Environment in crisis--Independant article

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http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article338878.ece

Environment in crisis: 'We are past the point of no return'

Thirty years ago, the scientist Lovelock worked out that the

Earth possessed a planetary-scale control system which kept the

environment fit for life. He called it Gaia, and the theory has become

widely accepted. Now, he believes mankind's abuse of the environment

is making that mechanism work against us. His astonishing conclusion -

that climate change is already insoluble, and life on Earth will never

be the same again.

By McCarthy Environment Editor

Published: 16 January 2006

The world has already passed the point of no return for climate

change, and civilisation as we know it is now unlikely to survive,

according to Lovelock, the scientist and green guru who

conceived the idea of Gaia - the Earth which keeps itself fit for life.

In a profoundly pessimistic new assessment, published in today's

Independent, Professor Lovelock suggests that efforts to counter

global warming cannot succeed, and that, in effect, it is already too

late.

The world and human society face disaster to a worse extent, and on a

faster timescale, than almost anybody realises, he believes. He

writes: " Before this century is over, billions of us will die, and

the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic

where the climate remains tolerable. "

In making such a statement, far gloomier than any yet made by a

scientist of comparable international standing, Professor Lovelock

accepts he is going out on a limb. But as the man who conceived the

first wholly new way of looking at life on Earth since Darwin,

he feels his own analysis of what is happening leaves him no choice.

He believes that it is the self-regulating mechanism of Gaia itself -

increasingly accepted by other scientists worldwide, although they

prefer to term it the Earth System - which, perversely, will ensure

that the warming cannot be mastered.

This is because the system contains myriad feedback mechanisms which

in the past have acted in concert to keep the Earth much cooler than

it otherwise would be. Now, however, they will come together to

amplify the warming being caused by human activities such as transport

and industry through huge emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon

dioxide (CO2 ).

It means that the harmful consequences of human beings damaging the

living planet's ancient regulatory system will be non-linear - in

other words, likely to accelerate uncontrollably.

He terms this phenomenon " The Revenge of Gaia " and examines it in

detail in a new book with that title, to be published next month.

The uniqueness of the Lovelock viewpoint is that it is holistic,

rather than reductionist. Although he is a committed supporter of

current research into climate change, especially at Britain's Hadley

Centre, he is not looking at individual facets of how the climate

behaves, as other scientists inevitably are. Rather, he is looking at

how the whole control system of the Earth behaves when put under stress.

Professor Lovelock, who conceived the idea of Gaia in the 1970s while

examining the possibility of life on Mars for Nasa in the US, has been

warning of the dangers of climate change since major concerns about it

first began nearly 20 years ago.

He was one of a select group of scientists who gave an initial

briefing on global warming to Margaret Thatcher's Cabinet at 10

Downing Street in April 1989.

His concerns have increased steadily since then, as evidence of a

warming climate has mounted. For example, he shared the alarm of many

scientists at the news last September that the ice covering the Arctic

Ocean is now melting so fast that in 2005 it reached a historic low

point.

Two years ago he sparked a major controversy with an article in The

Independent calling on environmentalists to drop their long-standing

opposition to nuclear power, which does not produce the greenhouses

gases of conventional power stations.

Global warming was proceeding so fast that only a major expansion of

nuclear power could bring it under control, he said. Most of the Green

movement roundly rejected his call, and does so still.

Now his concerns have reached a peak - and have a new emphasis. Rather

than calling for further ways of countering climate change, he is

calling on governments in Britain and elsewhere to begin large-scale

preparations for surviving what he now sees as inevitable - in his own

phrase today, " a hell of a climate " , likely to be in Europe up to 8C

hotter than it is today.

In his book's concluding chapter, he writes: " What should a sensible

European government be doing now? I think we have little option but to

prepare for the worst, and assume that we have passed the threshold. "

And in today's Independent he writes: " We will do our best to survive,

but sadly I cannot see the United States or the emerging economies of

China and India cutting back in time, and they are the main source of

[CO2] emissions. The worst will happen ... "

He goes on: " We have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and

realise how little time is left to act, and then each community and

nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain

civilisation for as long as they can. " He believes that the world's

governments should plan to secure energy and food supplies in the

global hothouse, and defences against the expected rise in sea levels.

