HIV data bloated: Survey

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HIV data bloated: Survey

Hyderabad, Jan. 27: The Administrative Staff College of India (Asci)

has found out that the official HIV estimates of National Aids

Control Organisation (Naco) in the country were two to three times

higher than the actual estimates. As per a population-based study

conducted by Asci, the number of HIV patients (between 15 and 49

years of age) in the country is only 30 to 35 lakhs as against the

estimate of 52 lakhs. In association with the department of

microbiology of Nizam's Institute of Medical Sciences, Asci

professors conducted HIV tests on a sample population in Guntur, the

most HIV-prone district in the State and analysed the data

scientifically.

The results were published under the provocative title, `Is the HIV

burden in India being overestimated?' in the international journals

Science and Bio Med Central recently. Mr Lalit Dandona who led the

study for Asck said that that the official estimates were based on

annual sentinel surveillance data collected from government run

clinics and high-risk groups. " To find the actual estimates we sampled

13,838 people from 66 rural and urban clusters in Guntur using a

stratified random method and conducted HIV tests, " he said.

The Asci discovered that the number of HIV patients was 1.79 per

cent, which is 2.5 times lesser than the official estimate of 4.38

per cent in Guntur. " The official method leads to gross

overestimation of the HIV burden in Guntur, " he added. " Estimates

from STI clinics, antenatal clinics and high risk groups are

generalised for the total population. "

As per Naco figures presented in 2005, there were 3.7 million HIV-

infected persons in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil

Nadu together. But the latest study hints that the actual figure

might only be around 1.5 millions to 2 millions. Naco claims that

there are 14.5 lakh HIV infected persons in AP. However, the Asci

study says it could be only 5.4 lakhs to 7.3 lakhs.

AP Aids Control Society Project director Ashok Kumar admitted that

he, too, was not comfortable with the traditional sentinel

surveillance system. " However it has been followed in the entire

country and we can't deviate, " he said. " Population-based study is

costly and we don't have that much funds. " Mr Ashok Kumar said there

was no need to fight over figures. " I am not disputing the scientific

basis of the Asci study, " he said. " One thing is sure. HIV prevalence

is high in India, Andhra Pradesh and Guntur. We should focus on

fighting it. " \

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