria that took effect in July 2003 (see last paragraph), and Regional Centers responding to the pressure to qualify more older persons with higher functioning autism spectrum conditions.

One thing is for sure, the hidden hordes of adults with autism that needs to be accounted for in order to discredit the existence of an autism epidemic and an increasing incidence of autism have yet to come forward or be discovered.

TOTAL AGE BREAKDOWN 10/02 AND 10/06

October 2002 October 2006

3-5 3932 3-5 6188 57%

6-9 5697 6-9 8528 50%

10-13 3531 10-13 6157 74%

14-17 1732 14-17 3934 127%

18-21 1047 18-21 2021 93%

22> 3696 22> 4994 35%

In the 1960's through the 1970's, autism accounted for roughly 3% of the total number of new cases entering the system. Beginning in the late 1970's (1978-79) and early 1980's, the autism epidemic began, and the increase grew from 3% to 40% by July 2003. In July 2003 eligibility criteria was made more difficult for all categories of consumers, with subsequent devastating impacts on the numbers of persons with mental retardation, epilepsy, and cerebral palsy entering the system. By October 2003, autism accounted for 47% of all new intakes, and according to the latest DDS Report for the 3rd. Quarter of 2006, autism now accounts for an astonishing 76% of the intakes now entering California's developmental services system.

(Due to the nature of the eligibility regulations adopted in July 2003, autism has been far and away the least impacted category of conditions effected.) SEE ATTACHED CHART.

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I never endorse anything or anyone. Opinions expressed in what I send out may not be shared by me. Everything that I send out is for informational purposes only.

Thanks,

Val Dodd-Saraf

www.JP4HealthyLife.com

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