The scientist's vision of what human society may ultimately be reduced

to through climate change is " a broken rabble led by brutal warlords. "

Professor Lovelock draws attention to one aspect of the warming threat

in particular, which is that the expected temperature rise is

currently being held back artificially by a global aerosol - a layer

of dust in the atmosphere right around the planet's northern

hemisphere - which is the product of the world's industry.

This shields us from some of the sun's radiation in a phenomenon which

is known as " global dimming " and is thought to be holding the global

temperature down by several degrees. But with a severe industrial

downturn, the aerosol could fall out of the atmosphere in a very short

time, and the global temperature could take a sudden enormous leap

upwards.

One of the most striking ideas in his book is that of " a guidebook for

global warming survivors " aimed at the humans who would still be

struggling to exist after a total societal collapse.

Written, not in electronic form, but " on durable paper with

long-lasting print " , it would contain the basic accumulated scientific

knowledge of humanity, much of it utterly taken for granted by us now,

but originally won only after a hard struggle - such as our place in

the solar system, or the fact that bacteria and viruses cause

infectious diseases.

Rough guide to a planet in jeopardy

Global warming, caused principally by the large-scale emissions of

industrial gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), is almost certainly the

greatest threat that mankind has ever faced, because it puts a

question mark over the very habitability of the Earth.

Over the coming decades soaring temperatures will mean agriculture may

become unviable over huge areas of the world where people are already

poor and hungry; water supplies for millions or even billions may

fail. Rising sea levels will destroy substantial coastal areas in

low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, at the very moment when their

populations are mushrooming. Numberless environmental refugees will

overwhelm the capacity of any agency, or indeed any country, to cope,

while modern urban infrastructure will face devastation from powerful

extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina which hit New

Orleans last summer.

The international community accepts the reality of global warming,

supported by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In

its last report, in 2001, the IPCC said global average temperatures

were likely to rise by up to 5.8C by 2100. In high latitudes, such as

Britain, the rise is likely to be much higher, perhaps 8C. The warming

seems to be proceeding faster than anticipated and in the IPCC's next

report, 2007, the timescale may be shortened. Yet there still remains

an assumption that climate change is controllable, if CO2 emissions

can be curbed. Lovelock is warning: think again.

'The Revenge of Gaia' by Lovelock is published by Penguin on 2

February, price £16.99

The world has already passed the point of no return for climate

change, and civilisation as we know it is now unlikely to survive,

according to Lovelock, the scientist and green guru who

conceived the idea of Gaia - the Earth which keeps itself fit for life.

In a profoundly pessimistic new assessment, published in today's

Independent, Professor Lovelock suggests that efforts to counter

global warming cannot succeed, and that, in effect, it is already too

late.

The world and human society face disaster to a worse extent, and on a

faster timescale, than almost anybody realises, he believes. He

writes: " Before this century is over, billions of us will die, and

the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic

where the climate remains tolerable. "

In making such a statement, far gloomier than any yet made by a

scientist of comparable international standing, Professor Lovelock

accepts he is going out on a limb. But as the man who conceived the

first wholly new way of looking at life on Earth since Darwin,

he feels his own analysis of what is happening leaves him no choice.

He believes that it is the self-regulating mechanism of Gaia itself -

increasingly accepted by other scientists worldwide, although they

prefer to term it the Earth System - which, perversely, will ensure

that the warming cannot be mastered.

This is because the system contains myriad feedback mechanisms which

in the past have acted in concert to keep the Earth much cooler than

it otherwise would be. Now, however, they will come together to

amplify the warming being caused by human activities such as transport

and industry through huge emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon

dioxide (CO2 ).

It means that the harmful consequences of human beings damaging the

living planet's ancient regulatory system will be non-linear - in

other words, likely to accelerate uncontrollably.

He terms this phenomenon " The Revenge of Gaia " and examines it in

detail in a new book with that title, to be published next month.

The uniqueness of the Lovelock viewpoint is that it is holistic,

rather than reductionist. Although he is a committed supporter of

current research into climate change, especially at Britain's Hadley

Centre, he is not looking at individual facets of how the climate

behaves, as other scientists inevitably are. Rather, he is looking at

how the whole control system of the Earth behaves when put under stress.

Professor Lovelock, who conceived the idea of Gaia in the 1970s while

examining the possibility of life on Mars for Nasa in the US, has been

warning of the dangers of climate change since major concerns about it

first began nearly 20 years ago.

He was one of a select group of scientists who gave an initial

briefing on global warming to Margaret Thatcher's Cabinet at 10

Downing Street in April 1989.

His concerns have increased steadily since then, as evidence of a

warming climate has mounted. For example, he shared the alarm of many

scientists at the news last September that the ice covering the Arctic

Ocean is now melting so fast that in 2005 it reached a historic low

point.

Two years ago he sparked a major controversy with an article in The

Independent calling on environmentalists to drop their long-standing

opposition to nuclear power, which does not produce the greenhouses

gases of conventional power stations.

Global warming was proceeding so fast that only a major expansion of

nuclear power could bring it under control, he said. Most of the Green

movement roundly rejected his call, and does so still.

Now his concerns have reached a peak - and have a new emphasis. Rather

than calling for further ways of countering climate change, he is

calling on governments in Britain and elsewhere to begin large-scale

preparations for surviving what he now sees as inevitable - in his own

phrase today, " a hell of a climate " , likely to be in Europe up to 8C

hotter than it is today.

In his book's concluding chapter, he writes: " What should a sensible

European government be doing now? I think we have little option but to

prepare for the worst, and assume that we have passed the threshold. "

And in today's Independent he writes: " We will do our best to survive,

but sadly I cannot see the United States or the emerging economies of

China and India cutting back in time, and they are the main source of

[CO2] emissions. The worst will happen ... "

He goes on: " We have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and

realise how little time is left to act, and then each community and

nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain

civilisation for as long as they can. " He believes that the world's

governments should plan to secure energy and food supplies in the

global hothouse, and defences against the expected rise in sea levels.

The scientist's vision of what human society may ultimately be reduced

to through climate change is " a broken rabble led by brutal warlords. "

Professor Lovelock draws attention to one aspect of the warming threat

in particular, which is that the expected temperature rise is

currently being held back artificially by a global aerosol - a layer

of dust in the atmosphere right around the planet's northern

hemisphere - which is the product of the world's industry.

This shields us from some of the sun's radiation in a phenomenon which

is known as " global dimming " and is thought to be holding the global

temperature down by several degrees. But with a severe industrial

downturn, the aerosol could fall out of the atmosphere in a very short

time, and the global temperature could take a sudden enormous leap

upwards.

One of the most striking ideas in his book is that of " a guidebook for

global warming survivors " aimed at the humans who would still be

struggling to exist after a total societal collapse.

Written, not in electronic form, but " on durable paper with

long-lasting print " , it would contain the basic accumulated scientific

knowledge of humanity, much of it utterly taken for granted by us now,

but originally won only after a hard struggle - such as our place in

the solar system, or the fact that bacteria and viruses cause

infectious diseases.

Rough guide to a planet in jeopardy

Global warming, caused principally by the large-scale emissions of

industrial gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), is almost certainly the

greatest threat that mankind has ever faced, because it puts a

question mark over the very habitability of the Earth.

Over the coming decades soaring temperatures will mean agriculture may

become unviable over huge areas of the world where people are already

poor and hungry; water supplies for millions or even billions may

fail. Rising sea levels will destroy substantial coastal areas in

low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, at the very moment when their

populations are mushrooming. Numberless environmental refugees will

overwhelm the capacity of any agency, or indeed any country, to cope,

while modern urban infrastructure will face devastation from powerful

extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina which hit New

Orleans last summer.

The international community accepts the reality of global warming,

supported by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In

its last report, in 2001, the IPCC said global average temperatures

were likely to rise by up to 5.8C by 2100. In high latitudes, such as

Britain, the rise is likely to be much higher, perhaps 8C. The warming

seems to be proceeding faster than anticipated and in the IPCC's next

report, 2007, the timescale may be shortened. Yet there still remains

an assumption that climate change is controllable, if CO2 emissions

can be curbed. Lovelock is warning: think again.

'The Revenge of Gaia' by Lovelock is published by Penguin on 2

February, price £16.99